Effect of Covid on the Crude Death Rate

[cordex]

I went to those links, read enough to see that those numbers contain estimates, predictions, and data where some of the death certificates listed multiple causes including Covid and Covid was selected as the major cause. At any other time where death certificates listed multiple causes, it could have been the flu that was listed as the major cause. The point being, these viruses will kill people with underlying conditions and have nearly no deaths where the virus is the only culprit.

You are shifting the goal posts even faster than charby does.

You started this thread pointing to lack of widely publicized changes in the the Crude Death Rate (not COVID-assigned deaths) as the PROOF that COVID isn't serious.  I just provided you apples-to-apples comparison of effective CDR from your preferred source showing a not-insignificant change in CDR year-over-year to account for seasonality.  I didn't once refer to COVID assigned deaths from that source - just raw, crude death rates.

So let's try this again.

To know if the Covid has any meaningful effect on the population, one must look at the Crude Death Rate. Has the Covid caused an uptick in that?

Yes.  Asked and answered.  COVID appears to have caused about a 15% uptick in CDR for the first 32 weeks of the year compared to the average of like periods in previous years and something like a 40% uptick in April, again compared to the average of previous Aprils.  The impact on CDR will probably go down a bit as we progress through the year, but the effect exists and is significant.

I contend your foundational assumption was factually wrong.

As for the political aspects of the Covid debacle, look here:
 https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/aug/19/obama-assail-trumps-character-competence-dnc-speec/

Oh, people definitely play politics with COVID and willfully ignore facts to justify their preconceived notions.  You've been doing it this whole thread.

[Perd Hapley]

I'm glad that, if we had to have a plague, it arrived at a time when Americans' trust in our institutions is at an all-time high. At a time when we could trust Big Medicine to science impartially, instead of changing basic facts of human biology for political reasons. At a time when news organizations are clearly committed to ethics, integrity, and impartiality. At a time when no one could possibly have reason to be skeptical of official sources. At a time when both major political parties are clearly on the side of the citizenry. At least we can be thankful for that much.

[Pb]

I'm glad that, if we had to have a plague, it arrived at a time when Americans' trust in our institutions is at an all-time high. At a time when we could trust Big Medicine to science impartially, instead of changing basic facts of human biology for political reasons. At a time when news organizations are clearly committed to ethics, integrity, and impartiality. At a time when no one could possibly have reason to be skeptical of official sources. At a time when both major political parties are clearly on the side of the citizenry. At least we can be thankful for that much.

No one can say it better than that!   

[MechAg94]

I'm glad that, if we had to have a plague, it arrived at a time when Americans' trust in our institutions is at an all-time high. At a time when we could trust Big Medicine to science impartially, instead of changing basic facts of human biology for political reasons. At a time when news organizations are clearly committed to ethics, integrity, and impartiality. At a time when no one could possibly have reason to be skeptical of official sources. At a time when both major political parties are clearly on the side of the citizenry. At least we can be thankful for that much.

Well said.   

[TommyGunn]

I'm glad that, if we had to have a plague, it arrived at a time when Americans' trust in our institutions is at an all-time high. At a time when we could trust Big Medicine to science impartially, instead of changing basic facts of human biology for political reasons. At a time when news organizations are clearly committed to ethics, integrity, and impartiality. At a time when no one could possibly have reason to be skeptical of official sources. At a time when both major political parties are clearly on the side of the citizenry. At least we can be thankful for that much.

Are you being sarcastic? ? ?         

[Ron]

What is the official death rate as percentage of infection with Covid 19?

[ConstitutionCowboy]

I'm glad that, if we had to have a plague, it arrived at a time when Americans' trust in our institutions is at an all-time high. At a time when we could trust Big Medicine to science impartially, instead of changing basic facts of human biology for political reasons. At a time when news organizations are clearly committed to ethics, integrity, and impartiality. At a time when no one could possibly have reason to be skeptical of official sources. At a time when both major political parties are clearly on the side of the citizenry. At least we can be thankful for that much.

With that, I rest my case.

Woody

[ConstitutionCowboy]

What is the official death rate as percentage of infection with Covid 19?

Using CDC data as of yesterday, I calculate 3%.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/us-cases-deaths.html

This CDC data makes no mention of whether or not there were underlying complications/conditions involved in the deaths.

