Now that Hamas has seized control of the Palestinian Authority...

[K Frame]

Anyone care to make any bets as to how long the PA remains in existence?

Personally I give it about 18 months before Israle, fed up with the escalating violence, comes down like the fist of God.

[The Rabbi]

Coming into power tends to have a moderating effect on people.
Hamas is really no different than Fatah.  One big difference is that Hamas actually has a good track record of running charitable institutions, which probably won them the election.

[pauli]

fatah was so corrupt that even the palestinians wouldn't put up with it anymore. they went with hamas because, crazy by our standards or not, they were relatively honest, they give back to the community (least they can do for all the suicide bombers ), and they ran a strong campaign. hopefully, by the next election, more moderate parties will rise to the fore.

[K Frame]

"Coming into power tends to have a moderating effect on people."

You mean like Idi Amin, Saddam, or the Taliban?

[garrettwc]

Rabbi, while I don't dispute what you say, I have to agree with pauli. Most of their 'community service' is likely quid pro quo for the families of their recruits. I percieve this to be more like the Iran situation after the Ayatollah took over.

My first thought after seeing this news was similar to Mike Irwin's. Israel will bide its time [mostly due to pressure from the US], but once Hamas pulls something, the IDF will start killing people and breaking things.

[matis]

Anyone care to make any bets as to how long the PA remains in existence?

Personally I give it about 18 months before Israle, fed up with the escalating violence, comes down like the fist of God.

While we're waiting for the fist of G-d, Mike, Israel will most likely be giving up most of the West Bank and part of Jerusalem to the enemy who almost daily spill Jewish blood.


Ehud Olmert has just decided to change the course of the security fence around Jerusalem to exclude an Arab village.  This allows the Arabs to fire upon the highway and Jerusalem from the hills this exclusion yields to them.


The Israelis giving up Gaza is a large part of the reason that Hamas won the election.

The Arabs in Gaza and the territories are exultant.  They are riding high, full of confidence and they have united with the Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt, with Syria and with the Iranian mad mullahs.  The Israelis have allowed Al Qaida a base in Gaza from which to threaten all of Israel and the rest of the world including the US.


I'm sorry to say that except for a minority, these are not your grandfather's Israelis.


They are descended from the secular Jewish Zionists who fought to establish and defend Israel.  They were indeed heroic and achieved miracles.


But their vision was socialist and now their god is "democracy".  The Arabs have one of the highest birth-rates in the world.  The Jewish birth rate is around one third of that.

Given this reality -- can they allow Israeli Arabs, who hate them, to vote?

Can the Jews vote in Arab countries?  I can move to Japan, but can I become a citizen there and vote?


The Israelis are demoralized, depend too much in American foreign aid and have therefore turned Israel into a vassal state of the US.  They want peace at just about any price -- they have more interest in an American-style consumer life-style than in facing reality about their own survival.


Trouble is, US foreign policy must take into account far more than just Israel.  It is not inconceivable that somewhere down the road, the US could allow Israel to fall, if she deems that unavoidable for her own purposes.  As it is, Condi Rice forced the Israelis to give up control of the Raifa crossing in Gaza through which now pass 100's of tons monthly of high-grade arms and missiles and unimpeded terrorists.

The Israelis were forced to be content with monitoring the crossing through cameras they couldn't even control.  For some strange reason, the cameras don't work, anyway, not that they were worth anything in control of the crossing.


Zionism among the secular, around 60% of Israelis has waned.

Today's real Zionists are the "right-wing religious zealots".  Only they know that it is suicide to trade land for an illusory peace.  And only they will not compromise away Israeli security to please the "international community".  The comminity who are the descendents of those who made the holocaust or who looked the other way and did nothing to stop it.  Their latent anti-Semitism is roaring back to life, anyway, in part prodded by their growing Muslim population.


The Israeli military is still formidable.  But all through the history of modern Israel, the military have handed miraculous victories to a succession of Bolshevik governments who in almost every case -- p-ssed the miracles away.

If Israel is not to be a Jewish state, after 2000 years of merciless persecution and murder culminating in genocide against the Jews of the diaspora, then by what right does it exist where it does, surrounded by 100's of millions of Arabs who live only for her destruction?  The religious Israelis possess the timeless vision necessary to preserve the state and make her invincible.  The others think it's ok to treat the land as if it were parcels in a game of monopoly.


