I'd be very surprised if this turned out to be your average murder. Yeah, it's true that lots of people are murdered in Washington, and yeah, it's also true that most murders are committed by someone close to the victim.
But most murder victims aren't heavily involved in exposing Russian intelligence agencies. Most murder victims aren't murdered within days of making a credible and believable accusation against Vladimir Putin. This murder victim is so unique that the usual rules and statistics simply don't apply here.
Here are some statistical questions that do apply:
- How often do Vladimir Putin's critics and political opponents wind up murdered?
- When American intelligence experts involved in exposing a major Russian intelligence operation wind up murdered, how often does the murder turn out to be a random coincidence?
- What are the odds of an upper-class, elderly, white male being murdered on his front yard of his home in the suburbs? (Note that the vast majority of DC's violent crime is committed by impoverished, young, inner city minorities...)