Effect of Covid on the Crude Death Rate

[ConstitutionCowboy]

I see none.

To know if the Covid has any meaningful effect on the population, one must look at the Crude Death Rate. Has the Covid caused an uptick in that? If there was any sort of upward trend, it would be blasted on the airwaves, the hype would be in overdrive, and we'd all likely be placed in isolation camps! As for the Crude Death Rate, I can find no data that shows an increase caused by the Covid.

I can only conclude that the Covid panic is nothing more than a debacle! Sure, some people will meet their demise with or activated by the Covid as will just about anyone with a confounding health risk or condition. These people will likely die of any sort of flu or other debilitating infection. But, I see no increase in the rate of death due to the Covid. As I stated earlier, if there was an increase, that is all you would hear about on the news - especially in this(or any) election period.

Look to whomever will profit from this debacle - either financially or politically. It is obviously a boon to the pharmaceutical industry and is without a doubt a tool being used by politicians to cast blame in the hopes it will topple their political enemies and open the doors to a rise in their power. My advice? Use your common sense, follow the means being employed and see the end being driven toward, and don't become an unsuspecting victim of the hype, the panic, and the deviance of those driving this fallacy.

Woody

[TommyGunn]

Uh hum..... I take it you've completed all the studies,  correlated all the facts,  balanced the binomials and crunched all the numbers and reached the lock-cinch conclusion of fact ..... ? ?

 

[dogmush]

And used your crystal ball to see what the death rate would have been had Most of the world not shut down for 4 months.....

[ConstitutionCowboy]

Uh hum..... I take it you've completed all the studies,  correlated all the facts,  balanced the binomials and crunched all the numbers and reached the lock-cinch conclusion of fact ..... ? ?

 

Sometimes what you don't see is is the razor's edge. An increase of the Crude Death Rate isn't even being forecast by the CDC.

Woody

[ConstitutionCowboy]

And used your crystal ball to see what the death rate would have been had Most of the world not shut down for 4 months.....

No need. If there would have been only one day showing an increase in the Crude Death Rate, it would have been used to show how "devastating" this disease is. The Crude Death Rate has been ignored. A steady Crude Death Rate won't/doesn't help promote the panic and hype.

Woody

[Nick1911]

Sure, some people will meet their demise with or activated by the Covid as will just about anyone with a confounding health risk or condition. These people will likely die of any sort of flu or other debilitating infection.

That's an interesting assertion, and one that has been looked into, for instance here.

Among patients dying of COVID-19, there appears to be a considerable burden in terms of years of life lost, commensurate with diseases such as coronary heart disease or pneumonia. While media coverage of the pandemic has focused heavily on COVID-19 affecting people with ‘underlying health conditions’, adjustment for number and type of LTCs only modestly reduces the estimated YLL due to COVID-19 compared to estimates based only on age and sex. Public health agencies and governments should report on YLL, ideally adjusting for the presence of underlying LTCs, to allow the public and policy-makers to better understand the burden of this disease.

Sure, it's an ongoing topic that will be studied for years to come, but the preliminary published results of statisticians studying the topic indicate your assertion is probably not accurate.

[DittoHead]

Isn't this basically what you're talking about?

There were approximately 781,000 total deaths in the United States from March 1 to May 30, 2020, representing 122,300 (95% prediction interval, 116,800-127,000) more deaths than would typically be expected at that time of year.

[ConstitutionCowboy]

I'm stating that there hasn't been a report showing that more people are dying as a result of the Covid. Years of Life Lost is not the same.

I'm not sure what the "LTCs" refers to. Please clarify.

Since a negative cannot be proven, only positive data showing an increase in the Crude Death Rate is of use to show I am in error with my assertion, and the increase must be directly related to Covid-19 with no other cause or causes being significant.

Woody

[dogmush]

Since a negative cannot be proven, only positive data showing an increase in the Crude Death Rate is of use to show I am in error with my assertion, and the increase must be directly related to Covid-19 with no other cause or causes being significant.

