Author Topic: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.  (Read 5319 times)

onions!

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #25 on: April 28, 2007, 03:18:35 AM »
Hey can we get these two on that MTV show "Yo Mama" or whatever it is?  It is the one where two people eventually square off one on one lobbing insults at each other.  The winner winds up getting money.  But in our version maybe the loser has to wear a "I Love Hillary" t-shirt. grin cheesy

No,one has to wear a burqa,the other a thong. police

>ducking & covering<

Iain

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #26 on: April 28, 2007, 04:53:06 AM »
Have you been out drinking or something?

I'll go with 'been in drinking'

CA - you can keep your little witch hunt and your lists of people you claim the support of to yourself. That's what I'm getting fed up of on this board.

You can go at SS hammer and tongs for all I care, but don't try and draw lines in the sand for the rest of us.
I do not like, when with me play, and I think that you also

Art Eatman

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #27 on: April 28, 2007, 05:42:39 AM »
shootinstudent, I hate to tell ya, but CAnnoneer's analysis of your argument is spot-on.  Although it's done in ranting style, it's highly amusing because of its accuracy.  Not in each and every detail, of course, but in general.

CA:  "Agreed but only with the caveat that their elites will not run out of money. Saudis own a lot of land, businesses, and stocks here, and so do (I suspect) the rest of the Fearless Leaders."

For those who remain alive; for those who are not blocked from their funds.  The Iranian assets, I believe, are already frozen.  Same for Syria?  And if Saudi oil income drops to any extent, the House of Saud is gone, gone, gone.

"The ones that will be reduced (further) into abject poverty and dysfunctional economies are the rank-and-file. A "revolutionary" situation, right out of Vladimir Ilych Lenin's handbook."

Without oil money, the middle eastern oil producers would be without hard currency with which to purchase that which they need for survival in the modern world.  Infrastructure maintenance, among other things.  Kuwait, Saudi Arabi and the Emirates would be hard hit as they see the exit of the imported-alien labor force.

"With a bit of luck, they will have particularly bloody civil wars, thereby reducing the ecological load and demographic pressures in the region."

For all that this is a rather cynical attitude, I really doubt much "luck" would be needed. Smiley  I'd be more prone to call it a foregone conclusion.

Art
The American Indians learned what happens when you don't control immigration.

CAnnoneer

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #28 on: April 28, 2007, 08:03:27 AM »
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CA - you can keep your little witch hunt and your lists of people you claim the support of to yourself. That's what I'm getting fed up of on this board. You can go at SS hammer and tongs for all I care, but don't try and draw lines in the sand for the rest of us.

Correction: I have not claimed they support me. I have claimed that one after the other they get disenchanted with SS's style of argument and general level of intellectual (dis)honesty. That is my perception of what has been going on on multiple threads over time. You are free to disagree with my perception. I encourage you to read recent threads containing SS and see poster response to his style. Judge for yourself.

If anybody is drawing any lines in the sand, it is SS drawing a circle around himself. This board contains many posters with differing ideas on many things, but I've seen nobody else come anywhere close to using outright falsehood, demagogy, furious spin, and propaganda as typical modus operandi. I ride his ass about it because that modus is extremely annoying and demeans the level of discussion in the board itself.

CAnnoneer

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #29 on: April 28, 2007, 08:32:36 AM »
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Without oil money, the middle eastern oil producers would be without hard currency with which to purchase that which they need for survival in the modern world.  Infrastructure maintenance, among other things.  Kuwait, Saudi Arabi and the Emirates would be hard hit as they see the exit of the imported-alien labor force.

Correct. Atlas Shrugged middle-eastern style.

Do you wish to see what the post-oil-era future of the entire region (minus Israel) is? Take a close look at Afghanistan (a.k.a. middle-east minus oil) - abject poverty, collapsing meagre infrastructure, rivaling warlords fighting over pieces of land, extreme tribalism, incessant vendettas, and small arms purchased by dope trade. Essentially medieval lifestyle with bits and pieces of modern technology. We'll give some scraps to non-jihadist warlords and napalm the poppy fields of jihadist ones, to prevent state-sponsored terrorism, but that's about it. The region will sink into irrelevance, where it belongs.

De Selby

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #30 on: April 28, 2007, 11:41:14 AM »
Art,

Sorry, but the whole argument is premised on the notion that those states have no resources besides oil.  That's just silly--Iraq, Iran, and Syria have several orders of magnitude more natural resources than Israel does.  The lack of development of those resources is something an economist can answer better, but don't be surprised when "ugly dictators spend all the money on weapons and hand out all the contracts to cronies" is a big part of it.

The argument CAnnoneer is making is totally without merit.  These parts of the world were highly civilized and developed on par with the most advanced states before the various colonial wars.  The resources and culture that drove that development remain-and there's no reason to doubt that they'll do it again besides some bare racist notion that "dark people" can only develop to a certain point and never beyond.

The comparison to Afghanistan is beyond ridiculous.  That's like saying that Russia is a preview for what America would be without a superpower army.  The language, culture, history, and terrain are so different between Afghanistan and the Arab states that to use one as an example for the other betrays near total ignorance of either.

But I'm not surprised by that--CAnnoneer thinks studying humanities are a waste of time, so unless he's a time waster, it's not likely he's covered much of the material he'd need to in order to have a good grasp on what's going on in these parts of the world.
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

doczinn

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #31 on: April 28, 2007, 03:14:33 PM »
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This board contains many posters with differing ideas on many things, but I've seen nobody else come anywhere close to using outright falsehood, demagogy, furious spin, and propaganda as typical modus operandi.
I have. I won't say the name, but there's one other....
D. R. ZINN

CAnnoneer

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #32 on: April 28, 2007, 09:27:38 PM »
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Sorry, but the whole argument is premised on the notion that those states have no resources besides oil.  That's just silly--Iraq, Iran, and Syria have several orders of magnitude more natural resources than Israel does.  The lack of development of those resources is something an economist can answer better, but don't be surprised when "ugly dictators spend all the money on weapons and hand out all the contracts to cronies" is a big part of it.