Israel must learn basically the same lesson we Americans must learn.  Total emphasis on mindless, unfettered civil liberties extended to an internal fifth column who hate their host country -- is suicide.  

Reality just ain't simple.


Your posts indicate your friendliness to Israel, Mike.  As for myself the Israelis have allowed me to raise my head and keep it up after a childhood spent absorbing endless images and stories of Jewish helplessness before the onslaught in Europe.


But unless the death-grip the left holds on Israeli schools, media, the courts is broken, her chances are not good.


'Course our situation in the US is not really that much different, is it?



matis

[The Rabbi]

"Coming into power tends to have a moderating effect on people."

You mean like Idi Amin, Saddam, or the Taliban?

How do you kow the Taliban werent more moderate after they took over?
I was thinking more of Ariel Sharon.  Or the current Turkish government.  Or Britain's Labor gov't.  And how much aid did Amin or the Taliban get from the US?
You can always find exceptions.  Which is why I said "tends to".

Rabbi, while I don't dispute what you say, I have to agree with pauli. Most of their 'community service' is likely quid pro quo for the families of their recruits. I percieve this to be more like the Iran situation after the Ayatollah took over

Then you havent been following this.  I am obviously no fan of Hamas but they have a huge network of schools, hospitals, clinics, food kitchens etc etc.  People remember that.  Sure they support and favor their own.  But their support is not predicated just on that.

[toro]

Hamas is listed as a terrorist group by the European Union, Canada, the United States, and Israel, and its attacks targeting Israeli civilians and other human rights abuses have been condemned by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. The organization is particularly popular among Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, though it also has a following in the West Bank, and, to a lesser extent, in other Middle Eastern countries and throughout the Palestinian diaspora, including within Israel. The movement's popularity stems from its provision of welfare and social services to the Palestinian poor and its paramilitary activities, as well as from the perceived corruption of the Fatah party. Outside the Arab world, Hamas is primarily known for its suicide bombings against civilians in busy urban areas in Israel. It is notorious for its generous payments to the families of suicide bombers on one hand while in an attempt to change its image in the eyes of the west Hamas is also paying a media consultant $180,000 (£100,000) to persuade Europeans and Americans that it is not a group of religious fanatics who relish suicide bombings and hate Jews.

Israel needs a prime minister like Golda Meir.  
Operation Wrath of God
Following the 1972 Munich Massacre at the summer olympic games, Meir appealed to the world to "save our citizens and condemn the unspeakable criminal acts committed". Meir and the Israeli Defense Committee felt that the world did not adequately respond and therefore authorized the Mossad to kill Black September and PFLP operatives wherever they could be found.

They need someone strong and someone who believes that God can win no matter what the numbers may be.  In the Old Testament God always works with smaller numbers to achieve a win.  

                                             Mrs. Toro

===
Judges 7:7
And the LORD said unto Gideon, By the three hundred men that lapped will I save you, and deliver the Midianites into thine hand: and let all the other people go every man unto his place.

[K Frame]

"How do you kow the Taliban werent more moderate after they took over?"

Maybe the reports of their former supporters among the Afghani people, who turned against them as the Taliban became more and more repressive.

Nah....


"You can always find exceptions..."

Yes, yes you can. Unfortunately, though, groups that become "legitimized" by becoming controllers of their respective governments RARELY become more moderate. They're not an exception, they're the norm.

But just for kicks, let's take a look at a few more, governments that came into power by a combination of violence and electoral processes...

The Nazis
The Italian Fascists
The Communists in the Soviet Union, China, and North Korea.
The Khemer Rouge (sp?)

History is resplendent with examples of these groups that rise to power by violence and expand their violence monumentally.

This is but another example of a government coming in to power populated by leaders who have supported active terrorism for years, who profess at every point that Israle must be removed from the face of the earth, etc.


Tell me, just how realistic is it to expect that this group is somehow going to moderate all of a sudden, start controlling their terrorist factions (something that they've refused to do for years), and move back from their stance that Israel should be destroyed?

Maybe your right. Hopefully they will have a flash of Allah-inspired humanity and continue the peace process and clamp down on their terrorist supporters.

I, however, don't hold any illusions of that happening any time soon.

[The Rabbi]

It's the Khmer Rouge.  And they weren't elected, iirc.
And since you mention the Communist Chinese, have you seen them lately?