Woody

Sorry Woody, but this is patently untrue.

You are asserting that measure put in place to limit the death toll of a contagious disease were a debacle because....there wasn't a large death toll.  That doesn't prove they are effective, but it definitely doesn't prove a debacle.

In honesty we would expect to see a decrease in the Crude Death Rate as many death inducing activities were curtailed due to the varying levels of "lockdown".

[DittoHead]

I'm stating that there hasn't been a report showing that more people are dying as a result of the Covid.

How about this? Data from the CDC, deaths from all causes is the dark blue bars and you can see when Covid hit pretty clearly.

[ConstitutionCowboy]

How about this? Data from the CDC, deaths from all causes is the dark blue bars and you can see when Covid hit pretty clearly.

Nice graph, but where does it show that the Covid was the culprit? If the graph doesn't break down the causes of death, the increases could be the result of any or many things. What is to say this graph accurately shows unreported deaths? Why is this graph based on estimates instead of actual counts? Exactly what is the "Threshold for Excess Deaths? Why does the current threshold drop below the levels shown for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019?

I read somewhere where not all deaths are reported to the CDC. Since the CDC is mostly concerned with disease, it seems to me there ought to be a better source for that information.

Sorry, but I don't buy that data from the CDC as being definitive.

I'm not saying the Covid-19 is a fallacy; I'm sure people have dealt with it and some have died with it being a contributing factor. I believe it is no more serious than the regular flu and is simply hyped up for political and financial reasons. YMMV.

Woody

[dogmush]

I believe it is no more serious than the regular flu and is simply hyped up for political and financial reasons. YMMV.

Woody

Well then you are incorrect.  You've also clearly stated that you won't accept any data accept your prepicked data that doesn't show what you think it does.  So.....good day, sir I guess?

[DittoHead]

Nice graph, but where does it show that the Covid was the culprit? If the graph doesn't break down the causes of death, the increases could be the result of any or many things.

This is true. You're the one who is supposedly looking for the Crude Death Rates to show (or not show) something. I found the best graph I could for that after a few minutes of looking. If you have an alternative explanation for that spike that appears the same time as COVID, you're welcome to it.

What is to say this graph accurately shows unreported deaths? Why is this graph based on estimates instead of actual counts? Exactly what is the "Threshold for Excess Deaths? Why does the current threshold drop below the levels shown for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019?

You can ignore all of that. I'm just talking about the blue bars - those are plain numbers of reported deaths with no adjustment, estimates, or statistical interpretation required

I read somewhere where not all deaths are reported to the CDC. Since the CDC is mostly concerned with disease, it seems to me there ought to be a better source for that information.
Sorry, but I don't buy that data from the CDC as being definitive.

CDC data is not perfect, but besides the fact that it's probably the best we have available, your original question here is about a disease so that would be a logical source. I'm skeptical that you've looked very hard for these effects that you're not seeing and you keep moving the goalposts. You started out saying you couldn't find any data that shows an increase caused by the Covid, now you're just going to say you don't believe any that is found. So I'm with dogmush. Good day.

[Nick1911]

I'm stating that there hasn't been a report showing that more people are dying as a result of the Covid. Years of Life Lost is not the same.

I'm not sure what the "LTCs" refers to. Please clarify.

Since a negative cannot be proven, only positive data showing an increase in the Crude Death Rate is of use to show I am in error with my assertion, and the increase must be directly related to Covid-19 with no other cause or causes being significant.

Woody

It's clear that you haven't read even the first paragraph of the linked research. It's also clear that you have a preconceived notion that you are attempting to support, and are unwilling to consider consider data which conflicts with that.  The information is out there if you're willing to look into it.

As dogmush says.... Good day, Sir.

[ConstitutionCowboy]

Sorry, guys, but none of the data you've presented deals with the Crude Death Rate. The Crude Death Rate deals with all manner of death. If and when I find a source, I'll post it here.

I do appreciate your efforts.