And yet, Israel prospers and the others don't. That should tell us something.

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The argument CAnnoneer is making is totally without merit.  These parts of the world were highly civilized and developed on par with the most advanced states before the various colonial wars. 

They were "highly civilized" maybe wrt the middle ages. Ain't saying much by modern standards. Nice try to blame colonial wars for the region falling behind. Art already pointed out the real reason. It is primarily cultural. I would also add it is terrain to some extent as well. They feed upon one another, if you bothered to read Jarred Diamond.

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The resources and culture that drove that development remain-and there's no reason to doubt that they'll do it again besides some bare racist notion that "dark people" can only develop to a certain point and never beyond.

That middle-easterners prosper when leaving behind their cultures and westernizing is beyond doubt. So, keep the racism accusations to yourself, if you can help it (I doubt it). The problem is cultural (see above). Like it or not, those cultures are socially stuck in the middle ages. They have been for the past 500 years, in different guises.

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The comparison to Afghanistan is beyond ridiculous.  That's like saying that Russia is a preview for what America would be without a superpower army.  The language, culture, history, and terrain are so different between Afghanistan and the Arab states that to use one as an example for the other betrays near total ignorance of either.

It aint the terrain although it is different (mountains vs flat desert). It is cultural similarities - chiefly fundamentalism and tribalism. Already covered.

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But I'm not surprised by that--CAnnoneer thinks studying humanities are a waste of time, so unless he's a time waster, it's not likely he's covered much of the material he'd need to in order to have a good grasp on what's going on in these parts of the world.

Waste of bandwidth.

CAnnoneer

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #33 on: April 28, 2007, 09:28:21 PM »
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Quote
This board contains many posters with differing ideas on many things, but I've seen nobody else come anywhere close to using outright falsehood, demagogy, furious spin, and propaganda as typical modus operandi.
I have. I won't say the name, but there's one other....

Leia Organa?

De Selby

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #34 on: April 28, 2007, 10:00:33 PM »
CAnnoneer,

Like I said: a presumption that "dark people" with their cultures don't advance.

Your understanding of pre-20th century Arab culture and society is apparently supported by the same "learning" that told you of the Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights and the West Bank. 

Even today, there are some cultural achievements the Arabs have managed to best westerners at.  They do not experience a culture of crime and criminality like we do--even in third world, poor Arab states, crime is extremely low.  They don't have thousands of people who feel the need to rob, cheat, steal, and murder in order to get other people's purses or rob banks....which is something that is not true of European and American cultures. 

Saying that Afghanistan and Arabia are "Tribal" and therefore similar is like saying that you can learn about America from watching China because they're both secular states.  It's a ridiculous comparison-the similarity between Afghani and Arabian cultures is about as close as the similarity between Mexican and Russian.  That is, they're both peoples who speak a language and eat food  and were converted to Christianity...but otherwise there's not much in common between them.
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

CAnnoneer

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #35 on: April 29, 2007, 07:02:51 AM »
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Like I said: a presumption that "dark people" with their cultures don't advance.

I knew you could not help yourself. Empty statement reiterating your usual strategy - when in doubt, scream "Racism! Genocide! Intolerance! Ignorance!"

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Your understanding of pre-20th century Arab culture and society is apparently supported by the same "learning" that told you of the Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights and the West Bank. 

Actually, I went ahead and checked it out. After the Oslo accords, Israel DID withdraw troops from the West Bank, so I am not senile yet. Perhaps it is now time for us to question your self-professed knowledge in the region??

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Even today, there are some cultural achievements the Arabs have managed to best westerners at.  They do not experience a culture of crime and criminality like we do--even in third world, poor Arab states, crime is extremely low.  They don't have thousands of people who feel the need to rob, cheat, steal, and murder in order to get other people's purses or rob banks....which is something that is not true of European and American cultures. 

Right. If we institute sharya and chop hands off for thievery, there will be a crime drop. So would we get if we execute drug dealers and users in the streets with a plackard around their necks, Chinese style. Some cultural achievement would that be. Medieval laws in modern society. If I proposed something like that, you'd label me barbaric, but coming from you, it is supposed to be the pinnacle of civilization. More evidence for your "stellar" intellectual honesty.

It is amazing that you fail to grasp the correlation between draconian jurisprudence and dictatorships. They thrive upon one another. Bemoaning dictatorships while supporting sharya is thus deliciously ironic.

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Saying that Afghanistan and Arabia are "Tribal" and therefore similar is like saying that you can learn about America from watching China because they're both secular states.  It's a ridiculous comparison-the similarity between Afghani and Arabian cultures is about as close as the similarity between Mexican and Russian.  That is, they're both peoples who speak a language and eat food  and were converted to Christianity...but otherwise there's not much in common between them.

They do not need to be completely identical to share common and important features. More of your "all-or-nothing" "unable to quantify or quantitatively compare" trait. Pointing out that they share those features and that those features produce the same consequences is thus justified. If you do not understand how tribalism produces perpetual violence and weak, corrupt central governments and perpetual backwardness, then you got a lot to learn.

If I were to stoop to your level, it would now be time for me to ask something like: "What kind of a historian / social-scientist are you, if you do not understand something as simple as that? You're are fraud."

De Selby

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #36 on: April 29, 2007, 10:36:38 AM »
CAnnoneer,

Well, looks like your "source" is indeed the source of your problems.  http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/1912079.stm.  Israel never took its troops out of the west bank.  Where did you "verify" this information of yours?

