Gun purchase numbers

[K Frame]

From Fox News.

Not really surprising to any of us who follow this sort of thing, but it is interesting to note that Pennsylvania's increase really isn't that great compared to other states.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gun-sales-swing-states-presidential-election

[MikeB]

From Fox News.

Not really surprising to any of us who follow this sort of thing, but it is interesting to note that Pennsylvania's increase really isn't that great compared to other states.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gun-sales-swing-states-presidential-election

I’m not sure I trust that necessarily. PA doesn’t use NICS, it uses PICS. The article doesn’t specify that so who knows if they are actually collecting the right data. Probably they just aren’t being specific, but with Media track records who knows.

Also PA has one of the highest rates of gun ownership in the nation so I would expect the raise to in number to not be as dramatic as other states.

[dogmush]

From the article:

Statistics say there is growth in gun sales in swing states, but largely these are folks who already own guns buying even more guns, not that there is a wholesale changing of public opinion after so many innocent people have died in mass shooting after mass shooting year after year," noted Cristina Antelo, CEO of the government and public relations firm Ferox Strategies.

Ms. Antelo hasn't been in a gun store or show in Central FL recently.  I can't get a 4473 done or a gun off the table because every employee is showing someone how to load a magazine, or explaining the difference between pump and auto shotguns.  These are not "gun culture" types.

While waiting on a NICS on a Kimber this week I got to watch an employee explain the difference between DAO (LC9) and striker (G43) to a lesbian couple that appeared to be late 50's-early 60's.  They ended up buying matching G43's and left with their CCW applications in hand and a class date.   While I doubt those two specifically are going to vote for Trump, they were pretty clearly first time gun buyers.  And, anecdotally, that is pretty common this summer.  The gun show I went to was an even more vibrant spread of humanity.

[MechAg94]

That is what I saw at least in part.  Mostly women getting a gun with or without a husband/boyfriend present.  The lesbian couple I saw were from New Jersey and were happy there were far fewer road blocks to buying guns here.  Given how many people were buying AR's from another dealer, I figure gun owners were upgrading what they have as well.

Even if the majority are existing gun owners, that could still be millions of new gun owners.  Even if they don't become pro-gun activists it still represents a change or threshold in their thinking that could certainly affect their vote.  If someone is fearful enough about unrest to go buy a gun for the first time, they might not look favorably on the party that is cheering on the rioters.  I guess we will see in about 5 or 6 weeks.

[Perd Hapley]

Well, @dogmush, homosexuals prefer their gear match that of their partners. But that's none of my business [sips tea].

I believe the NSSF is estimating 4-5 million first time gun buyers this year. That's like a second NRA.

[RocketMan]

That is what I saw at least in part.  Mostly women getting a gun with or without a husband/boyfriend present.  The lesbian couple I saw were from New Jersey and were happy there were far fewer road blocks to buying guns here.  Given how many people were buying AR's from another dealer, I figure gun owners were upgrading what they have as well.

Even if the majority are existing gun owners, that could still be millions of new gun owners.  Even if they don't become pro-gun activists it still represents a change or threshold in their thinking that could certainly affect their vote.  If someone is fearful enough about unrest to go buy a gun for the first time, they might not look favorably on the party that is cheering on the rioters.  I guess we will see in about 5 or 6 weeks.

It could just as easily be that they are Democrats preparing for the onslaught of white supremacist/boogaloo bois/proud boys into their neighborhoods after Trump is re-elected and declares himself dictator. (Yes, sarcasm.)  Point being, we cannot make any assumptions as to the motivations of these first time gun buyers.  We certainly cannot assume most of them will be born again Trump voters.

[MillCreek]

^^^I think RocketMan has a very good point.  My wife and I are in the education and healthcare communities, respectively, and those groups probably tend to have a lower rate of firearm ownership and higher rates of Democratic leanings than other occupational groups. A relatively small number of our friends and work acquaintances know that I own firearms, and I have been surprised to see how many people have reached out to me in recent months for firearms-buying advice.  It is more a reaction to recent civil unrest and police response than any changes in their politics, in my view.

PS: Just in case the Collective disagrees with me, here is what I typically recommend, based on whether they lean more toward a revolver or semi-auto for both home defense and occasional carry:

Revolver: 3-4 inch stainless .357 double-action Ruger, S&W or Colt revolver
Semi-auto: Glock 19 or S&W M&P 2.0 Compact with a minimum of four magazines

Lately, it has depended on availability, but from what I hear back anecdotally, the majority of people are ending up with a Glock 19.  I am not sure if that is due to availability, pricing, or both.  Most of these people make good salaries, so pricing may not be the most important consideration

[Ron]

At least they will experience a similar emotion we do when Leftist leaders talk about banning guns.

[bedlamite]

At least they will experience a similar emotion we do when Leftist leaders talk about banning guns.

Not necessarily, mot lefties I know think the rules are for other people and don't apply to them.

[fifth_column]

Not necessarily, mot lefties I know think the rules are for other people and don't apply to them.

