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Author Topic: Hurricane Beryl  (Read 889 times)

WLJ

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Hurricane Beryl
« on: July 03, 2024, 02:17:29 PM »
Current predicted track(s) of Hurricane Beryl which is currently a Cat 5
Bet Elon is keeping an eye on it because it could hit Starbase head on

Hurricane Beryl predicted to rip through SIX US states, terrifying new forecast model shows
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13596727/Hurricane-Beryl-path-tracker-states-hit.html

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French G.

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Re: Hurricane Beryl
« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2024, 02:51:04 PM »
Hope it rains in the Mid-Atlantic late next week
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AKA Navy Joe   

I'm so contrarian that I didn't respond to the thread.

MechAg94

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Re: Hurricane Beryl
« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2024, 03:27:28 PM »
Where would a Polish AK want to land? 
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dogmush

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Re: Hurricane Beryl
« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2024, 03:52:47 PM »
*expletive deleted*ing daily mail scare mongering.  I don't think it'll even hit the US with the eye, but it definitely ain't tearing through 6 states.

Invest 96 is right behind this one too.  Lots of heat in the Gulf and Carribean right now.
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WLJ

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Re: Hurricane Beryl
« Reply #4 on: July 03, 2024, 04:03:18 PM »
Quote from: dogmush on July 03, 2024, 03:52:47 PM
*expletive deleted*ing daily mail scare mongering.  I don't think it'll even hit the US with the eye, but it definitely ain't tearing through 6 states.

Invest 96 is right behind this one too.  Lots of heat in the Gulf and Carribean right now.

Wording is typical media language which is to be expected but it's only really the track I really cared about.
You can dismiss it all you want but as far as where I'm at in Kentucky the potential track that does show it coming our way is the track that usually produces extreme amounts of rain and a few have even hit us with hurricane force winds even as far inland as us in the past so I for one am keeping an eye on it.
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"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes

“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
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“Those who believe without reason cannot be convinced by reason.”
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dogmush

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Re: Hurricane Beryl
« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2024, 04:11:10 PM »
As the resident Florida Certified Scryer of Spaghetti Models tm I am confident that you can rest easy.  Beryl will not be following that hot pink track.  The 18z Global ensembles all show it staying in Mexico or southern Texas.  The 18z GEFS models DO show a northward turn after smearing the Yucatan, but I don't think it'll be as sharp a turn as they think.

Even if it does turn north it won't be a hurricane after it clears Texas.  MAYBE Arkansas, but that's a long shot.
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WLJ

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Re: Hurricane Beryl
« Reply #6 on: July 03, 2024, 04:21:56 PM »
Quote from: dogmush on July 03, 2024, 04:11:10 PM
As the resident Florida Certified Scryer of Spaghetti Models tm I am confident that you can rest easy.  Beryl will not be following that hot pink track.  The 18z Global ensembles all show it staying in Mexico or southern Texas.  The 18z GEFS models DO show a northward turn after smearing the Yucatan, but I don't think it'll be as sharp a turn as they think.

Even if it does turn north it won't be a hurricane after it clears Texas.  MAYBE Arkansas, but that's a long shot.

Ike followed a similar path and we got hurricane force winds in Louisville Kentucky from that. F'ed things up pretty good because we rarely get those kinds of winds here and trees and big branches were down all over the place taking out power lines. Knocked out our power for a while. Another, can't remember the name, following a similar path did the same though not as bad.
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"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
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“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
― George Orwell, 1984

“Those who believe without reason cannot be convinced by reason.”
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230RN

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Re: Hurricane Beryl
« Reply #7 on: July 03, 2024, 04:55:30 PM »
....
« Last Edit: July 04, 2024, 01:14:41 AM by 230RN »
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WLJ

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Re: Hurricane Beryl
« Reply #8 on: July 03, 2024, 05:50:21 PM »
Dropped to a Cat 4
Some current forecasts subject to change expected it to drop to a 1 when it hits the Yucatan Peninsula. May be a 1 or 2 when it hits Texas