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Right. If we institute sharya and chop hands off for thievery

Most southeast asian countries have penalties equally severe, but have much higher crime.  It is the people, not the penalty.

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Pointing out that they share those features and that those features produce the same consequences is thus justified. If you do not understand how tribalism produces perpetual violence and weak, corrupt central governments and perpetual backwardness, then you got a lot to learn.

What I don't understand is where you're getting that there's enough similarity between the way an Arab society is structured and an Afghan society is structured to declare that the same factors drive violence and strife in both.

How about this: why don't you present some source information that verifies your claims about Afghani versus Arab culture?  That will settle the issue pretty quickly.
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

CAnnoneer

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #37 on: April 29, 2007, 11:59:13 AM »
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Israel never took its troops out of the west bank.  Where did you "verify" this information of yours?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,2763,654280,00.html
http://english.people.com.cn/english/200108/30/eng20010830_78859.html
http://english.people.com.cn/200203/19/eng20020319_92353.shtml
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=49986

These are just some of the first dozen entries you'd get if you bothered to google "West Bank troops withdrawal". Not only DID they withdraw troops from the West Bank, they did it multiple times. It also seems like all they got as a reward for their efforts is broken promises and being shelled with rockets.

It's time for you to recognize the difference between "sympathizer" and "expert".

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Most southeast asian countries have penalties equally severe, but have much higher crime.  It is the people, not the penalty.

Please elaborate on your views of the genetic inferiority of southeast asians.

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What I don't understand is where you're getting that there's enough similarity between the way an Arab society is structured and an Afghan society is structured to declare that the same factors drive violence and strife in both.

Then you simply do not understand how tribalism works and why it is singificant. For a self-proclaimed social-scientist, you have some gaping holes in the basics.

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How about this: why don't you present some source information that verifies your claims about Afghani versus Arab culture?  That will settle the issue pretty quickly.

Right. Let's argue by sound-bites and on the basis of nicely packaged little articles someplace on the web, small enough for all of us to read and comprehend in 2min. May that be the level of our intellectual discourse. Or NOT.

Finding a source like that is completely unnecessary for my stance, something that would be obvious to you if you understood the consequences of tribalism. If you don't, educate yourself. If you do, then explain why tribalism would wreak its damage in Afghanistan but not in arabic countries.

Ultimately, differences between societies can boil down to biogeography, memetics, genetics, and technology. Technology is available, so that cannot be a critical difference. Biogeography is somewhat different, but not different enough to be a critical factor. What is left is memetics and genetics. So, you have to recognize that culture, race, or both are the problem. Those are the options. But, taken out of their environment and planted and assimilated in America, middle-easterners do about as well as any other group, so racial genetics cannot be the issue. The only thing left is memes, or memetic factors. And that is where the answer lies, as Art pointed out.

De Selby

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #38 on: April 29, 2007, 12:11:42 PM »
CAnnoneer,

Let's review those articles:

1. The Guardian: A withdrawal from Gaza, which has never been disputed.

2. Withrdawing from a town in the West Bank is not withdrawing from the West Bank. 

3. Let me quote with key portions bolded:

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said that Israeli troops in the West Bank town of Bethlehem were moving out from areas under the control of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA).

The Palestinian National Authority doesn't control the whole west bank.  If it did, it would control a few hundred thousand Jewish settlers-yeah, like that's going to happen.

4. 
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Olmert has announced his administration will seek to withdrawal from most of Judea and Samaria, which is within rocket firing range of Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Israel's international airport.

Ie, has not withdrawn.

That's pretty basic reading comprehension there.  There has never been a troop withdrawal from the West Bank since 1967.  Ever.   Here's a map of all the Israeli outposts in the west bank from the exact same year your articles are written in:

http://www.mideastweb.org/map_israel_settlements.htm

Looks like it's back to the googling for you on that one.

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Please elaborate on your views of the genetic inferiority of southeast asians.

Sure: there is no genetic inferiority. 

Certainly though, the Arab cultures have managed to avoid the enormous crime problems that Western cultures and Southeast Asian cultures have not.  This is despite the fact that in Vietnam and Cambodia, you will face punishment for crimes every bit as severe as any handed down in an Arab country.  So your claim that the punishment is the reason for the lack of crime is demonstrably false.


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Then you simply do not understand how tribalism works and why it is singificant. For a self-proclaimed social-scientist, you have some gaping holes in the basics

Well, lookie here: I asked you for some substantiation, you reasserted your claim.  How did you learn about "tribalism" and where did the knowledge necessary to conclude that it could be found in both Arabia and Afghanistan come from?

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Finding a source like that is completely unnecessary for my stance, something that would be obvious to you if you understood the consequences of tribalism. If you don't, educate yourself. If you do, then explain why tribalism would wreak its damage in Afghanistan but not in arabic countries.

Again, reasserting the claim just shows how bankrupt it is.  If you had something solid to go with here, you would've just posted it.  But you don't, because your entire knowledge of middle eastern and Islamic affairs appears to come from "CAnnoneer's impressions based on news events he heard discussed over lunch by people who don't study the subject."


It's silly-the man who claims humanities have no value, making a broad sweeping claim about a humanities subject (the organization of Arab versus Afghani societies is not a hard science, any way you slice it and no matter how many terms you'd like to apply to it), and then says "I don't have to provide any substantiation for that because it's obvious."

Let's look at an example of this:

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Ultimately, differences between societies can boil down to biogeography, memetics, genetics, and technology.

Who proved this claim? Huh? Where's the study/experiment/whatever-you-accept-as-proof that validated the claim you just made?

