Is China getting fed up with the fat kid?

[Angel Eyes]

They turned away a shipment of North Korean coal:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-northkorea-coal-exclusive-idUSKBN17D0D8

Following repeated missile tests that drew international criticism, China banned all imports of North Korean coal on Feb. 26, cutting off the country's most important export product.

To curb coal traffic between the two countries, China's customs department issued an official order on April 7 telling trading companies to return their North Korean coal cargoes, said three trading sources with direct knowledge of the order.

Furthermore ...

To make up for the shortfall from North Korea, China has ramped up imports from the United States in an unexpected boon for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has declared he wants to revive his country's struggling coal sector.

So . . . winning?

[bedlamite]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4399076/China-deploys-150-000-troops-North-Korea-border.html

[grampster]

^^^^If China were to invade NorK and kill topple Chubby, I think the world would celebrate and it would do much for China's rep.

[Andiron]

^^^^If China were to invade NorK and kill topple Chubby, I think the world would celebrate and it would do much for China's rep.

Better them than us,  and more power to them. 

[French G.]

The real work problem is that once you remove that dynasty you have a literal welfare state. Anyone much older than ten is probably a lifelong dependent ward of the state, intellectually, physically, and emotionally stunted from a lifetime of privation. Neighbors will have to care for that place for decades, hopefully a reunification with massive Chinese and Japanese aid.

[Perd Hapley]

The real work problem is that once you remove that dynasty you have a literal welfare state. Anyone much older than ten is probably a lifelong dependent ward of the state, intellectually, physically, and emotionally stunted from a lifetime of privation. Neighbors will have to care for that place for decades, hopefully a reunification with massive Chinese and Japanese aid.

So the problems of German re-unification, times 1,000?

[dogmush]

^^^^If China were to invade NorK and kill topple Chubby, I think the world would celebrate and it would do much for China's rep.

China should 100% do that.  It's a great idea.  Dear Chinese Intelligence Service:  You should totally topple North Korea.  We'd back you up.  The issues with "Regime Change" are overstated in the media, and not that big a deal really.  Trust us.   

[K Frame]

Well, to hear the people providing comments on WTOP (news radio in DC metro) stories on North Korea...

Everything is a vicious, evil plot being machinated by Donald Trump because he wants to start World War III.

[lupinus]

The issues post topple assume that the Chinese would be as, how shall we say, nice about it as us? And put such an emphasis on half asses democracy.

I mean eventually you have to find someone to work in sweat shops for cheaper than five and six year olds. Rice and jobs for all! Free education for the kiddies! Why overcomplicate things comrades?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[AJ Dual]

I'm guessing that China's troops on the border are to prevent any instability in Nork spilling over the border. I doubt they want to mess with regime change there, unless they're privy to internal problems the Norks are having that are so bad, invading is the better option. And if that were the case I think China would have far more than just 150k troops stationed there.

I'm certain, as are the rest of you, that China has long passed the point where Nork is more trouble than it's worth to them.

However, China does not like the idea of a reunified Korea, that's presumably American-aligned, right up to their border.

On the other hand, China probably DOES like the idea of Korean reunification sapping a decade or more out of S. Korea's economic growth, much like how German reunification blunted W. Germany's and then Germany's overall growth for a decade too.

[HankB]

The Norks are nuts.

Heard a talking head the other day saying that when he took power, the current Kim (or maybe Daddy Kim?) showed his flunkies a video of the execution of Nicolae Ceaușescu and others in Romania and told them that if the Nork government fell, they were all dead the same way. So there's little incentive for them to be reasonable. If China were to invade from the north, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Norks began shelling Seoul.

[Scout26]

I'm guessing that China's troops on the border are to prevent any instability in Nork spilling over the border. I doubt they want to mess with regime change there, unless they're privy to internal problems the Norks are having that are so bad, invading is the better option. And if that were the case I think China would have far more than just 150k troops stationed there.

I'm certain, as are the rest of you, that China has long passed the point where Nork is more trouble than it's worth to them.

However, China does not like the idea of a reunified Korea, that's presumably American-aligned, right up to their border.

On the other hand, China probably DOES like the idea of Korean reunification sapping a decade or more out of S. Korea's economic growth, much like how German reunification blunted W. Germany's and then Germany's overall growth for a decade too.

This.   China wants a buffer.  And the South has given up on the idea of re-unification as watching Germany lose a decade+ of economic growth after the Wall fell.

So no one wants to start a war/invade, but the everyone wants the Fat Kid to sit down and shut the hell up.

[wmenorr67]

I'm guessing that China's troops on the border are to prevent any instability in Nork spilling over the border. I doubt they want to mess with regime change there, unless they're privy to internal problems the Norks are having that are so bad, invading is the better option. And if that were the case I think China would have far more than just 150k troops stationed there.

I'm certain, as are the rest of you, that China has long passed the point where Nork is more trouble than it's worth to them.

