Author Topic: Nuke or Not? (Read 4158 times)

Ben · « **on:** January 06, 2016, 04:53:01 PM »

So what do you guys think -- did the midget blow a nuke or not? From what I read, the associated earthquake indicated it was artificially induced, so something likely blew up. Whether it was a hydrogen bomb, atomic bomb, or something else seems unclear. I'm guessing with a ~5.1 earthquake, they have the H-bomb.

Nations with a lot to lose seem to think it was the real deal. The US seems to be saying we're unsure, while at the same time Kerry tweets finger wags to NorKo.

Edit: corrected 5.4 to 5.1.

HankB · « **Reply #1 on:** January 06, 2016, 05:00:02 PM »

One of the "experts" on Fox said estimates are that Lil' Kim's explosion was in the 6-7 kT range, which if true isn't consistent with a conventional H-bomb. (Doubt he was testing a neutron bomb.)

Ben · « **Reply #2 on:** January 06, 2016, 05:26:35 PM »

Quote from: HankB on January 06, 2016, 05:00:02 PM

One of the "experts" on Fox said estimates are that Lil' Kim's explosion was in the 6-7 kT range, which if true isn't consistent with a conventional H-bomb. (Doubt he was testing a neutron bomb.)

A quick google indicates that's half of what the atomic bombs dropped on Japan generated. If accurate, I wonder what they detonated? Could they be testing something "portable"? Paging Birdman.

Andiron · « **Reply #3 on:** January 06, 2016, 05:28:38 PM »

Country is starving and that sawed off bastard wants a WMD. Great use of your resources there, short round.

Scout26 · « **Reply #4 on:** January 06, 2016, 05:40:59 PM »

What I read said that 5.1 was what previous tests have generated, which were conventional atomic bombs. If this was an H-Bomb it was either a mini or a fizzle.

Brad Johnson · « **Reply #5 on:** January 06, 2016, 05:43:21 PM »

Quote from: HankB on January 06, 2016, 05:00:02 PM

One of the "experts" on Fox said estimates are that Lil' Kim's explosion was in the 6-7 kT range, which if true isn't consistent with a conventional H-bomb. (Doubt he was testing a neutron bomb.)

That would be consistent with a fizzle. Fission initiator function but the rest went all squishy.

Brad

brimic · « **Reply #6 on:** January 06, 2016, 05:56:53 PM »

Quote from: Andiron on January 06, 2016, 05:28:38 PM

Country is starving and that sawed off bastard wants a WMD. Great use of your resources there, short round.

To paraphrase that- Obama is shedding fake tears over 'gun violence' while Iran and North Korea are moving towards nukes.

Scout26 · « **Reply #7 on:** January 06, 2016, 06:04:38 PM »

Hell, where is G98 when we need him...

Fly320s · « **Reply #8 on:** January 06, 2016, 06:06:22 PM »

I think the Norks popped a regular atomic bomb and told Lil Kim it was a H bomb so they don't get killed in interesting ways.

Ben · « **Reply #9 on:** January 06, 2016, 06:08:23 PM »

Quote from: scout26 on January 06, 2016, 06:04:38 PM

Hell, where is G98 when we need him...

Though he's probably on the "till death do us part" plan regarding what he knows. :)

RocketMan · « **Reply #10 on:** January 06, 2016, 06:13:04 PM »

Read earlier that it might have been a conventional 'A' bomb with some tritium added to the core for a boost. Not an 'H' bomb.

MikeB · « **Reply #11 on:** January 06, 2016, 06:38:08 PM »

Quote from: RocketMan on January 06, 2016, 06:13:04 PM

Read earlier that it might have been a conventional 'A' bomb with some tritium added to the core for a boost. Not an 'H' bomb.

So a possible translation error?

birdman · « **Reply #12 on:** January 06, 2016, 06:45:10 PM »

Quote from: Brad Johnson on January 06, 2016, 05:43:21 PM

That would be consistent with a fizzle. Fission initiator function but the rest went all squishy.

