Egypt: What's happening?

[MicroBalrog]

We come back to one inescapable fact: what's wrong with Muslim societies in the Middle East (and everywhere) is not the fault, even remotely, of Israel.  Muslims want to blame Israel and the Jews for what's wrong with their own cultures.  Were Israel to disappear tomorrow, the Middle East would remain the victim of its own ways and beliefs.

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I'm not sure why you decided to restate that.

[dogmush]

I'm no expert but I have stayed on a floating Holiday Inn that transited the Suez more than a few times. Christ, they have almost finished clearing all the wreckage out of the ditch since their last war. A democratic Egypt would probably lynch whoever decided to start the next one.

This.

The Egyptian military is not the least bit interested in attacking Israel again.

I have trained, drank, and broke bread with a bunch of Egyptian's, some of which were pretty high ranking.  NONE of them want to go try Israel.  If a screaming beard did manage to seize control (something that is by no means assured) they would have a difficult time finding officers to lead that attack, screaming students in the streets notwithstanding.

I also disagree with De Selby's main point that the mid-east's troubles are the result of Israeli aggression.  The issue with the mid-east as a whole is that modern Muslim governments have shown little desire to live in peace with their neighbors, or the world.

[Monkeyleg]

I think I finally understand where De Selby's train of thought is running, although I don't think he's on the right track. (Ok, enough with the train metaphors).

I believe he's saying that the people in the ME are anti-Israel, and the only thing that's kept Israel from being attacked more than it has been is dictatorial governments in the rest of the ME countries. Do I have that right, De Selby?

If so, here's where that line of thought falls apart. The governments or parties most openly hostile to Israel have been largely the ones run by dictators or dictatorial parties: Iran, Hamas, Syria, etc.

Individuals on extremes of an issue are usually in the minority. The majority of people tend to gravitate to the middle on an issue, and many don't care. This is true of Second Amendment issues, abortion, civil rights, what have you.

It would follow that a democratically-elected government, acting on the will of the people, would probably tend to be more moderate on Israel policy than would a government run by someone like Ahmadinejad.

Egypt has been fairly benign toward Isreal under Mubarak, but that's a result of the '67 war, and the military not wanting a repeat of that. A group like the Muslim Brotherhood would likely not be a representative government, but would be more like Hamas, a group that used violence to win its election.

[De Selby]

Monkeyleg, that is my point - the dictatorships that Israel has actively supported (in one case it actually saved the royalty in Jordan) are the only reason it has been able to get cooperation on security.

You point to Iran, Hamas, and Syria without highlighting one crucial factor - those entities, while far from freedom-loving, are miles ahead of places like Mubarak's Egypt in terms of political rights and representing their populations.  They are significantly more popular, which is why they aren't threatened with mass waves of protest like the rest of the middle east. One thing, for example, many forget about Iran is that equally large numbers of people turned out (unpaid, significantly) to support the regime as to oppose it.

The torture and repression bill for Iran and Syria to remain in power has, on the whole, been far lower from year to year than in any of the Israel-allied (Jordan, Tunisia, Egypt) or Israel-neutral (Saudi, UAE, Yemen, the gulf monarchies generally).

Ahmadinejad and his nuclear program consistently poll so far ahead of Israel and the gulf leaders it's almost a joke - on the numbers at least, that guy more represents the Arab public than any of the Arab leaders (except Hassan Nasrallah, who is easily the most popular Arab politician in the world.)

The angry anti-Israel chants in both of the revolutions so far are further evidence to support this view.

[roo_ster]

The torture and repression bill for Iran and Syria to remain in power has, on the whole, been far lower from year to year than in any of the Israel-allied (Jordan, Tunisia, Egypt) or Israel-neutral (Saudi, UAE, Yemen, the gulf monarchies generally).

I call bullhockey on most of that due to the excessive bullhockey content.

[Monkeyleg]

They are significantly more popular, which is why they aren't threatened with mass waves of protest like the rest of the middle east. One thing, for example, many forget about Iran is that equally large numbers of people turned out (unpaid, significantly) to support the regime as to oppose it.

Oh, yeah. I imagine the Iranian government is really beloved, which is why they killed dozens (according to some sources hundreds) of the protestors, and injured thousands.