I doubt that Hamas is going to make the PA the next Luxembourg, a model of tolerance and peace and striving for economic goals.
But I also doubt that they will continue their rhetoric unmoderated and make policy decisions that reflect that extreme rhetoric.  I could be wrong.  But I doubt it.
There is no real change in the PA.  Maybe Hamas will even be better than Fatah, which was the most corrupt regime this side of Pyongyang.

[Antibubba]

With Sharon in a coma, the Palestinians can no longer use him and his past deeds as an excuse for attacking Israel.  Hamas has gotten support through the charities and infrastructure they've built up; now that they will be in power they have a great deal more to lose than Fatah did, if they squander this opportunity.  I'm betting, with pressure from Jordan, that they will recognize Israel's right to exist-which would open the doors for other Arab states.  The only countries the Arabs hate and fear more than Israel is every other Arab country-do you think the Saudis or Brunei want a nuclear Iraq?

[The Rabbi]

The palestinians dont, and have never, needed an excuse to attack Israel.
But I agree with the rest of your post.

[garrettwc]

Then you havent been following this.  I am obviously no fan of Hamas but they have a huge network of schools, hospitals, clinics, food kitchens etc etc.  People remember that.  Sure they support and favor their own.  But their support is not predicated just on that.

I was not aware that it was that extensive. However, the good does not outshine the bad that I have seen.

I think I follow better what you meant by 'moderate'. I think that moderation comes from responsibility. If they are in power, whatever happens is now their responsibility. They cannot pass the blame off on someone else, and as such they have more incentive to succeed so they can get credit for it.

Given their reputation in the world though, they have an uphill climb.

[K Frame]

"It's the Khmer Rouge.  And they weren't elected, iirc.
And since you mention the Communist Chinese, have you seen them lately?"

Legitimized does not necessarily equal elected, which is why I used the word legitimized.

But, if you want elected, I give you the Italian Fascists and the German Nazis, as I previous did. Both of those groups rose to power on a crest of alms, education, and social order, not unlike what's being claiming for Hamas.

The fact remains that regardless of the manner in which they have come to power -- ballot or bullet -- extremist groups have rarely modified their extremist ways anytime soon.

"Have you seen the Communist Chinese lately..."

Depends on what you mean by lately....

Is Tienamen Square (nearly 40 years after they came to power) lately enough for you?

How about the Great Cultural Revolution? Is that lately enough?

I've also used the example of Iran's theocratic ruling class. It's had nearly 25 years to moderate. Catch any of the recent speeches by their newly elected President?

I said it before, and I'll say it again.

Extremist groups that come to power rarely modify their extremist ways.

What I'm not seeing, though, are any examples of what you would consider to be extremist groups that have taken over governance of a nation and immediately have fallen into the international party line of hemogeny, peace, and prosperity.

I really can't think of any.

Can you?

Don't get me wrong. I hope that you're right.

But history provides us with a far greater number of examples of what I'm talking about.

Stone cold idealistic maniacs don't become Henry Kissingers simply because they suddently sit up and say "My God, I just got a popular mandate through a plebiscite! I need to straighten up and change my ways!"

Most frequently they say "Those stupid bastards actually gave me legitimate power... Time to kick ass and erase names..."

[stevelyn]

The people voted them in. They are part of the lawfully elected govt. It would be in everyone's best interests to recognize that fact and deal with them as such (although Duhbyuh disagrees).
 The IRA stopped its operations. Hamas should be given the same benefit of the doubt.

[The Rabbi]

"It's the Khmer Rouge.  And they weren't elected, iirc.
And since you mention the Communist Chinese, have you seen them lately?"

But, if you want elected, I give you the Italian Fascists and the German Nazis, as I previous did. Both of those groups rose to power on a crest of alms, education, and social order, not unlike what's being claiming for Hamas.

That was 65 years ago.  World was a different place.


 

"Have you seen the Communist Chinese lately..."

Depends on what you mean by lately....

Is Tienamen Square (nearly 40 years after they came to power) lately enough for you?

How about the Great Cultural Revolution? Is that lately enough?

Tiennamen Square was 20 years ago.  Cultural Revolution was 30 years ago.
Twenty years ago could anyone have imagined a Chinese stock market? Could anyone have imagined a capitalist Hong Kong under Chinese control?  No, I don't think so.

I've also used the example of Iran's theocratic ruling class. It's had nearly 25 years to moderate. Catch any of the recent speeches by their newly elected President?

Speeches are speeches.  In policy it is probably no worse than it was, maybe better.  Besides, the Middle East is a strange place.

Extremist groups that come to power rarely modify their extremist ways.