I think it's also possible that they would be willing to go along with any kind of gun confiscation scheme, so long as it was "for the children."

[Perd Hapley]

My, my, what gloomy Guses we all are today! One need not think all the new gun owners are Trump-fanatic militia recruits to see a lot of good news here.

It means that many more Americans are willing to take responsibility for themselves.

It means Americans are moving toward gun ownership, not away from it.

It makes gun control that much more difficult.

Gun ownership will probably move a lot of these newbies to the right.

[Jim147]

Anyone in a swing state seeing any republican ads showing Biden picking Beto as his gun czar and showing what Beto said about guns?

[RocketMan]

Gun ownership will probably move a lot of these newbies to the right.

An unwarranted assumption in my opinion.

[dogmush]

Anyone in a swing state seeing any republican ads showing Biden picking Beto as his gun czar and showing what Beto said about guns?

Haven't seen any in FL.  Ads here (from both sides) are COVID response, the economy, and not supporting the troops.

Even the ads paid for by Everytown for Gun Safety are about Trump bungling COVID response.  I think one local republican running for Congress has mentioned specifically in her ads that she supports AR-15's and will protect them.  Everyone else is pretty quiet on the subject.

[MechAg94]

My, my, what gloomy Guses we all are today! One need not think all the new gun owners are Trump-fanatic militia recruits to see a lot of good news here.

It means that many more Americans are willing to take responsibility for themselves.

It means Americans are moving toward gun ownership, not away from it.

It makes gun control that much more difficult.

Gun ownership will probably move a lot of these newbies to the right.

Just today?   

[MechAg94]

Anyone in a swing state seeing any republican ads showing Biden picking Beto as his gun czar and showing what Beto said about guns?

I have seen something like that, but I can't remember where.  I don't watch much TV so probably online somewhere.

[MechAg94]

It could just as easily be that they are Democrats preparing for the onslaught of white supremacist/boogaloo bois/proud boys into their neighborhoods after Trump is re-elected and declares himself dictator. (Yes, sarcasm.)  Point being, we cannot make any assumptions as to the motivations of these first time gun buyers.  We certainly cannot assume most of them will be born again Trump voters.

I wasn't making assumptions, just trying to discuss possibilities.  The move to buy a gun for people who don't already have one is a change.  We just don't know what is represents and it may not affect the election at all. 

The one assumption you can make is ALL of any voter group will not change.  Most will stick to what they already think.  However, these elections are never very far apart.  A swing of just 1% or 2% of voters could throw things to one side or the other quite a bit.  I find it hard to believe the craziness of 2020 hasn't moved some voters to change direction.  Which way that goes is unknown.

[RocketMan]

The one assumption you can make is ALL of any voter group will not change.  Most will stick to what they already think.  However, these elections are never very far apart.  A swing of just 1% or 2% of voters could throw things to one side or the other quite a bit.  I find it hard to believe the craziness of 2020 hasn't moved some voters to change direction.  Which way that goes is unknown.

Agreed.
On a tangent, I wonder if, when historians and other folks look back at this period, they will see 2020 as the firm start of America's "The Crazy Years" similar to what Heinlein wrote about in some of his stories. (California would be an exception as they are already well into their Crazy Years.)

[Perd Hapley]

Gun ownership will probably move a lot of these newbies to the right.

An unwarranted assumption in my opinion.

No, it's not. I said "probably," "a lot,'' and "to the right." No one is saying "definitely," or "all," or claiming a gun will turn any Antifa Communist into a Knob Creek ever-Trumper.

All I said, and all I mean, is that a significant portion (not necessarily a majority) of 2020's center-left gun newbs will now be less supportive of gun control, and will probably have more positive interactions with right-leaning people, as they interact with us at ranges and gun stores. That's exactly what should be assumed.

[RocketMan]

I am well aware of what you wrote, fistful.  And I am saying it is an unwarranted assumption in my opinion.
In my opinion a small number may move to the right, not a lot.

[fifth_column]

Agreed.
On a tangent, I wonder if, when historians and other folks look back at this period, they will see 2020 as the firm start of America's "The Crazy Years" similar to what Heinlein wrote about in some of his stories. (California would be an exception as they are already well into their Crazy Years.)

I really hope historians will see 2020 as the beginning of the end of the crazy years . . . .

[Fly320s]

Another breakdown of the sales figures.  Shows top 5 states for sales.

https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2020/09/23/key-statistics-firearms-sales-covid-19/

[Perd Hapley]

Another breakdown of the sales figures.  Shows top 5 states for sales.

https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2020/09/23/key-statistics-firearms-sales-covid-19/

Excellent. Pennsylvania, Florida, and Texas. Don't know about you, but I'd like to think that predicts a strong, pro-Trump turnout in three states he really needs to win.

Virginia and California, they're all buying as many as they can before the Democrats pass even more gun control. Plus Cali's huge population pumps up the numbers.

[MechAg94]

But the polls say Texas is a toss up for the election.

[Perd Hapley]

But the polls say Texas is a toss up for the election.

Which is pretty sad, but that's exactly why I like the gun purchase numbers coming out of it.