What is "expected"?
The 2018 midterm turnout was the highest in something like 50 years, I would expect record turnout on both sides.
I would also note that the midterm predictions were very accurate.
It all hinges on whether there is actually a motivated MAGA minority vote.
Caucasians are pretty solidified into the leftist self loathing, brains addled by critical race theory (cultural Marxism) and Democratic Socialism (economic Marxism) on one side, and the what happened to my old America? Wait, we're America, we're the good guys! Let's change slower! a little less leftist on the other side.
Actual Republicans of the right are far and few in between. Of course I do live in a county that recently flipped from R to D as the Dupage County Republicans were incapable of even conserving their own gravy train. JFK is a PaleoCon compared to most Republicans around here. So I'm jaded.
So, we will see if Trump can peel off more than a single digit of Blacks or if he will pull in more than a third of the "natural conservative" Americans of Mexican heritage.
As far as the Wealthy Rulers who are running and have run the country previously, Trump represents the better option.
He at the minimum gives lip service to some Republican and "conservative" issues.
I don't get the impression he actually hates me or my religion so that's good.
His judges will probably still sell us out but not at the breakneck speed as the leftist crazy train would.
2018 was a tough election. A lot of Republicans retired from office and the Russian collusion gaslighting project still had a head of steam.