Please don't let Obama hear that killing protestors is a way to gain popularity.

[Balog]

Yes the US would count, although it has extremely dangerous security state trends - I don't think anyone on APS would disagree that the "OMG Terror! I better imprison you without charge and search your kids' diapers" is out of hand. 

Most of Western Europe are, Australia certainly is.  Canada too, of course.  I judge it based on freedom of speech, integrity of elections, and minimal intervention of the state into matters of private conscience.  So those countries let you worship how you want, sleep with who you want to, do what you want in your home, etc, which in my mind makes them liberal democracies.

I'll point out that Canada has jailed at least one pastor for "hate speech" after pointing out that the Bible expresses condemnation of homosexuality.

[De Selby]

Oh, yeah. I imagine the Iranian government is really beloved, which is why they killed dozens (according to some sources hundreds) of the protestors, and injured thousands.

Please don't let Obama hear that killing protestors is a way to gain popularity.

Who is saying Iran is loved?  What I am saying, and what the evidence supports, is that it has far more support from it's people than any of the gulf states. That's likely the product of the fact that Iran actually has elections, even if the elected officials aren't the supreme power.

This is more a comment in just how bad the gulf dictatorships are, that their people look with admiration on Iran.

[Monkeyleg]

...what the evidence supports...

I always like seeing evidence. Can you show it to me?

[dogmush]

Are you actually arguing that Iran's elections accurately represent the will of the people?

:shakes head.

Also, I don't think that's correct at all.  There's several MidEast countries where the government enjoys the support of the people. Kuwait for instance. 

[De Selby]

I always like seeing evidence. Can you show it to me?

Sure.

First off, there's no way to compare Gulf and Jordanian presidential elections to Iran - that's because they don't have them, and Iran does.

Hamas, incidentally, was elected.

I hope those facts aren't in dispute; if they are I'll drudge up some articles.

Public opinion in Arab countries has about 57 percent of the population saying that a nuclear armed Iran would improve their region: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2010/08_arab_opinion_poll_telhami/08_arab_opinion_poll_telhami.pdf

The same poll lists the public as identifying, by a margin of 88 percent, Israel as an enemy.  9 Percent of Arabs think Iran is an enemy.

The top three leaders admired outside of each Arab country?  Recep Erdogan, Hugo Chavez, and Hassan Nasrallah.

Of course, you don't need the statistics to see the obvious, which is that Egypt and Tunisia are gone, Jordan is particularly uneasy, and the Gulf states are in over-drive trying to cut off protests at the knees.

The states most likely to survive the wave of protests are Syria and Iran.  I don't think any serious analyst of the situation would deny that, even though they will both face some protest (and both should.)  The reason is that they have much stronger popular support, and can field supporters of their regimes in response....the Arab states besides Syria have zero support, because they rely on gun-barrel governance at the hands of folks like the UAE royal who tortures people on video for fun (and gets acquitted of it in his own courts.)

Further evidence of the brutality, btw, is in the protest deaths...

Iran protest killings from today's protests:  1

Egyptian killings from its protests:  300.



Dogmush,

Iranian elections aren't exactly free and open, but they aren't meaningless either - the population actually gets to choose from a range of opinions.  It's a whole lot better than say, Saudi Arabia, where you get no choice whatsoever.

Kuwait commands so much loyalty from its people that they ran, arms loaded with watches and money, as fast as they could from Saddam rather than stand and fight for the royals.  Kuwait's government would last about five days if the protest-lid cracks there.

Try to analyze it this way - if you were a random Arab guy and your personal freedoms were your main concern, which Arab state, or Iran, would you choose to live in?

[MicroBalrog]

Iran protest killings from today's protests:  1

Egyptian killings from its protests:  300.

Remember the Egyptians reached that number over several days. To compare them in this way is a fallacy.

[De Selby]

Remember the Egyptians reached that number over several days. To compare them in this way is a fallacy.

While that's true, even the Iranian 09/10 election crackdown did not kill as many over a longer period.  And there were investigations and charges afterwards for some of the killers.