Brad

Which -isn't- a fizzle.

Quote from: HankB on January 06, 2016, 05:00:02 PM

One of the "experts" on Fox said estimates are that Lil' Kim's explosion was in the 6-7 kT range, which if true isn't consistent with a conventional H-bomb. (Doubt he was testing a neutron bomb.)

Why do you say "neutron bombs" are 5-7 kT, or even 5-7 kT versions of an H-bomb?

Quote from: RocketMan on January 06, 2016, 06:13:04 PM

Read earlier that it might have been a conventional 'A' bomb with some tritium added to the core for a boost. Not an 'H' bomb.

If it was a boosted device, I would hope it was a bit bigger than 5-7.

Gewehr98 · « **Reply #13 on:** January 06, 2016, 07:25:55 PM »

I'm here.

Constant Phoenix is enroute for to sniff the Nork underground fart.

Analysis of effluents will commence shortly afterwards.

Pull up your handy-dandy GE Chart of the Nuclides and play along via daughter products and decay chains.

birdman · « **Reply #14 on:** January 06, 2016, 08:09:55 PM »

Quote from: Gewehr98 on January 06, 2016, 07:25:55 PM

I'm here.

Constant Phoenix is enroute for to sniff the Nork underground fart.

Analysis of effluents will commence shortly afterwards.

Pull up your handy-dandy GE Chart of the Nuclides and play along via daughter products and decay chains.

You and I need to have a chat regarding our backgrounds and commonalities I think :)

dogmush · « **Reply #15 on:** January 06, 2016, 08:40:46 PM »

Quote from: birdman on January 06, 2016, 08:09:55 PM

You and I need to have a chat regarding our backgrounds and commonalities I think :)

Can I go on record now as saying this is a bad idea? For the safety of .................well, everyone.

txgho1911 · « **Reply #16 on:** January 06, 2016, 08:43:49 PM »

Sooooo If this was a fizled Hbomb then the secondary is now a wickedly hot test site and fallout zone from the fisionable materials?

Brad Johnson · « **Reply #17 on:** January 06, 2016, 09:55:49 PM »

Quote from: birdman on January 06, 2016, 06:45:10 PM

Which -isn't- a fizzle.

In multistage devices detonation of the primary with a failure to ignite the secondary is also considered a fizzle.

Fizzle is a generic term generally describing a failure to meet design yield. That failure can occurr for any number of reasons.

Brad

Perd Hapley · « **Reply #18 on:** January 07, 2016, 01:36:01 AM »

Norks and nukes. Nice knowing you, East Asia.

wmenorr67 · « **Reply #19 on:** January 07, 2016, 08:10:52 AM »

Just curious if the short little commie bastard will try and get into bed with ISIS.

birdman · « **Reply #20 on:** January 07, 2016, 08:22:46 AM »

Quote from: Brad Johnson on January 06, 2016, 09:55:49 PM

In multistage devices detonation of the primary with a failure to ignite the secondary is also considered a fizzle.

Fizzle is a generic term generally describing a failure to meet design yield. That failure can occurr for any number of reasons.

Brad

If it was 5-7kT, I'd bet it was a real fizzle, not a Castle Koon type fissile fizzle like you describe. In fact, I actually had to search to find an example of a secondary failure that someone called a fissile. As I never encountered that usage in my experience.

Basically, 5-7kT is an interesting yield as it means it's either a really good weapon, or a really shitty one, but since it's the norks, I'm going to say it's a shitty one. If shitty one, that yield is a true fissile, whether or not it's also secondary failure (if it was intended to be a multistage, then it wouldn't count as a secondary failure, as the primary is the fissile). If it's a good one...well, then it's also not a secondary failure, as the primary should have done better or it was a full yield good small one.
So at that yield there really isn't a way to describe it as a fissile because the secondary, if present, failed.
It was either a regular old fissile, or a really good little test that worked correctly.
Any further comment...well, I can't go there.