That's a real scientific method of arguing you have there man  grin
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

CAnnoneer

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #39 on: April 29, 2007, 12:29:23 PM »
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That's pretty basic reading comprehension there.  There has never been a troop withdrawal from the West Bank since 1967.  Ever.   Here's a map of all the Israeli outposts in the west bank from the exact same year your articles are written in:

Nice try. You are changing the claims. All I claimed at the time was that Israeli had pulled troops out. I have not claimed that they pulled ALL troops out from EVERYWHERE, or that that they pulled out their settlements from the West Bank. If you misunderstood a greater claim, its your fault.

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Sure: there is no genetic inferiority. 

You are the one who claimed just in the previous post that the difference was the people. Make up your mind and decide if your claim is racist or cultural, or both, then let us know.

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Certainly though, the Arab cultures have managed to avoid the enormous crime problems that Western cultures and Southeast Asian cultures have not.  This is despite the fact that in Vietnam and Cambodia, you will face punishment for crimes every bit as severe as any handed down in an Arab country.  So your claim that the punishment is the reason for the lack of crime is demonstrably false.

Sidestepping the issue when caught, again. You support sharya and consider it a cultural achievement. Medieval laws in modern societies. Do you also support the prescibed punishments for homosexuality? Make up your mind.


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Well, lookie here: I asked you for some substantiation, you reasserted your claim.  How did you learn about "tribalism" and where did the knowledge necessary to conclude that it could be found in both Arabia and Afghanistan come from?

Misdirection again. Do you understand tribalism or not? I think you don't. Jarred Diamond has some good treatment of government levels and evolution of government in "Gun, Germs, and Steel". This is the third time I am giving you a starting reference, and you continue maintaining I have not substantiated. Dyslexia?

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Again, reasserting the claim just shows how bankrupt it is.  If you had something solid to go with here, you would've just posted it.  But you don't, because your entire knowledge of middle eastern and Islamic affairs appears to come from "CAnnoneer's impressions based on news events he heard discussed over lunch by people who don't study the subject."


It's silly-the man who claims humanities have no value, making a broad sweeping claim about a humanities subject (the organization of Arab versus Afghani societies is not a hard science, any way you slice it and no matter how many terms you'd like to apply to it), and then says "I don't have to provide any substantiation for that because it's obvious."

That's a real scientific method of arguing you have there man  grin

Garbage.

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Who proved this claim? Huh? Where's the study/experiment/whatever-you-accept-as-proof that validated the claim you just made?

Who gives a crap who said it? Is it true or not? If you disagree, explain why. I get the impression you are no social-scientist at all. You are a lawyer.

De Selby

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #40 on: April 29, 2007, 12:39:07 PM »
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Nice try. You are changing the claims. All I claimed at the time was that Israeli had pulled troops out. I have not claimed that they pulled ALL troops out from EVERYWHERE, or that that they pulled out their settlements from the West Bank. If you misunderstood a greater claim, its your fault.

Read the link I gave you before you continue. It will save you that much backtracking.


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You are the one who claimed just in the previous post that the difference was the people. Make up your mind and decide if your claim is racist or cultural, or both, then let us know

Unlike you, I don't automatically assume "race" when I use the word "people."  I already told you: culture.

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Misdirection again. Do you understand tribalism or not? I think you don't. Jarred Diamond has some good treatment of government levels and evolution of government in "Gun, Germs, and Steel". This is the third time I am giving you a starting reference, and you continue maintaining I have not substantiated. Dyslexia?

Okay, why don't you show how Diamond's analytical framework at all applies to Afghani versus Arab civilization? Yeah, I've read the book...no, I don't see how your claims about "tribalism" make sense even if you accept that a "history of the world" can be any more valid than a monty python "history of the world."

What specific features of Afghani civilization, for example, drive your claim that it is "tribal" in the same way that Arab culture is "tribal"?  What institutions and cultural norms are shared between the two, and how do they drive violence in either???  Seems to me like you're just pulling this thesis out of thin air, and don't really know anything about how the people in either place actually organize themselves.

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Who gives a crap who said it? Is it true or not? If you disagree, explain why. I get the impression you are no social-scientist at all. You are a lawyer.

Ah, so in other words, you assert the claims, and everyone else has to presume that they're true.  If they question them, it's silliness that must never be answered.

Like I said, some "scientific method" that is Smiley
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

CAnnoneer

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #41 on: April 29, 2007, 04:58:01 PM »
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Okay, why don't you show how Diamond's analytical framework at all applies to Afghani versus Arab civilization? Yeah, I've read the book...no, I don't see how your claims about "tribalism" make sense even if you accept that a "history of the world" can be any more valid than a monty python "history of the world."

Fine. I'll spell it out for the nebbish. 

Towards the beginning of the book Diamond talked about the level of government organization and how one level evolves into another. Generally, people start at the family group, then tribal, then chiefdom, then kingdom, then nation. This progression has been repeated by multiple societies in history. The general traits are that a complex mixture of communications and technological advancement would result in food surpluses and labor specialization, and then in increased trade and cultural homogenization, a common set of laws and customs, a more or less standardized language and system of laws. The particular conglomerate of chiefdoms is united in a kingdom by a power chief, and eventually a nation is born. If you look at European history, you can follow this process over and over again for different eventual countries.

Along this path of progression, neither the Arabs nor the Afghani have progressed very far. In cultural terms, they are at about tribal level to kingdom level, mostly tribal with relatively weak monarchies here and there. They are not nations. In reality, Afghanistan does not look upon itself as a nation; loyalties are very local, to a tribe, a local chief (a warlord) at best. The same is true for the arabic world as well. The Saudis are not a strong, centralized kingdom in a traditional sense. The House of Saud is just the family of warlords currently in charge. Iraq is in the same situation - they are not a nation but a conglomerate of religious and tribal groups - kurds, suni, shiia, as well as all sorts of vendettas at the local level. The units that are more centralized are by necessity the little countries like Quwait, where a single chief can maintain enough political authority due to the geographically and ethnically small range of influence he needs to exert to stay in power.