Iran and Syria are not great, freedom-loving places by any stretch of the imagination.  They oppress their people and do not govern only by consent.  Still, they're so far ahead of the medieval basketcase that is Saudi Arabia (and all of its allies) that they are honestly the most stable regimes in the region.  They will be the last to go, if they go at all (and I hope they will - I believe in democracy everywhere.)

[MicroBalrog]

Syria: So amazingly popular, 17,000 people had to be murdered for the regime to continue.

In other terms, Syria killed more Arabs in one day than Israel had from 1982 to 2010, combined, in Lebanon, Israel, and Palestine.

Alternatively for scale, the amount of Arabs murdered by the Syrian government on that day is double the casualties of all Arab countries in the Yom Kippur War.

[De Selby]

Syria: So amazingly popular, 17,000 people had to be murdered for the regime to continue.

In other terms, Syria killed more Arabs in one day than Israel had from 1982 to 2010, combined, in Lebanon, Israel, and Palestine.

Alternatively for scale, the amount of Arabs murdered by the Syrian government on that day is double the casualties of all Arab countries in the Yom Kippur War.

Yes it did - before facebook and twitter, when people could organise to respond to these sorts of things.  Syria is a different country today, and Bashar is a different leader.

Iran would've off'd lots during the post 79 chaos as well.  Guess what? Those days are history - we're dealing with a reality of relatively stable countries today.

[longeyes]

If it's "stability" you value most, you'll find a lot of that in the annals of despotism.

The key issue isn't democracy or autocracy, it's protection of individual and minority rights.  Judged on that basis, you're looking at a void.

[MechAg94]

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Iranian-Lawmakers-Demand-Death-Penalty-for-Opposition-Leaders-116216749.html
http://news.oneindia.in/2011/02/03/atleast-66-execution-in-irans-death-penalty-in-januaryu-aid0127.html
Just a quick google search reveals the on going peace and love and freedom in Iran. 

[makattak]

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Iranian-Lawmakers-Demand-Death-Penalty-for-Opposition-Leaders-116216749.html
http://news.oneindia.in/2011/02/03/atleast-66-execution-in-irans-death-penalty-in-januaryu-aid0127.html
Just a quick google search reveals the on going peace and love and freedom in Iran. 

Yeah, yeah, but most people have learned to keep their heads down so they aren't killing as many people as before. ERGO, it must be a just state!

[De Selby]

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Iranian-Lawmakers-Demand-Death-Penalty-for-Opposition-Leaders-116216749.html
http://news.oneindia.in/2011/02/03/atleast-66-execution-in-irans-death-penalty-in-januaryu-aid0127.html
Just a quick google search reveals the on going peace and love and freedom in Iran. 

Who on this thread is saying Iran is a just state?  I don't see that proposition put forth anywhere.

[roo_ster]

CBS News Chief Foreign Correspondent Separated From Her Crew And Brutally Assaulted on Day Mubarak Stepped Down

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/15/60minutes/main20032070.shtml?tag=exclsv

Depose a dictator and rape an infidel. 

Yay for the new & improved rapists in Egypt!

http://ace.mu.nu/archives/312107.php

Makes sense. Depose a tyrant, why not top it off with a rape of the infidel?...

...goddamn if I am not weary of a barbaric desert nomad culture of rape and outrage while carrying around a ton of chip-on-the-shoulder arrogance-hiding-profound-insecurity about it all.

Oh right, a thousand years ago they invented algebra. So, like, they should keep doing victory laps over that.

[MicroBalrog]

Why are we tarring all Egyptians with the same brush? After all, other Egyptians intervened like good Samaritans and protected this woman. Can I call them a culture of rapist-stoppers too?

[roo_ster]

http://jammiewearingfool.blogspot.com/2011/02/logan-assaulted-by-goons-yelling-jew.html

It turns out that they thought she was a Jew whore/spy, so that makes it all OK.

[MicroBalrog]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuImyhB-Qmg

This man provides a wise summary of the events so far.

[Balog]

Micro: can we agree that different countries have different cultures, which view and value both gender and human rights differently? That being the case, why should pointing out systemic cultural mores be so offensive to you? America places a greater cultural importance on guns. /gasp how dare I broad brush all America that way!

[MicroBalrog]

Next time there is a school shooting, do not be offended to see foreign media fall over each other in the rush to depict America as horrible, hyperviolent, racist place.