How our civilization can fall

[Loucks]

I'm of the opinion that Mr. Card should stick with his strengths and keep churning out fantasy/soft sci-fi aimed at the young adult crowd. I enjoyed Ender's Game when I was 9, but none of his other stuff (Caveat: I may have missed something. Maybe.) was worthwhile.

Card is reductionist to the extreme. He fails to understand the geopolitical situation beyond the Sunday morning supplement level and he lacks even a basic understanding of semantics. As a propagandist, he is mediocre; as a scholar, abysmal.

Loucks

[Preacherman]

Loucks, not all of us share your opinion of Mr. Card . . .

[Loucks]

Of course you don't, Preacherman. This would be a pretty boring place if everyone was in continual agreement, no?

[Matthew Carberry]

Of course you don't, Preacherman. This would be a pretty boring place if everyone was in continual agreement, no?

That's a stupid comment.  This place would be much more exciting if everyone agreed with me. 

{The Armed Polite -carebear- Society, that's fun on wheels right there}

[tokugawa]

What bugs me is how in debt we are personally and nationally. It is damn difficult to deal with hard economic times when you have no savings at all.

[richyoung]

1.) I just explained that we dont need a single drop of Middle East oil. That we can synthetically produce enough for all our needs from plastics to transportation to energy.

You might want to learn about a concept called "energy reurn on energy invested".  Once this concept is grasped, the "alternative" situation looks much less rosy.  Take ethanol - to radically ramp up production is going to require planting in more marginal fields - this in turn requires more herbicides, pesticides, fertilizers and tractor fuel - ALL of which are made out of...petroleum.  Ethanol's EROEI is perilously close to 1 to 1.  By contrast, pumping out and refining crude oil is much more efficient.

2.)There are only a few major markets of interest:
China
India
Europe
Japan

and many minor markets
Brazil
Venezuela
South Africa
Eastern Europe
Turkey
Israel
Russia
Oriental Pacfic Rim
Australia

Out of this entire list, there is only one market listed that I would be concerned that the Barbarians will over run, Western Europe. Really think about the rest of the list. None of them are so indoctrinated with pacifism as to allow the kind of behavior Card suggests. That kind of rampage would not be allowed in thier regions of influence, shipping lanes, economic zones, etc. Nobody wants to go over to the MidEast and fight. But none will ALLOW the foolishness in thier backyard either.

3.) We are not the only superpower anymore with a vested interest in containing this destruction. Besides the passive containment explained above in point 2. China and India will grow to be a partner and we will mutually support each other in containing these retards. Especially since this problem will be in thier backyard.

Conclusion: The Middle East, North and middle Africa may go to hell in a hand basket (not much different from now); but it will be contained passively by all the interested parties, and actively by the emerging powers with mutual support by the US. Why containment? Because you cannot convert a person to sanity (you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink). Why is containment acceptable? Because we dont really need in the long term, a single drop of thier oil (and I have the numbers to prove it, its funny how you never asked to see it just assumed I'm wrong)



Drew

The above displays a shocking LACK of what a handful of Silkworm or Sunburn class ASMs could do in a few strategic locations.  Add that to a few major pipeline sabotages, adn the spigot is turned off...

[drewtam]

You might want to learn what CTL and GTL  and Fischer Tropsche is before you start spouting off about ethanol.
I never mentioned anything like ethanol. I agree, ethanol is not a viable fuel. Beyond just the ROI, just look at the market price (adding back in the subsidies).

What I was talking about was CTL and GTL, both mature technologies that can provide fuel from the US and friendly nations for several years (50-90). Technology that has been used twice in history to provide all the transportation fuel needed to engage in world war and economic survival while embargoed. These technologies provide excellent gasolines and diesels. The next stage future would be to power this system by nuclear energy. Which would simplify the chemical process. Think of it as a hyrdogen system, but the hydrogen is transported on the carbon chains in a compact liquid form. The carbon can come from any number of sources, and the hydrogen is obvious as well. Once you have the hydrogen, it is an exothermic reaction. That is why pure H2 has a higher energy per kg value than gasoline. Gasoline gives up some energy for compactness and density. At current electricity prices, gasoline could be synthetically produced for around $3.50/gal, maybe less. Depending on how valuable the natural gas (methane), LPG, and diesels byproducts are.

Finally, the thing about Silkworm or Sunburn class ASMs is that they are state level warfare weapons. That is a type of enemy we can very effectively deal with. Furthermore, the point was that the sane nations nearby will work to protect thier own shipping lanes.

I think people are misinterpreting my argument. I fully agree that we must prosecute this war against those who plot to do us harm. But, I do not agree that its because we need thier oil and stable infrastructure. Card argues that the failure of stability and oil from the middle east will cause the rest of the world to fall apart. I am arguing that we don't need thier oil that bad (given a few years to react), and that thier chaos would have to spread beyond the ME to have significant impact on us. Consider the chaos of the vast majority of Africa, and the chaos of Russia. These regions contain probably 70% of the worlds resources, untapped. The difference is, is that the ME is trying to export that chaos to the US and Europe and the rest of the world. To repeat myself, thats why we must prosecute this war much more vigorously, instead of the half hearted mess of a divided nation.

Drew