Woody

[cordex]

Woody,
If you don’t have the data why are you so confident there has been no impact?
Which crude death rate are you referring to?  Where do they get their data?

[ConstitutionCowboy]

Woody,
If you don’t have the data why are you so confident there has been no impact?
Which crude death rate are you referring to?  Where do they get their data?

A google search will bring it up. It is the rate of death per 1000 in a given year. The US is currently somewhere just above 8 deaths per year per 1000 population. For example, let us say that the US's Crude Death Rate was an even 8 per thousand. If the Covid caused it to jump to 9 per thousand and dropped back off to 8 per thousand after it passes, that would be what I would call a significant impact. That would mean that about 330,000 people would have died over and above what would have been a "normal" year.

My confidence comes from the lack of such data. As I stated earlier, if the Covid caused a significant increase in the Crude Death Rate, significantly above the  normal rate, you'd hear about it. It would be something that those hyping the Covid couldn't resist to show its "devastation." As another example, the Black Plague killed something like half the population of Europe. That was a significant increase of what would have been the usual death rate. The Black Plague is an extreme example, but it demonstrates the impact it had. I see no such data for the Covid.

Woody

[De Selby]

A google search will bring it up. It is the rate of death per 1000 in a given year. The US is currently somewhere just above 8 deaths per year per 1000 population. For example, let us say that the US's Crude Death Rate was an even 8 per thousand. If the Covid caused it to jump to 9 per thousand and dropped back off to 8 per thousand after it passes, that would be what I would call a significant impact. That would mean that about 330,000 people would have died over and above what would have been a "normal" year.

My confidence comes from the lack of such data. As I stated earlier, if the Covid caused a significant increase in the Crude Death Rate, significantly above the  normal rate, you'd hear about it. It would be something that those hyping the Covid couldn't resist to show its "devastation." As another example, the Black Plague killed something like half the population of Europe. That was a significant increase of what would have been the usual death rate. The Black Plague is an extreme example, but it demonstrates the impact it had. I see no such data for the Covid.

Woody

Specifically that data was posted above, and it shows a much higher death rate than average coinciding with COVID.

Here’s some more https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

But comparing recent totals of deaths from all causes can provide a more complete picture of the pandemic’s impact than tracking only deaths of people with confirmed diagnoses. Epidemiologists refer to fatalities in the gap between the observed and normal numbers of deaths as “excess deaths.”

Through Aug. 1, estimated excess deaths were about 37 percent higher than the official coronavirus fatality count. If this pattern holds, it would put the current death toll at more than 225,000 people.

Many epidemiologists believe measuring excess deaths is the best way to assess the impact of the virus in real time.

[cordex]

A google search will bring it up. It is the rate of death per 1000 in a given year. The US is currently somewhere just above 8 deaths per year per 1000 population.

I know what it is, I was asking whose version you are trusting, since you said you don't trust CDC numbers but CDC's numbers are used for many calculations of the crude death rate.

My confidence comes from the lack of such data. As I stated earlier, if the Covid caused a significant increase in the Crude Death Rate, significantly above the  normal rate, you'd hear about it. It would be something that those hyping the Covid couldn't resist to show its "devastation." As another example, the Black Plague killed something like half the population of Europe. That was a significant increase of what would have been the usual death rate. The Black Plague is an extreme example, but it demonstrates the impact it had. I see no such data for the Covid.

I'm pretty sure the crude death rate is an annual measure, so any CDR you see generated before the end of the year would necessarily be an estimate or forcast.  As Dittohead's chart shows, there is a seasonality to deaths, so a monthly CDR would show significant swings month to month.

If someone noted that gun sales are way, way up this year, would you likewise dismiss that because there isn't a final tally for guns sold per 1,000 people in 2020?