The reason for all this segmentation is cultural, and to some extent geographic due to historical difficulty of good fast communications over desert terrain. Mohammed tried to change it by giving them a unifying religion (there is only one god and all that...) and saw A LOT of resistance (if you bother to read about his life), but even after he and his political descendents established a superstructure, the warlords managed to split up again by petty bickering about who is to be in charge. They still have not religiously recovered from that, and it is not obvious if they ever will. The crusaders gave them a common enemy so the warlords stopped fighting one another for awhile and work together under Saladin, but then they resumed once the crusaders were gone. Later, the Ottomans stepped in and quelled opposition by a mixture of brute force, administration, and compacts with local princelings. Once the Ottomans were done for, the tribalism reemerged. Lawrence of Arabia took steps to unification, but was quickly trumped out in the power struggle. That is their history at super sprint speed.

Yet another way to think about it is that arabic culture is predominantly a culture of nomadic tribes with all the concomitant boons and problems, not a culture of settled agrarian folk. That is why establishing functional stable nations has been so difficult for them. Selfishness, tribalism, greed, and violence is ingrained in their culture.

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Ah, so in other words, you assert the claims, and everyone else has to presume that they're true.  If they question them, it's silliness that must never be answered.Like I said, some "scientific method" that is Smiley

As usual you completely missed the point. Anybody interested in science and objective reality is primarily worried if something is true or not. They are not worried about references or who said it. Lawyers are the complete opposite. You smell like a lawyer to me. And frankly, you don't even seem to understand what the scientific method is either.

De Selby

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #42 on: April 29, 2007, 05:36:52 PM »
CAnnoneer,

Again, the problem here is that you're fitting these theories to areas about which you have no clue.

Let's take some examples for your post:

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They are not nations. In reality, Afghanistan does not look upon itself as a nation; loyalties are very local, to a tribe, a local chief (a warlord) at best. The same is true for the arabic world as well

In reality, the Afghan level of localism is not anything remotely like that in Arab lands.  The Arabic world does have a nation-they are clearly in favor of pan-Arab unity, and their populations overwhelmingly support leaders based on Arab nationalism.  Gamal Abdl Nasser is still the most popular figure in the Arab world; Hassan Nasrallah is not far behind.  So your assumption about Arab cultures being defined by tribalism is just silly--not only do leaders gain support wide beyond their own tribes, leaders that espouse the kinship of Arabs across the region are the ones with the most support.

When you give examples of weak governments, you are making the mistake of assuming that because loyalty to the government is low, therefore, it must be that tribal loyalties are primary.  That is demonstrably false-look at every study of Arab societies, and you will see that the low level of support for dictatorships has to do with the usual: corrupt economic policy, brutal repression of dissent, and incompetence.  They do not hate the various dictators because they are from different tribes-they hate them because they're bad leaders, period.

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but even after he and his political descendents established a superstructure, the warlords managed to split up again by petty bickering about who is to be in charge.

This was hardly "tribalism" at work.  The size of the Muslim empires was as big, and the staying power as long, as anything the European cultures have ever produced. 

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The crusaders gave them a common enemy so the warlords stopped fighting one another for awhile and work together under Saladin, but then they resumed once the crusaders were gone.

The Crusaders themselves were good examples of barbaric tribalism-they came from a germanic, non-agricultural culture that emphasized personal loyalty over commitment to law or values.  That's why the Crusaders were wiped out, and why they were totally powerless against the Mongol hordes that were eventually defeated by the Mamluks.  As is usually the case with such attempts, your attempt here to roll a good 1000 years of history into one explanation makes for a really bad case.

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Yet another way to think about it is that arabic culture is predominantly a culture of nomadic tribes with all the concomitant boons and problems, not a culture of settled agrarian folk. That is why establishing functional stable nations has been so difficult for them. Selfishness, tribalism, greed, and violence is ingrained in their culture.

Except that the centers of power in the Arab world were Damascus, Baghdad, and Alexandria.  Those were all agricultural breadbaskets-their production was not matched by European rivals for a long time.  How do you explain the rise of the economic prowess of these agricultural zones under Muslim rule if it's the case that their culture was purely a desert nomad's culture, with little ability to establish itself?

It seems that in your history, you skipped over the 1000 out of 1300 years or so that the Muslims were doing very well, and growing economies and cities in such a way that Europe was a barbaric fiefdom in comparison.

And then there's the fact that your post says absolutely zero about Afghanistan in comparison.  Considering that the Afghanis speak a totally unrelated language, live in an entirely different climate, have a radically different traditional legal code, and did not experience the same historical events that the Arabs did (or even terribly comparable ones)....where's the grounds for drawing any connection between what will happen in Arabia and what is happening in Afghanistan?

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Anybody interested in science and objective reality is primarily worried if something is true or not. They are not worried about references or who said it. Lawyers are the complete opposite. You smell like a lawyer to me. And frankly, you don't even seem to understand what the scientific method is either.

Well, it's clearly not "Assert anything you want and refuse to provide any justification if someone questions it."  Can we agree on that?

Having said that...who proved that:
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Ultimately, differences between societies can boil down to biogeography, memetics, genetics, and technology.
?

Who did the groundwork on that one such that we should all accept its truth?


"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

CAnnoneer

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #43 on: April 29, 2007, 07:22:31 PM »
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Again, the problem here is that you're fitting these theories to areas about which you have no clue.

Says you.

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The Arabic world does have a nation-they are clearly in favor of pan-Arab unity, and their populations overwhelmingly support leaders based on Arab nationalism. 

