Will Peak Oil be the next "Global Warming" farse?

[charby]

I've been doing some reading on the whole petroleum situation. Seems that there are two camps, one thinks we're running out of oil very soon and the other that we have a long time to go before we hit peak oil.

I really think we have high oil prices because of the weakening of the dollar and its the new investment speculation for those folks that shouldn't be investing like the Joneses. First it was tech, then housing and now lately it has been energy. I remember tons of radio ads back in the late nineties trying to get folks to invest in oil and gasoline.

I think prices are going to drop dramatically in the next couple years, people are going to loose their assets and asses. This is just my own opinion.

I'm more concerned about drinking water and food. Those are more realistic problems that are under the radar.

I'm curious how everyone feels about it?

[Manedwolf]

Food and water are always more of a concern.

People will piss and moan if there's no gas at the gas station.

If there's no food or water, they'll riot and kill.

[The Annoyed Man]

I'm more concerned about drinking water and food. Those are more realistic problems that are under the radar.

Agreed. Clean water is getting more scarce all the time, even in, especially in the U.S.  Some parts of the country have been under drought for years now.  Of course, we can make clean water simply by building de sal plants.  You can't make more oil.

But, is the high price of oil due to an approaching 'peak oil' crisis or something else?  Geologists know of huge oil deposits that remain untouched, and expect there are others not yet discovered.  I submit that the problem is not a natural shortage of oil, but an artificial shortage as a result of production and supply methods.

Over the last, what, decade or so there have been mergers and consolidations of oil companies, resulting in fewer companies and less competition.  And because oil is allowed, or treated as a speculative commodity on the open market, the prices are artificially driven up by non oil industry profit seekers.  Concurrently, oil company profits (for whatever reason, I don't want to argue about 'why') are at historic highs. 

Now, the retail price of oil and gas are in fact set by the market, which will charge as much as people are willing to pay. So, as a result, these fewer, bigger oil companies don't have any incentive to produce more oil at higher costs of production for what would then be less profit.

The current 'free market' system isn't working for anyone but the oil producers and speculators.  Some changes are needed.  Here's what I suggest:

1) Dust off the unused (since the Reagan administration) anti trust laws and break up some of these monopolies.  Provide the newer companies with tax incentives and opportunities for new production, like Anwar.

2) Remove oil as a publicly tradeable commodity to get rid of speculation that does nothing but drive up prices without creating or adding any value.  IOW, the only people who trade in, or treat oil as a commodity are the oil producers themselves. 

Those two actions will go a long way to solving any 'shortages' and will bring the retail price down to realistic levels.

[Manedwolf]

YAY! MORE BIG GOVERNMENT!

Also, you need to look up the definition of "monopoly". The fact that, oh, DIFFERENT companies like ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron-Texaco, and BP are competing means that there is no monopoly.

Competing companies. Not monopoly. I thought that was pretty simple.

BTW, Paddy, Hugo Chavez agrees with you 100%. Nice company you keep.

[The Annoyed Man]

OK, not 'monopoly'.  Oligopoly.  Break up the oligopoly.  The more competition, the better, don't you agree?  The point is to create more competition, and remove oil as a publicly traded speculative commodity.

If you have a better idea, post it.  Oh, no, wait.  I already know what it is.  Something along the lines of 'kill all the moonbat greenie Prius driving California communist/socialist/liberal statists".

There.  I saved you the trouble. 

And, you're a Great American.  Now go back to listening to Lee Greenwood.

BTW, Paddy, Hugo Chavez agrees with you 100%. Nice company you keep.

Hugo Chavez wants to promote free market competition between privately owned oil companies?  What are you smokin', dude?  Or is there just some kind of viral pollen blowing around there in NH?

[Manedwolf]

Again, if the answer is more government, it was a really stupid question.

Do you just not realize what a statist you are?

"Oh, help us, Big Goverment! Create some new agencies and saaaave us from ourselves!"

[RoadKingLarry]

So which of the foreign titled companies do you think the US needs to break up? or do you just want to damage US based capitalism. Of course were I the board of a US comany that "they" decided needed to be regulated out of existance I might consider moving offshore as well. Of course you could nationalize all the US based assets but again, I think they call that facism.