Ben · « **Reply #21 on:** January 07, 2016, 09:30:53 AM »

Quote from: birdman on January 07, 2016, 08:22:46 AM

If it was 5-7kT, I'd bet it was a real fizzle, not a Castle Koon type fissile fizzle like you describe. In fact, I actually had to search to find an example of a secondary failure that someone called a fissile. As I never encountered that usage in my experience.

Basically, 5-7kT is an interesting yield as it means it's either a really good weapon, or a really shitty one, but since it's the norks, I'm going to say it's a shitty one. If shitty one, that yield is a true fissile, whether or not it's also secondary failure (if it was intended to be a multistage, then it wouldn't count as a secondary failure, as the primary is the fissile). If it's a good one...well, then it's also not a secondary failure, as the primary should have done better or it was a full yield good small one.
So at that yield there really isn't a way to describe it as a fissile because the secondary, if present, failed.
It was either a regular old fissile, or a really good little test that worked correctly.
Any further comment...well, I can't go there.

So commenting on what you can, question on the "good small one": From what you say of the yield, I infer there is a difficulty or physical barrier to producing a small H bomb. What are the physical parameters that have to be overcome to make a viable small H bomb vs building a "conventional" H bomb?

I would have the same fears as Bill regarding a "portable" H bomb. That seems like a pretty good setup for asymmetrical warfare on the terrorist state side.

Another possibility is that I wonder what the payload capacity of the NorKo SLBM is? Maybe they're miniaturizing to get the most bang for the buck from that platform?

Brad Johnson · « **Reply #22 on:** January 07, 2016, 10:45:03 AM »

From what I understand, desinging and building a workable two stage device makes single stage devices look like Tinkertoy windmills.

Brad

Gewehr98 · « **Reply #23 on:** January 07, 2016, 11:07:17 AM »

Without going into the classified portion, suffice it to say that the forensic analysis of the event will have answers regarding the device's construction and degree of success fairly shortly.

The first public clues that stuff's in motion will be Japanese newspapers. They call us the "Great White Bird", and are always camped out at the approach and departure ends of the Yokota/Misawa/Kadena runway with big honkin' telezooms, vying for the best camera shot of the WC-135 Constant Phoenix.

The Japanese consider the Great White Bird to be their protector against North Korea's nuclear ambitions, and will be actively looking for its arrival and subsequent sorties within minutes of the seismic announcement of the Nork kaboom. Kinda freaked me out, the first few times I witnessed this. I wondered to myself if that's how the pharaohs got the ancient Egyptians to consider them as gods. "Show up large and in charge, and they will bow to you.."

You'll see several things once the IC (Intelligence Community) releases their findings:

1. A demarche' issued by the State Department at the UN General Security Council, citing North Korea's nuclear proliferation, with *some* tasty evidence trickled out to reinforce the claim. "Some" because you never show your whole hand.

2. An administration stooge using the old "remain nameless" alibi will leak something to CNN. Senate staffers are also notorious for this. I was actually able to bust one of the little bastards through sleight of hand, a crowning achievement for me!

3. An official announcement, probably after the leak(s).

4. A paragraph or three on watchdog organizational sites like globalsecurity.org or fas.org

(Can't and won't divulge methods and sources - I'm not even allowed to write a book about my former life until 75 years after I retired - how's that for a non-disclosure agreement on exit?)

KD5NRH · « **Reply #24 on:** January 07, 2016, 11:33:12 AM »

Quote from: Gewehr98 on January 07, 2016, 11:07:17 AM

The first public clues that stuff's in motion will be Japanese newspapers. They call us the "Great White Bird", and are always camped out at the approach and departure ends of the Yokota/Misawa/Kadena runway with big honkin' telezooms, vying for the best camera shot of the WC-135 Constant Phoenix.

Nah, they're just practicing for vacation.

News:

Author Topic: Nuke or Not? (Read 4158 times)