Let's assume your interpretation is correct. So how come they have not united yet?? What is stopping them? What has been stopping them?

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So your assumption about Arab cultures being defined by tribalism is just silly--not only do leaders gain support wide beyond their own tribes, leaders that espouse the kinship of Arabs across the region are the ones with the most support.

Again, if the unifiers are the most supported, why aren't they a single country yet?? Because they all like to pay lip service to unity. They have been doing that at least since the times of Saladin. But when it comes down to putting up or shutting up, they always shut up and do what is best for themselves and their local interests.

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When you give examples of weak governments, you are making the mistake of assuming that because loyalty to the government is low, therefore, it must be that tribal loyalties are primary.  That is demonstrably false-look at every study of Arab societies, and you will see that the low level of support for dictatorships has to do with the usual: corrupt economic policy, brutal repression of dissent, and incompetence.  They do not hate the various dictators because they are from different tribes-they hate them because they're bad leaders, period.

Your assumption is that these bad leaders somehow live in a vacuum and have no supporters of their own. Somehow they magically remain in power while the "good, honest arab on the street" hates their guts. That's bullshit. No regime can survive without sufficient internal support. All regimes topple when they lose it.

You have a completely idealized glorified pink-glasses version of what the arab world is. So long as you have that, you cannot claim objective analysis and understanding.

I would go further to say that their current leaders are essentially the political and cultural heirs of beduin sheikhs. The same level of tyranny, selfishness, tribalism, and violence. In some cases, they are the genetic heirs of the same as well.

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This was hardly "tribalism" at work.  The size of the Muslim empires was as big, and the staying power as long, as anything the European cultures have ever produced. 

More bullshit. History shows an amazing lack for an efficient centralized government. Yes, they collectively controlled a huge territory from Bagdad to Spain, but in reality it was a clay giant. The caliphs that tried to exert more direct control did not last long. Staying power?? And the Ottomans were dominated by turks, so they do not count as arabs, and therefore their empire does not count as arabic either. 

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The Crusaders themselves were good examples of barbaric tribalism-they came from a germanic, non-agricultural culture that emphasized personal loyalty over commitment to law or values.  That's why the Crusaders were wiped out, and why they were totally powerless against the Mongol hordes that were eventually defeated by the Mamluks. 

Say what?? The crusaders were germanic? Check your history books again. Most of them were French, with some English, Germans, Italians, and specifically Venetians thrown into the mix. Also, by the time of the Crusades, ALL of them were coming from settled agricultural societies. Read Joinville and Villehardin. They failed primarily because they were extremely fewer in numbers and could not establish a self-reproducing society. Most of them did not intend to settle but gain fame and riches and return home. The ones that did want to stay and maintain fortresses were in a sea of arabs that hated them and looked for an opportunity to betray and kill them, or at least capture and ransom them if possible.

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Except that the centers of power in the Arab world were Damascus, Baghdad, and Alexandria.  Those were all agricultural breadbaskets-their production was not matched by European rivals for a long time.  How do you explain the rise of the economic prowess of these agricultural zones under Muslim rule if it's the case that their culture was purely a desert nomad's culture, with little ability to establish itself?

I did not say it was purely nomadic. I said it was predominantly nomadic. The settled ones had a subculture of traders that essentially followed the nomadic ways in their dealings with one another. Again, read about Mohammed's life and struggles and come back to tell us that was not tribal and was not how beduins would treat one another in the open desert.

The centers that you mention are FAR older communities from the times of the Persian empire and the following Hellenistic expansion. Here, you are the one that is 1000 years off the mark.

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It seems that in your history, you skipped over the 1000 out of 1300 years or so that the Muslims were doing very well, and growing economies and cities in such a way that Europe was a barbaric fiefdom in comparison.

By virtue of the Egyptian, Persian, Hellenistic, and Byzantine underpinnings, all of which, notice!, were settled agrarian societies. Just because the muslim/arabic nomads took over them by "surrender or die" and converted a bunch of locals, changes nothing. The arabs are shameless enough to claim the credit and you have been bamboozled to believe that.

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where's the grounds for drawing any connection between what will happen in Arabia and what is happening in Afghanistan?

Tribalism, endemic political segmentation, endlessly reciprocal violence among subgroups, inability to produce a nation-state.

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Well, it's clearly not "Assert anything you want and refuse to provide any justification if someone questions it."  Can we agree on that? Who did the groundwork on that one such that we should all accept its truth?

I made a statement and produced a logical framework. In scientific terms, that's a thesis. Nobody is forcing you to accept it as truth. If you do not believe in it, point out the failure of logic. If you do not understand it, ask for clarification.

A scientist does not ask "Who said that?" and judges what is said only on that basis. A scientist looks at the presented hypothesis and judges it against the known body of knowledge and his own understanding of objective reality. If all a scientist does is look for a preceding reference, nothing new will ever be developed. That you expect everything to be referenced to be even considered suggests a (bad) lawyer's mind. This is supposed to be an intellectual discussion, not a zero-sum pissing game; try to exceed your programming.

De Selby

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #44 on: April 29, 2007, 07:46:23 PM »
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Let's assume your interpretation is correct. So how come they have not united yet?? What is stopping them? What has been stopping them?

Primarily because foreign powers will arm and instigate whoever opposes the most promising figures in support of unity.  Whenever someone gets too popular, he is destroyed either by a direct strike on the part of a foreign power, or by arms and funds provided to an unpopular gang which will then attempt to seat itself in power.

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Again, if the unifiers are the most supported, why aren't they a single country yet?? Because they all like to pay lip service to unity. They have been doing that at least since the times of Saladin. But when it comes down to putting up or shutting up, they always shut up and do what is best for themselves and their local interests.

Well, that's tough to do when a well armed foreign power will supply and train and arm any enemy who might have a chance at killing you.