[ConstitutionCowboy]

First off, gun sales can be damn near instantaneously determined with data from the FBI NICS. There is no other source that quick. Polling gun dealers would take a while, but that is immaterial to this discussion. Second, does the CDC record each and every death in the US? No, but I found this:

 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/

It is the National Center for Health Statistics. It is part of the CDC but only deals with statistics.  The latest data I found was for 2017 which states there were 2,813,503 deaths in the US. They list the leading causes totaling 1,922,932. (This leaves 890,570 deaths unaccounted for in their data.) It states that the death rate that year is 863.8 per 100,000 (8.638 per 1000).

It has totals for the flu and pneumonia, heart disease, chronic lower respiratory diseases(lung disease), and couple others that could have been complicated by something such as the Covid, etc.

For how many died as a result of the Covid in any of the people with those conditions in this current "season", it will not be known until it gets tallied by the NCHS. It will be interesting to note how those deaths will be recorded - such as will the underlying condition be blamed or will it be blamed on the Covid. In 2017, the total deaths where a virus could have played a direct part - lung disease, flu and pneumonia - was 215,873. This equates to about 66 people per 100,000(.66 per 1000)

If there is a significant increase of that ratio in 2020, then it can be said that the Covid caused a significant increase in the number of deaths. However, if the number of those who die in 2020 of other relevant causes has dropped due to being attributed to the Covid instead, then there won't be a significant increase of the number of deaths and the Covid will not have caused an increase in the Crude Death Rate.

While no one is predicting an increase in the death rate in the US, I still hold to my conclusion that the Covid is not a significant cause for alarm other than for people who would be just as vulnerable for any flu virus making the rounds. I still hold the hype and panic is unfounded(my opinion) and is likely politically and financially motivated(my opinion).

In the end, if the data shows otherwise, I will be surprised.

Woody

[cordex]

First off, gun sales can be damn near instantaneously determined with data from the FBI NICS. There is no other source that quick. Polling gun dealers would take a while, but that is immaterial to this discussion.

Gun sales data from NICS are approximate because they only track sales associated with a background check (which can be skipped in some states with a CCW or private sale) and doesn't indicate the number of weapons purchased per check.  But even at that you can get a pretty good idea of trends compared to previous periods. 

Just like you can with the imperfect CDC data that was already posted in this thread.

It is the National Center for Health Statistics. It is part of the CDC but only deals with statistics.  The latest data I found was for 2017 which states there were 2,813,503 deaths in the US. They list the leading causes totaling 1,922,932. (This leaves 890,570 deaths unaccounted for in their data.) It states that the death rate that year is 863.8 per 100,000 (8.638 per 1000).

So ... the last year for which you have data is 2017 (although data exists for 2018 at 8.678) but you're pointing at the lack of press given to the crude death rate numbers that have not yet been published as evidence for what you already believe?

If there is a significant increase of that ratio in 2020, then it can be said that the Covid caused a significant increase in the number of deaths. However, if the number of those who die in 2020 of other relevant causes has dropped due to being attributed to the Covid instead, then there won't be a significant increase of the number of deaths and the Covid will not have caused an increase in the Crude Death Rate.

There are plenty of numbers that will need to be crunched as data comes in.  It might be determined that the total annual deaths only increased slightly as people who were close to death anyway were killed months earlier.  Or it might be determined that people died many years earlier than they would have without Covid.  Probably a mix, by my guess, but that remains to be seen.

Right now the best numbers we have indicate that there was a brief but very significant spike in deaths temporarily associated with Covid ... but you refuse to even look at that until 2022 when they publish 2020s CDR?

Admittedly, the variation between 2019 and 2020 may be on the order of the difference between 2009 and 2018 (a 0.733 per 1000 shift) but for a year-to-year shift that would still be significant.

Whatever the case, as far as I can tell so far this entire thread is predicated on drawing conclusions from how future statistics may play out.  That seems reversed from the way it should be.

While no one is predicting an increase in the death rate in the US

On what do you base this statement?

, I still hold to my conclusion that the Covid is not a significant cause for alarm other than for people who would be just as vulnerable for any flu virus making the rounds.

I think it has been shown internationally to be more dangerous and more infectious than most annual flus.  Whether that justifies panic and government's responses to date is another issue.