However, China does not like the idea of a reunified Korea, that's presumably American-aligned, right up to their border.

On the other hand, China probably DOES like the idea of Korean reunification sapping a decade or more out of S. Korea's economic growth, much like how German reunification blunted W. Germany's and then Germany's overall growth for a decade too.

Maybe we could get China to agree to let Korea re-unify if we let them have Taiwan.

[bedlamite]

Looks like Russia wants in on the action:

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2017/04/11/Japans-jets-deployed-in-response-to-Russian-bombers/5381491961239/

Edit: Wrong link fixed.

[TechMan]

Looks like Russia wants in on the action:

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/01/25/norad-responds-after-russian-bombers-zoom-around-japan.html

That was from January 25th.

[AJ Dual]

This.   China wants a buffer.  And the South has given up on the idea of re-unification as watching Germany lose a decade+ of economic growth after the Wall fell.

So no one wants to start a war/invade, but the everyone wants the Fat Kid to sit down and shut the hell up.

I don't know that the South has a choice in the matter. The Nork government falls, they scream "help us!" open their borders. And for the sake of this argument, say that China sits on their hands for various reasons more important to them than keeping Nork as a buffer state, so the South and U.S. move in to secure "critical military assets" and humanitarian aid...

The South effectively has reunified with the North. (shrug)

It's lose/lose, if the South insists Nork stay an independent nation, but with normalized relations and eventually a normal border, Nork floods the south with economic refugees which will cost the South about as much as reunification does, without the benefits of the territory, or any control or say-so as to what goes on up there.

So unless China gobbles up a fallen Nork, or there's some kind of multi-lateral U.S. China, ROK, and U.N. "special administrative region"-thingy that leaves the Nork's in limbo for decades... I'm not sure the South can keep a failed and now open Nork at arms length.

[K Frame]

China and North Korea imagined as a scene from office space...

The Maos: Just what you do here, Kim Jong-un?

Kim: I take the dissidents to the camps!

The Maos: That's all you do? Can't the military do that?

Kim: I have dissident killing skills! What the hell wong with you people?

[Fly320s]

Any chance that China wants to do to NK as Russia did to Ukraine?  Take them over to exploit their natural resources?

[Perd Hapley]

Any chance that China wants to do to NK as Russia did to Ukraine?  Take them over to exploit their natural resources?

China has enough crazy for the foreseeable future. It does not need to import.

[RevDisk]

The real work problem is that once you remove that dynasty you have a literal welfare state. Anyone much older than ten is probably a lifelong dependent ward of the state, intellectually, physically, and emotionally stunted from a lifetime of privation. Neighbors will have to care for that place for decades, hopefully a reunification with massive Chinese and Japanese aid.

For civilized countries, yeah. But it's China. They don't care about that. Foxconn will open some factories, PLA will run the country, people will be treated poorly but won't starve.

But I'm assuming they just want to send a message to NK that their support is not unconditional.

[Angel Eyes]

Looks like Russia wants in on the action:

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2017/04/11/Japans-jets-deployed-in-response-to-Russian-bombers/5381491961239/

Russia then sent two Ilyushin Il-38 fighters to an area near the coast of Hokkaido

 

The Il-38 is a maritime patrol aircraft, roughly comparable to the P-3 Orion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilyushin_Il-38

... and the decline of journalism continues apace.

[Jim147]

But they had the shoulder thing that goes up.

[KD5NRH]

Take over NK, export the people to Mexico in retaliation for sending us all their unwanteds, (heck, they'll get here eventually anyway) and then just expand the DMZ to the Chinese border.

[Angel Eyes]

[Scout26]

I don't know that the South has a choice in the matter. The Nork government falls, they scream "help us!" open their borders. And for the sake of this argument, say that China sits on their hands for various reasons more important to them than keeping Nork as a buffer state, so the South and U.S. move in to secure "critical military assets" and humanitarian aid...

The South effectively has reunified with the North. (shrug)

It's lose/lose, if the South insists Nork stay an independent nation, but with normalized relations and eventually a normal border, Nork floods the south with economic refugees which will cost the South about as much as reunification does, without the benefits of the territory, or any control or say-so as to what goes on up there.

So unless China gobbles up a fallen Nork, or there's some kind of multi-lateral U.S. China, ROK, and U.N. "special administrative region"-thingy that leaves the Nork's in limbo for decades... I'm not sure the South can keep a failed and now open Nork at arms length.

You bolded the least important part of my post.   China wants a buffer.  They don't want US and ROK troops on the Yalu like they now see with NATO in the Balkans, Baltic and Poland. 

Rev is right.  Should the North go all Mad Max and the Kim dynasty fall, the Chicoms would swoop in and let the PLA run the place pretty much like the Kim's have.  Even if they have to pay lip service to the memory Dear Leader, et al. to keep the people pacified.   Think "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss."  They definitely don't want the ROK's to expand to the Yalu.