Woody

[Pb]

Using CDC data as of yesterday, I calculate 3%.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/us-cases-deaths.html

This CDC data makes no mention of whether or not there were underlying complications/conditions involved in the deaths.

Woody

Wow, I thought it was a lot lower than that?   

[TommyGunn]

Wow, I thought it was a lot lower than that?   

About .3%  if you use normal  math and account for nonsymptomatic cases and lagging deaths.  Whatever % if you use the Constitution Cowboy math system. 

[dogmush]

Wow, I thought it was a lot lower than that?   

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/united-states

3.1%


Don't worry, a lot of folks still think it's lower than that.

[MechAg94]

I all depends on the total number of infections.  Since a certain percentage of people have little or no symptoms, that number could be higher.

[ConstitutionCowboy]

About .3%  if you use normal  math and account for nonsymptomatic cases and lagging deaths.  Whatever % if you use the Constitution Cowboy math system. 

That's what you get if you use government (CDC) data. John Hopkins data as well. (I wonder how John Hopkins gathers their data?)

Woody

[dogmush]

That's what you get if you use government (CDC) data. John Hopkins data as well. (I wonder how John Hopkins gathers their data?)

Woody

From the Johns Hopkins US Map FAQ:

What are the sources of data informing the dashboard?
The data sources include the Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University; the Red Cross; the Census American Community Survey; and the Bureau of Labor and Statistics.

World Map FAQ:

What are the sources of data informing the dashboard?
The data sources include the World Health Organization, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China, 1point3acres, Worldometers.info, BNO, state and national government health departments, local media reports, and the DXY, one of the world’s largest online communities for physicians, health care professionals, pharmacies and facilities.

[freakazoid]

With things like this, https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report can we even trust the numbers when they come out?

[Ron]

With things like this, https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report can we even trust the numbers when they come out?

No, the numbers out of Illinois are lies, that much I know.

[cordex]

I don’t doubt there are misattributions when it comes to cause of death, but as Cowboy was so helpful to point out, there have been a lot more dead people than we would expect to have over the past few months. Something caused those deaths.

[Ron]

The numbers are all reported numbers.

We know that multiple jurisdictions across the country are reporting all deaths with covid as deaths by covid.

The numbers aren't even actual counts, they get smoothed out using statistical methods.

Garbage in garbage out.

I guess we'll wait and see the total deaths number at the end of the year and see just how much worse this is than a terrible flu year.

3% death rate is absurd. Back in June they were still arguing over whether it was 1/4% or closer to a 1/2%.

There hasn't been an explosion of deaths over the summer, more like an explosion of BS.

[ConstitutionCowboy]

Here are the numbers to mull over:

US Population as of yesterday: 330,000,000 plus, per the US Census clock.

Number of Covid-19 cases as of yesterday per the CDC:  5,551,793.

Percent of people who have or have had the Covid: 1.68%

All deaths involving the Covid as of yesterday per the NCHS: 159,865

Percent of the US population who have died involving the Covid: 0.048% (Less than 1/20 of a percent.)

Percent of those who died with the Covid: 2.9%

I believe, with only 1.68% of the population being infected with the Covid, and only 2.9% of those dying with it(not necessarily because of it!), this is an over-hyped, overheated, politicized, and fear-mongered relatively insignificant occurrence unnecessarily boiled over into a fiasco.

Let us also keep in mind that the mortality rate of everyone is 100.00%. Everyone dies (Except Jesus Christ and I'm not sure about Moses ...)

Woody

EDIT: Math correction.

[dogmush]

To know if it was over-hyped and fear mongered we'd need to know how many people would have gotten the virus and died if we hadn't hyped it and gotten people scared.

So please, provide us a reasonable model of both death rate and infection rate/spread in a modern, interconnected country with easy travel that did not hype this virus.  Please.  Really, because we don't have any models that are decently reliable for that.

Death rates were higher in countries that neared or surpassed their hospital capacity.  Spread was higher in countries that were later to or didn't lock down.

It is reasonable to assume that more people would have died had the US just done nothing.  There were also real economic and peoples life costs to how we handled (and are handling) the COVID outbreak.  I'm actually of the opinion that we didn't handle it very well at all, so in theory we could be in agreement.  I also believe that some of the major talking heads went beyond the pale in exaggerations ignoring evidence that didn't align with their political views.  So we could agree there as well.  But just as many people have ignored evidence to be more fearful than warranted I've seen at least an equal number ignore evidence and first hand accounts so they could continue to believe that COVID-19 is a moderate severe flu, which it's clearly not.