[roo_ster]

We will forever "almost" reaching peak oil.

Reason being, it makes no sense to explore for more if you have more in the ground than you can get out in a particular time period.

[roo_ster]

So which of the foreign titled companies do you think the US needs to break up? or do you just want to damage US based capitalism. Of course were I the board of a US comany that "they" decided needed to be regulated out of existance I might consider moving offshore as well. Of course you could nationalize all the US based assets but again, I think they call that facism.

If you nationalize them, it is fascism.

If you socialize them, it is socialism.

Of course, it is the same dang thing.

[wmenorr67]

How do you prevent China from buying up all that they can get their hands on?

And it doesn't matter how much oil we can get our hands on, there is only so much that we can refine.  Get more refineries and the price of gas goes down.

[The Annoyed Man]

So which of the foreign titled companies do you think the US needs to break up? or do you just want to damage US based capitalism. Of course were I the board of a US comany that "they" decided needed to be regulated out of existance I might consider moving offshore as well. Of course you could nationalize all the US based assets but again, I think they call that facism.

Apparently, reading comprehension is not your strong suit.  Or maybe kneejerk reactionism is simply your automatic response.   All those mergers over the last decade +  were APPROVED by government.  In fact, those companies wouldn't even exist without government recognition of their corporate status.   Back, oh, some 120 years ago, an number of companies were broken up with antitrust laws.  One of them was Standard Oil.   More recently, AT&T was the subject of antitrust action.  Look up the history of those two and then tell me they were 'regulated out of business'. 

Oh, and fascism is exactly what we have now, with the our system of corporate owned government.

[Firethorn]

We will forever "almost" reaching peak oil.

Actually, it's quite possible we'll hit peak oil in 50 years or so.

All it'll take is that price sliding upwards enough that alternatives are now cheaper.  At that point oil will go into decline, perhaps even becoming cheaper due to reduced demand from everybody switching over to alternate fuel vehicles.

The 'Peak' is when oil production hits it's maximum point before decreasing.  I figure it'll happen as the world(read: China&India) finishes industrializing.

[charby]

The current 'free market' system isn't working for anyone but the oil producers and speculators.  Some changes are needed.  Here's what I suggest:

1) Dust off the unused (since the Reagan administration) anti trust laws and break up some of these monopolies.  Provide the newer companies with tax incentives and opportunities for new production, like Anwar.

2) Remove oil as a publicly tradeable commodity to get rid of speculation that does nothing but drive up prices without creating or adding any value.  IOW, the only people who trade in, or treat oil as a commodity are the oil producers themselves. 

Those two actions will go a long way to solving any 'shortages' and will bring the retail price down to realistic levels.

I agree with you in that I wasn't happy when the oil company mergers happened and I could see the government stepping in to break them up a bit, that is one thing I like the government to do. I can also see how much of a pain it is since oil is a global commodity and controlled by a various sects of global commerce.

Oil can never be removed as a public traded commodity, who would set the price then? Oil is mined/produced globally, same as most commodities. I do think that they need to end after hours trading in America of energy components. Enron lobbied congress to let this happened back in the late 90's if IRC. All commodities need to be traded only when the market is open.

-Charby

[The Annoyed Man]

Oil can never be removed as a public traded commodity, who would set the price then? Oil is mined/produced globally, same as most commodities.

I think the SEC could limit purchases to those actually engaged in the oil business.  IOW, unless you're actually buying oil (crude oil) to process and resell, you're prohibited from doing it.  No private speculation.

[charby]

Oil can never be removed as a public traded commodity, who would set the price then? Oil is mined/produced globally, same as most commodities.

I think the SEC could limit purchases to those actually engaged in the oil business.  IOW, unless you're actually buying oil (crude oil) to process and resell, you're prohibited from doing it.  No private speculation.

That would only apply to American markets. I do see your point and it does make sense but I'm baffled by it. It would like saying the same thing in regards to gold and silver.

[K Frame]

Oil only became a publically traded commodity in the 1980s.

Prior to that, OPEC set the price per barrel.

Today, OPEC can manipulate the price by changing production allocations.