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fwtCPMatHs
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"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes

“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
― George Orwell, 1984

“Those who believe without reason cannot be convinced by reason.”
― James Randi

RocketMan

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Re: Hurricane Beryl
« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2024, 07:21:50 PM »
Beryl is my wife's name.  You can imagine some of the funny hurricane related stuff going on around here right now.
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If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

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Northwoods

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Re: Hurricane Beryl
« Reply #10 on: July 04, 2024, 12:03:49 AM »
Quote from: RocketMan on July 03, 2024, 07:21:50 PM
Beryl is my wife's name.  You can imagine some of the funny hurricane related stuff going on around here right now.

They retired my name from the hurricane list in 1992.
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dogmush

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Re: Hurricane Beryl
« Reply #11 on: July 05, 2024, 11:51:13 AM »
Quote from: dogmush on July 03, 2024, 04:11:10 PM
As the resident Florida Certified Scryer of Spaghetti Models tm I am confident that you can rest easy.  Beryl will not be following that hot pink track.  The 18z Global ensembles all show it staying in Mexico or southern Texas.  The 18z GEFS models DO show a northward turn after smearing the Yucatan, but I don't think it'll be as sharp a turn as they think.

Even if it does turn north it won't be a hurricane after it clears Texas.  MAYBE Arkansas, but that's a long shot.

And the turn north in the models is solidifying as later than the GEFS models showed back then, as the [sweet] tea leaves foretold.  =D  Looks like it probably will hit Texas rather than Mexico, but as I said, it will not be a hurricane by the time it hits the Texas border on the way out.  A couple hundred miles inland from that one model the Daily Mail was hung up on makes all the difference.






***NOTE:  Those image hotlinks may change as  the sites update their products.  I don't feel like hosting static images.****
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WLJ

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Re: Hurricane Beryl
« Reply #12 on: July 05, 2024, 12:14:57 PM »
You mean just like just about every hurricane track two days old does?
They didn't make the track chart, you're hung on the fact the image link for that track went back the TDM when it was just a convenient link for the track that was out at the time. Jeeze let it go.
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"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes

“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
― George Orwell, 1984

“Those who believe without reason cannot be convinced by reason.”
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dogmush

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Re: Hurricane Beryl
« Reply #13 on: July 05, 2024, 12:45:17 PM »
Wait, what? 

I was just adding an update to the thread.  I wasn't trying to do a victory lap or anything.  I thought my laugh emoji and references to the trappings of psychic predictions indicated I didn't take even my predictions all that seriously. 

Not sure what image link you're saying I'm hung up on?
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WLJ

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Re: Hurricane Beryl
« Reply #14 on: July 05, 2024, 12:51:40 PM »
Quote from: dogmush on July 05, 2024, 12:45:17 PM
Wait, what? 

I was just adding an update to the thread.  I wasn't trying to do a victory lap or anything.  I thought my laugh emoji and references to the trappings of psychic predictions indicated I didn't take even my predictions all that seriously. 

Not sure what image link you're saying I'm hung up on?

Seemed like you were dismissing the earlier track chart due to the fact the image link came from TDM
If it's a misinterpretation I apologize

Quote
A couple hundred miles inland from that one model the Daily Mail was hung up on makes all the difference.
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"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes

“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
― George Orwell, 1984

“Those who believe without reason cannot be convinced by reason.”
― James Randi

dogmush

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Re: Hurricane Beryl
« Reply #15 on: July 05, 2024, 01:12:25 PM »
Oh.  I see.  Let me try and clarify.  I was dismissing TDM because they looked at the spaghetti chart, picked the one model run that was nothing like the rest, and then wrote their headline based on that one "terrifying new forecast model" despite the rest of the models in that very run not showing the 6 state thing.  That's why I was so rough on my first response:  The image TDM used in their article did not support their headline claim.

TDM and I are actually using the same site for getting our models: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com  I use that site and Mikes Weather Page at https://spaghettimodels.com/default.htm for 90% of my hurricane prognosticating.  Great info there.
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