You have, several time in this thread, made a sweeping assertion with, at best, no evidence to support it, and sometime in the face of the evidence provided.  If you'll excuse my bluntness that's a remarkable ignorant argument from someone that normally posts cogent, well thought out posts.

No one will ever be able to prove the negative (what would have happened in the US if nothing was done), and it's an observable fact that the virus and our response to it has been politicized by our chattering class, but to go from there to "insignificant event" without some kind of decent evidence is a bridge to far.

[zahc]

...with only 1.68% of the population being infected with the Covid, and only 2.9% of those dying with it(not necessarily because of it!), ...

That's confirmed cases, right?

It's generally accepted that only a small fraction of infected people got tested. So the actual number of cases is higher than the confirmed cases, the only question is how much higher. It seems fairly uncontroversial to assume actual cases are between 5 and 20 times higher than confirmed; let's use 10X. In that case 16.8% of the population has been infected with COVID. I'm not saying that's a bad thing. It means COVID death rate is much lower at 0.29% which sounds about right to me, and it also means herd immunity is going to happen. The US is large and it's going to take a long time to work through the flyover states, but if on the grand average 17% of the population already got it, it means in the population centers it's probably already run its course.

I suspect I got it a few weeks ago, but no test. My wife and one of my kids got it recently, tests and all, probably got it from me. Why didn't the other kids get it? They probably already did; they were sick multiple times in January-Feb.

I'm sorry that a lot of people are dying from it but there's still nothing we can really do to stop viruses except let them run their course, and vaccines, and they're working on that, and I don't think coronavirus vaccines are easy. I still think the best thing we could/should have done is exactly what we always do...wash your hands, stay at home if you are sick, and throw in some mask mandates and targeted shutdowns (nightclubs etc.) wherever hospital capacity is at risk.

[BlueStarLizzard]

Are you being sarcastic? ? ?         

Sad truth was that was quoted and reposted on FB and I really did have to ask if it was sarcasm, since I didn't know origins at the time.   

[dogmush]

I'm sorry that a lot of people are dying from it but there's still nothing we can really do to stop viruses except let them run their course, and vaccines, and they're working on that, and I don't think coronavirus vaccines are easy. I still think the best thing we could/should have done is exactly what we always do...wash your hands, stay at home if you are sick, and throw in some mask mandates and targeted shutdowns (nightclubs etc.) wherever hospital capacity is at risk.

I would probably throw in some actual quarantine of folks confirmed positive but not needing hospitalization.  Public health officials could monitor (and support with MRE's or heater meals if needed) in home quarantine of folks that are positive (because as anyone who's coworkers have gotten them sick people don't, in fact, stay home when they are sick).  And I actually agree with mask mandates because while they aren't super effective, they do work a little, and are cheap and easy.  Some of that stimulus boondoggle could have been paid sick leave subsidies to incentivize staying home and help disincentivize companies doing the "punish youfor using sick leave thing". But otherwise, yeah.

[MechAg94]

I would probably throw in some actual quarantine of folks confirmed positive but not needing hospitalization.  Public health officials could monitor (and support with MRE's heater meals if needed) in home quarantine of folks that are positive (because as anyone who's coworkers have gotten them sick people don't, in fact, stay home when they are sick).  And I actually agree with mask mandates because while they aren't supper effective, they do work a little, and are cheap and easy.  Some of that stimulus boondoggle could have been paid sick leave subsidies to incentivize staying home and help disincentivize companies doing the "punish youfor using sick leave thing". But otherwise, yeah.

I think assisting with paid sick leave would have been much better than shutting down businesses.  Considering they are not shutting down everything, I think they could have just put in distancing rules for restaurants and bars instead of closing them.  My barber just restricted how many could be in the waiting area and asked people to use sanitizer or wash their hands when they entered.  She was wearing a mask.

[cordex]

Death rates were higher in countries that neared or surpassed their hospital capacity.  Spread was higher in countries that were later to or didn't lock down.

It is reasonable to assume that more people would have died had the US just done nothing. 

The lockdowns to prevent overcrowding of hospitals was reasonable. As you note, when the hospitals were overwhelmed things got bad fast.

Lockdowns to prevent spread in general are an expensive way to fail at the impossible.