My opinion/expectation is that Putin is going to get desperate in the near future and do something that drags us into a shooting conflict. I am not optimistic about the outcome.
I don't know if Putin even has the resources to do something stupid to drag us in.
About 75% or more of their deployable forces are in Ukraine already. And their logistics problems are legion, that's clear even through the fog of anecdotal tweets and propaganda. Further intel reports are saying they've used up most of their cruise missiles and SRBM's.
There's lots of speculation about "good stuff" held in reserve, more air power etc. but it's good to wonder if Russia has the same logistical problems there too. Or if they simply can't absorb any combat losses with more expensive assets.
Calls have gone out trying to get mercenaries from Syria, and Russian corporate military groups. But deploying them, feeding them, arming them... they're going to have the exact same problems they've got keeping their existing troops going. And I suspect that even if they actually get a significant number of warm bodies from Syria, the majority of them are going to desert at the first chance, because they all just signed up to get the hell out of Syria, and are hoping to be put within walking distance of the EU to immigrate illegally or on some kind of sanctuary status.
There's weird stuff going on in Belarus, explosions, a complete shutdown of all air travel, and reports of military units refusing to participate in Ukraine.
The advance seems stalled, and if Ukrainian reports are to be believed, they've pushed back and retaken some towns.
I guess there's chem and bioweapons, but it seems like Russia already lacks enough of the conventional hardware that would be used to deploy it.
I think Putin is really in a corner here. The normal pattern of a dictator being surrounded by yes-men has really blinded him to the point he thought he could pull off this invasion. Firing/arresting the head of the FSB, and sacking generals (aside from the several KIA, because command/comms is so bad, they have to lead from the front) is a good sign it's coming apart. But even then, he may not have a full picture of how badly their military is bogged down.
I do think the one thing that Putin may have done well is insulate himself from any coup/assassination attempt, the one thing his days in the KGB might have prepared him for. He plays up his time there, but he was always more of a middle-manager/clerk than an actual "operative". But that kind of bureaucratic ability might be what's ultimately needed to keep the organization under him from acting against him. Analysis of the oligarchs and military show no real links or alternate power-structure that could act against him in a coup, yet.
So I think he's done as their leader, but I think it'll be a slow process to get rolling. In Soviet times when someone was deposed or eliminated, everyone could kind of rationalize what they were doing "For Communism, for the Revolution..." etc. Now they've just got a kleptocratic authoritarian state to "save". Now you've just got a bunch of disparate groups and people who don't know who they can trust, and all afraid to stick their neck out as the first to make a move.