[The Annoyed Man]

That would only apply to American markets. I do see your point and it does make sense but I'm baffled by it. It would like saying the same thing in regards to gold and silver.

Unlike oil, changes in the prices of gold and silver don't affect everything else in the economy.

[doc2rn]

To fix the big oil problem all we have to do is mandate all vehicles be flex fuel vehicles. Give Americans the choice of buying Organic Biofuel made here or imported oil and we make them lower the price through competition.

[charby]

To fix the big oil problem all we have to do is mandate all vehicles be flex fuel vehicles. Give Americans the choice of buying Organic Biofuel made here or imported oil and we make them lower the proce through competition.

Lets ruin our arable soil at an alarming rate!! Now we can't afford oil and are not able to grow food.

[Nitrogen]

If we get Big Ole Mean Government involved, let's at least do it in a way that might support capitalism:

How about a giant tax break over x years for the first energy company to come up with a way to power our economy using only a domestically produced means, and/or renewable.

I'm sure ExxonMobil would love an excuse to keep even MORE of the gazillions they already make.

[grampster]

You would think, this being an election year and all, one of the candidates, the one who really wants to be president would campaign on this:

Elect me and I'll bring all the oil, gas, coal, nuclear, refinery, hydrogen, solar, wind, river current, ocean current, wave energy and anyone else in the energy business except those who grow food folks into Washington the week after I'm inaugurated.  All previous agreement and rules will be off the table.  We'll start from scratch and nobody will leave till we've hammered out some sort of mutual agreement for a long term national energy program.   If congress fails to go along with what we come up with, I'll go on national television and ask the American people what they think they ought do about any congressman or senator who would obstruct that plan without providing a detailed positive, progressive alternative.

I'd wager, since markets are moved more by emotion than reality, energy prices would plummet almost immediately because no speculator wants to get caught holding futures that are basically worthless.

PS:  A couple of geologists wrote a book, I'm still looking for it, that claims that oil is a renewable resource and it is regenerating as we speak.

[Sergeant Bob]

Again, if the answer is more government, it was a really stupid question.

Do you just not realize what a statist you are?

"Oh, help us, Big Goverment! Create some new agencies and saaaave us from ourselves!"

I've noticed you're against "Big Govt", except when it applies to your wants.

You're just as much a statist as Paddy when it comes to what you want.

[Fjolnirsson]

PS:  A couple of geologists wrote a book, I'm still looking for it, that claims that oil is a renewable resource and it is regenerating as we speak.

You're thinking of abiotic theory. Basic premise is that oilis a natural byproduct of the Earth's internal processes, rather than a product of squeezed dinos/plant matter.

[Regolith]

Oh, and fascism is exactly what we have now, with the our system of corporate owned government.

Wait, did somebody change the definition of facism while I was asleep?


Lets see...

fascist
One entry found.

fascism


Main Entry:
    fas·cism Listen to the pronunciation of fascism
Pronunciation:
    \ˈfa-ˌshi-zəm also ˈfa-ˌsi-\
Function:
    noun
Etymology:
    Italian fascismo, from fascio bundle, fasces, group, from Latin fascis bundle & fasces fasces
Date:
    1921

1often capitalized : a political philosophy, movement, or regime (as that of the Fascisti) that exalts nation and often race above the individual and that stands for a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, severe economic and social regimentation, and forcible suppression of opposition2: a tendency toward or actual exercise of strong autocratic or dictatorial control <early instances of army fascism and brutality  J. W. Aldridge>

Hmm...nope, I don't see anything in there about corporations.  Not even parts where they pay off politicians. 

If you're going to use a term, you should probably understand what it means first.

[doc2rn]

Charby wrote~

Lets ruin our arable soil at an alarming rate!! Now we can't afford oil and are not able to grow food.

We are doing this already. We gave away $200 Million in food last year, the world wants us to provide $750 Million nest year and George W. said this yesterday! Biofuel does not have to be made from edible grains. We can make it from sugar cane stalks, switch grass, tree bark, and used deep frier oil. Heck Utah has practically switched over to natural gas cars and trucks.

My point is if they have competition they will have to lower the price to be marketably competitive.