Riley, I don't know if you're right or not.
Fred Thompson is making some serious gaffes on his new campaign trail. He'd better learn to get his issues in order, and be able to articlulate them with the same demeanor and "aw-shucks" style that he's been using so far.
If he keeps stepping in it, he's going to be toast.
Hillary? I firmly believe that she'll be the nominee. After all, the Clinton machine didn't spend the last seven years making sure that Al Gore and John Kerry didn't win (when, in fact, I think either of them could have easily won). The Clinton machine has been working on 2008 since 2000. Hillary will be the nominee.
The Republicans are going to lose next year, and lose big, unless they start talking like Republicans.
As for Thompson, again, he has to get some people around him who are very good at distilling statements about general principles into effective thirty-second sound bites.