Talked to a friend who works in the industry last night. His specialty is as a vehicle wrangler, as he calls it. Mostly, he obtains and provides vehicles for films and TV shows and commercials. Not stunt vehicles, but everything else. His bet (based on his years of experience in the industry):
1. Armourer is done. Whether this was her fault or not, this is a black mark on her career that will never go away. At best, she may end up working for a weapons crew, but she'll never be the full armourer again.
2. Assistant Director who handed Baldwin the gun is done. Same as the armourer, this is a black mark that will end his career. He doesn't have the name to get past it.
3. Baldwin is going to end up writing a big check to settle the civil suits. He will give interviews in which he will cry and blame the armourer and assistant director. And his career will continue unabated, because he is Hollywood royalty. He will say "guns are bad," and will double down on his anti-gun rhetoric.
4. Some feds and some Hollywood types are going to push the idea of legislation banning "real" guns from movie sets, which will do nothing in the long run but, you know, let no tragedy go to waste.
5. The usual gun grabbers are going to triumph this as a showing that, even with all of the safety rules and precautions in place, guns kill innocent people, so we must ban private ownership of guns.
So, in short, the least powerful people on the movie set will suffer the most, and guns will be blamed. So, nothing new.