In the end, if the data shows otherwise, I will be surprised.

Maybe you'll end up being correct, but your claim is weak and founded on presumptions based on the lack of data (that based on your own sources you wouldn't expect to see for two to three years), not on data.

[ConstitutionCowboy]

Let me say that if there was any hint with positive evidence that the death toll attributable to the Covid would be significantly higher than what is considered "normal", there would be much doom-saying and tightly clenched sphincters in the media over such a danger, and I'd be wearing a mask.

Woody

[cordex]

Let me say that if there was any hint with positive evidence that the death toll attributable to the Covid would be significantly higher than what is considered "normal", there would be much doom-saying and tightly clenched sphincters in the media over such a danger, and I'd be wearing a mask.

Maybe something from the NCHS? 
It is the National Center for Health Statistics. It is part of the CDC but only deals with statistics.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Excess-Deaths-Associated-with-COVID-19/xkkf-xrst/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

They offer some good tools for visualization.  You might recognize one of the charts from Dittohead's post.  Assuming you believe the numbers (remember, from the same source you were advocating earlier, and the same group who will assemble the CDR you keep going on about) then there is evidence that the death toll this year is much greater than previous years. 

First 32 weeks of 2017: 1,731,205 deaths
First 32 weeks or 2018: 1,773,442 deaths
First 32 weeks of 2019: 1,766,467 deaths
First 32 weeks of 2020: 1,997,059 deaths

Or, if you want a "First 32 week CDR" for each of those years:
2017: 5.230 deaths per 1k
2018: 5.390 deaths per 1k
2019: 5.402 deaths per 1k
2020: 6.164 deaths per 1k

For the four weeks ending in April:
2017: 217,485
2018: 206,436
2019: 224,231
2020: 303,306

[De Selby]

Let me say that if there was any hint with positive evidence that the death toll attributable to the Covid would be significantly higher than what is considered "normal", there would be much doom-saying and tightly clenched sphincters in the media over such a danger, and I'd be wearing a mask.

Woody

Woody, that data showing a significant increase is available and has been post here. Click on the links, there is much doomsaying because there is a higher than average death rate coinciding with COVID.

[ConstitutionCowboy]

Maybe something from the NCHS? 
It is the National Center for Health Statistics. It is part of the CDC but only deals with statistics.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Excess-Deaths-Associated-with-COVID-19/xkkf-xrst/
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

They offer some good tools for visualization.  You might recognize one of the charts from Dittohead's post.  Assuming you believe the numbers (remember, from the same source you were advocating earlier, and the same group who will assemble the CDR you keep going on about) then there is evidence that the death toll this year is much greater than previous years. 

First 32 weeks of 2017: 1,731,205 deaths
First 32 weeks or 2018: 1,773,442 deaths
First 32 weeks of 2019: 1,766,467 deaths
First 32 weeks of 2020: 1,997,059 deaths

Or, if you want a "First 32 week CDR" for each of those years:
2017: 5.230 deaths per 1k
2018: 5.390 deaths per 1k
2019: 5.402 deaths per 1k
2020: 6.164 deaths per 1k

For the four weeks ending in April:
2017: 217,485
2018: 206,436
2019: 224,231
2020: 303,306

I went to those links, read enough to see that those numbers contain estimates, predictions, and data where some of the death certificates listed multiple causes including Covid and Covid was selected as the major cause. At any other time where death certificates listed multiple causes, it could have been the flu that was listed as the major cause. The point being, these viruses will kill people with underlying conditions and have nearly no deaths where the virus is the only culprit.

This may sound callous, but eventually the virus will run out of people with underlying conditions to kill and there will be a drop in the number of deaths until the number of people with underlying conditions climbs back up. Point being, if this virus was as deadly as it is being purported to be, people without underlying conditions would be dropping like fly's. They are not.

So far, no doom-saying and tightly clenched sphincters in the media.

As for the political aspects of the Covid debacle, look here:
 https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/aug/19/obama-assail-trumps-character-competence-dnc-speec/

Woody