So this happened this week:
https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-judge-tosses-machine-gun-possession-case-calls-ban-unconstitutional-2024-08-23/The TL:DR is that a guy was up on federal charges for possession of a machine gun and a Glock Switch, and the Judge dismissed the charges because he said that the state had failed to show that the ban on machine guns (the NFA I assume) was constitutional under Bruen.
One assumes the feds will appeal, but they may be hard pressed to find a historical analogue to a ban on possession of military arms, given the private ownership of field pieces, mortars, warships, and various fast firing volly gun designs during the revolutionary period.
Lawyers are gonna argue though, and it would surprise me if the entire NFA fell, but I could see the ban on new, privat, machine gun registrations being struck down. That is a defacto ban, where it would be stupidly easy to argue that SBRs and Suppressors, while taxed, are readily available.
Interested to see where this goes. If you haven't already, consider joining FPC.