Notice that this is exactly what happened to Nasser-his army was destroyed, and his pan-Arab movement dismantled shortly thereafter not by Arabs, but by Israel.

The same thing was attempted just this summer against the next popular pan-Arab leader, Nasrallah.  It failed, and of course that makes this a crisis time for Western interests in the region.  Ideally, Nasrallah would've been smashed just like Nasser, and a major blow would've been dealt to the anti-Mubarak, anti-Saudi, and anti-Hashemite popular majorities of the region.

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Your assumption is that these bad leaders somehow live in a vacuum and have no supporters of their own. Somehow they magically remain in power while the "good, honest arab on the street" hates their guts. That's bullshit. No regime can survive without sufficient internal support. All regimes topple when they lose it.

Yeah, but "sufficient" doesn't mean anything near "majority."  Especially not when foreign powers are willing to give you all the money and arms you need to stay in power.  That helps dictators along quite a bit.  Having an army that kills anyone who gets out of line and a secret police force that effectively catches anyone trying to organize a resistance helps too.

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I would go further to say that their current leaders are essentially the political and cultural heirs of beduin sheikhs. The same level of tyranny, selfishness, tribalism, and violence. In some cases, they are the genetic heirs of the same as well.

haha, where? Saudi Arabia?  That's about the only one where you can make this claim and have a shot.

The bedouins had no real power, again, until British intervention in the region.  American and British combined support created Saudi Arabia-if they had not occupied a useful niche at the time of the Ottoman wars, there would've been no realistic chance that those groups would've made it into power.  They weren't popular, they didn't have any homegrown support, and their victories were handed to them from the outside. 

You're inventing an "Arab created" history that simply never happened.  The Arabs did not get together and choose to go in that direction-it was heaved upon them by intervention.  If it were so well fitting to their culture, you'd expect that it would've been possible to accomplish without massive foreign armament and would be somewhat stable.  It has been neither.

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Yes, they collectively controlled a huge territory from Bagdad to Spain, but in reality it was a clay giant. The caliphs that tried to exert more direct control did not last long. Staying power?? And the Ottomans were dominated by turks, so they do not count as arabs, and therefore their empire does not count as arabic either. 

Okay, so what are you claiming now then? That the Arab empires that didn't exist and the Arabs who got along fine with the Turks until near the 20th century were "tribal"?  That makes no sense.  On one hand, you're saying that no government can exist without support.  Yet clearly a non-Arab, non-tribal government did exist in these lands for a lot longer than the current governments have.  And on the other hand, you say that Arabs are tribal barbarians who would never support any other kind of government.

How do you plan to resolve that contradiction?

Which history, btw, shows a "lack of effective control" on the part of the Ottomans?

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Somehow they magically remain in power while the "good, honest arab on the street" hates their guts. That's bullshit. No regime can survive without sufficient internal support. All regimes topple when they lose it.

This is just beyond absurd.  If you can't imagine how a dictator could hold on to power while being extremely unpopular, there's no amount of evidence that will convince you because your assumptions are completely irrational.

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Say what?? The crusaders were germanic? Check your history books again. Most of them were French, with some English, Germans, Italians, and specifically Venetians thrown into the mix

Okay, looks like your history books didn't go back enough or spent too much time worrying about defining a "meme" instead of recording the historical sources.

Yes, the English, Germans, Italians, and French were germanic peoples.  They lived under germanic legal codes and were not too far descended from the germanic hordes that turned Europe from the heights of the Roman empire into a bloody, undeveloped, barbarian killing field. 

Germanic hordes were the source of nearly every state that participated in the crusade, except for the mostly forgotten by western triumphalists Byzantine elements. 

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Most of them did not intend to settle but gain fame and riches and return home. The ones that did want to stay and maintain fortresses were in a sea of arabs that hated them and looked for an opportunity to betray and kill them, or at least capture and ransom them if possible.

Well, there was also the problem that their idea of government consisted of "so and so promises to the other so and so that he will do whatever he says, and will respect no other law besides that."  They were notoriously corrupt and had no real organization...they were still a lot like the nomadic barbarian hordes from which their languages and cultures descended.

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The settled ones had a subculture of traders that essentially followed the nomadic ways in their dealings with one another. Again, read about Mohammed's life and struggles and come back to tell us that was not tribal and was not how beduins would treat one another in the open desert.

Except that this claim is totally ridiculous because the centers of power of the Muslim world were the settled, agrarian regions.  To ignore all of that influence and to go back to Muhammad's (peace be upon him) time, where he was not a nomad but lived in a settled, trading establishment, is really naive.  He didn't live in the open desert-he lived in a large trading outpost that was permanent and developed. 

So again, I'm not sure where you're getting the "nomadic" culture.  Islam did not originate with nomads, and the Arab culture most definitely was not solely defined by people who wandered. 

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The centers that you mention are FAR older communities from the times of the Persian empire and the following Hellenistic expansion. Here, you are the one that is 1000 years off the mark

Yes, but you are missing the point: These places developed into economic powerhouses that exceeded anything the Hellenic, Persian, and Roman cultures had created.  They did so under Arab and later Turkish Muslim rule. 

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Tribalism, endemic political segmentation, endlessly reciprocal violence among subgroups, inability to produce a nation-state.

I'm noticing that you can't get beyond conclusory remarks about Afghanistan.  You simply state your case based on a limited knowledge of Arab history, and then say "Afghanistan is the same" as if that constitutes pointing to some specific features of afghan culture that are the same.

Where is the "endemic political segmentation" as you see it in Afghan society? Between which groups? What in the division is the same as in Arab culture?

"reciprocal violence among subgroups"--where is the connection to Arab culture? What are the parallel groups and events?

"inability to produce a nation state"--Again, which groups inabilities are you comparing to the Arabs? And which nation state of the Arabs should be model of failure to which Afghanistan can compare? Why?

I strongly suspect that you have no specifics because you don't actually know anything about Afghanistan, but are instead using the "brown skin and roughly similar clothing" test to determine that it's even remotely similar to the Arab world. 

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I made a statement and produced a logical framework. In scientific terms, that's a thesis. Nobody is forcing you to accept it as truth. If you do not believe in it, point out the failure of logic. If you do not understand it, ask for clarification.

Okay, so I'm asking you: Where is the proof that the thesis is true.  Let's see it.  It is clearly a statement of fact--only these methods of comparing cultures are valid.  So where's the proof?  I am asking you for a reference to the work that established this statement as supported by some evidence...

So where is it?  Let me guess: "It's objective reality because CAnnoneer says so"  rolleyes
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

Pew pew pew

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #45 on: April 29, 2007, 08:41:53 PM »
I just want to move to Dubai. How come no one ever talks about the United Arab Emerites? Dubai is cool.


De Selby

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #46 on: April 29, 2007, 09:13:21 PM »
Pew Pew,

Very nice shot!  I'm with you...zero taxes and tons of money=heaven Smiley
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

roo_ster

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #47 on: April 30, 2007, 07:27:01 AM »
Denying arab culture is still in clan/tribal state is asinine. 

The tribal structure has been encouraged and discouraged at times by arab dictators in the last century, but it remains a fact on the ground.  His tribe is a dictator's base of support and results in oddities like we see in Syria: a chief of a minority tribe ruling the entire country and dependant on his tribe members' holding the key positions in gov't to maintain power.  Saddam Husein was in a similar position.

Inter-tribal jockeying is of a much higher priority than pan-arab unity, if one values the actions of arabs over their words.

Blaming foreigners for all of the arabs' problems might be a balm to pride bruised by current reality, but is not accurate.  The arabs do a fine job of yanking defeat out of the jaws of victory and never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity.  Usually because of internecine squabbles & quest for advantage.

CAnnoneer's original point,
Do you wish to see what the post-oil-era future of the entire region (minus Israel) is? Take a close look at Afghanistan (a.k.a. middle-east minus oil) - abject poverty, collapsing meagre infrastructure, rivaling warlords fighting over pieces of land, extreme tribalism, incessant vendettas, and small arms purchased by dope trade. Essentially medieval lifestyle with bits and pieces of modern technology. We'll give some scraps to non-jihadist warlords and napalm the poppy fields of jihadist ones, to prevent state-sponsored terrorism, but that's about it. The region will sink into irrelevance, where it belongs.
is spot-on. 

The oil-producing middle east countires don't produce much beyond petroleum.  The comparison of non-oil exports has been made with Denmark.  Without the hard currency oil exports bring, a LOT of folks are going to starve and go without modern manufactured goods.  When what passes for central gov't is unable to provide and/or goes tango uniform, folks will look to other existing social structures for help...chief of which is the tribe (pun very intended).  Those chiefs will compete with other tribal chiefs for resources to feed thier kinfolk and accrete power.  They will be fighting over an ever-dwindling stock of resources and infrastructure, as no industrial nation will sell them diddly on credit.

Arguing if the arabs are currently as tribal as Afganistan/Somalia/wherever is a waste of time in this context.  When the central gov'ts are destroyed in the post-oil middle east, the tribes, by default, become more significant. 
Regards,

roo_ster

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----G.K. Chesterton

De Selby

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #48 on: April 30, 2007, 08:54:31 AM »
jfruser,

First point: Asad does not rule because of his tribe-he rules in spite of it and his policy has zero to do with his tribe, which isn't the reason he's in power.  He's in power because his father built a coalition, under the banner of Arab nationalism, of different religious groups that is about half the population.  Then, he did things that Bashar continued, like ban headscarves and prohibit soldiers from praying at mosques, to secularize his country.

Saddam followed a roughly similar course.  So yeah, those are not examples of people turning to their tribes.

I would like to know what you think foreign influence has done in the region.  You just write off the presence of british military and the French conquest of those countries as if it didn't matter.  Why didn't an invasion, occupation, and then installation of governments by foreign powers change things?  Sure seems like that would change the course of any other countries' histories...I'm wondering why you think it is Arabs can't be influenced by the outside.


"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

roo_ster

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Re: So,I guess you won't see a thong on the street in Tehran anytime soon.
« Reply #49 on: April 30, 2007, 11:16:01 AM »
SS:

Syria & Hussein's Iraq are interesting when discussing pan-arabism & tribalism.

Iraq was and Syria still is run by pan-arabist/arab nationalist Baath party adherents.  Syria, Iraq, and Nasserist Egypt are/were arguably the three most pan-arab regimes in the ME.  Quite a bit of pan-arab boilerplate was disseminated under the Baath & Nasserist banner.

Which is where what I said comes into play:
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Inter-tribal jockeying is of a much higher priority than pan-arab unity, if one values the actions of arabs over their words.

Syrian Baath rhetoric is pretty secularist/pan-arab in nature.  It ought to be, since the gov't is dominated by a religious sect that in not only a minority, but is barely considered Muslim.  If one looks at Syria, since 1963 most of the top posts in government are held by Alawites, though they are only ~10% of Syria's population.  Yes, they are a religious sect, but act in a tightly-knit fashion similar to a tribe or clan.  They had best keep up the facade of secular pan-arab unity, lest the majority Sunnis feel their oats.  So, such things as refusing to allow soldiers ot enter a mosque starts to make some sense. 


<I have run out of time and will address some other issues you have raised later.>
Regards,

roo_ster

“Fallacies do not cease to be fallacies because they become fashions.”
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