What I'm not seeing, though, are any examples of what you would consider to be extremist groups that have taken over governance of a nation and immediately have fallen into the international party line of hemogeny, peace, and prosperity.

I really can't think of any.

Labour in the mid-80's was essentially an extremist group in Britain.  When Likud was first elected in Israel it was considered extremist.  When Sharon was first elected PM he was considered a right wing extremist.
Look at Vietnam's communinsts, now competing with China for foreign capital.  I wont argue that Vietnam is a paradise of openess and freedom--it isnt.  But it is unrecognizable compared with what they were in 1975.
Pinochet was a right-wing extremist in Chile and created one of the freeest economies in South America.

Stone cold idealistic maniacs don't become Henry Kissingers simply because they suddently sit up and say "My God, I just got a popular mandate through a plebiscite! I need to straighten up and change my ways!"

No, but international pressure and the demands of governing and actually getting something done mitigate against ideology.  You mention Iran.  Is it any surprise that Iranians ahve been protesting their government, or that they gov't had to stage a crack-down on protests and dissidents?  Or that their president was elected in a rigged event.  I suspect they are in their last stages.
I'll add here that Hamas is no worse than Fatah was.  Actually is probably better in some ways.  Both terrorists, both with serious blood on their hands.  But even Hamas will have to recognize reality just across the border.

[garrettwc]

Rabbi, what's your take on this newest report?

Israel, Fatah Move to Isolate Hamas Government

The enemy of my enemy is my friend?

[The Rabbi]

Rabbi, what's your take on this newest report?

Israel, Fatah Move to Isolate Hamas Government

The enemy of my enemy is my friend?

Linkee no workee.

The theory of Oslo was that Israel would leave it to Arafat to deal with Hamas and other extremists, unburdened by such niceties as civil rights, trials, etc.
Of course Arafat did no such thing, letting Hamas loose on Fatah's own enemies as well as Israel.
It is difficult to see how much more Israel could isolate the PA.  The pics of Israeli tanks surrounding Arafat's HQ in Ramallah were pretty eloquent.
As I said, I don't think there will be any negative change for Israel with Hamas in control.  How many more suicide missions can they launch?  Sheik Yassin's wheelchair is still smoking from the last time they tried this.

[K Frame]

"That was 65 years ago.  World was a different place."

That wasn't your point, though. You claimed that coming into power has some sort of moderating effect on extremist groups in a VERY short period of time, as in within days of their taking power.

How about we ratchet this up to the present, though... Remember what happened in Rawanda? How about Bosnia? Extremeist goverments that came into power and got... well, brutally extreme in very short order.

I'm asking you if you TRULY believe that Hamas will, overnight, moderate its professed stance of supporting terrorism both at home and abroad and its call for the destruction of Israel.

Do you really think that Israel will give Hamas the same kind of time that it took the Chinese or Soviets to become moderate and drop their worst militaristic aspects? Or do you think that the Isralies will squash the Hamas government like a bug if Hamas begins to carry out its stated desire of destroying Israel.

"Mr. Prime Minister, Hamas has carried out another series of attacks against Isralie civilians an interests."

"It's OK, Mr. Security Minister, we only have to wait another 27 years before Hamas sees the light and becomes more moderate."

Yeah. Right, that will really happen.

"Labour in the mid-80's was essentially an extremist group in Britain.... Likud..."

I think you have a very peculiar definition of extremist.

Did Labor or Likud come in to power with the professed aims of destroying say, France or Syria? No.

Did either government come into power on a wave of domestic repression and violence? No.

"Speeches are speeches.  In policy it is probably no worse than it was, maybe better.  Besides, the Middle East is a strange place."

That's also not your original point, either. I'll remind you once again... "Coming into power tends to have a moderating effect on people." Remember, Milosovich and Hitler both came to power with "just speeches."

Iran's ruling party has had 25 years in which to moderate its stance and join the rest of the world. There was a glimmer of hope of that happening in the last decade, and what has happened in Iran? The extremist factions, those that believe in violent, worldwide expansion of extremist Muslim philosophy, have again taken power.

[K Frame]

"How many more suicide missions can they launch?"

You're missing an important factor in the big picture.

While Fatah was tacitly in power, they at least made claims (and did show some progress) that they were cracking down on Hamas extremism and attacks against Israel.

That mitigating factor has now been removed in that Hamas has been asked for form a government as a result of the elections.

Under Hamas, I give the Palestinian Authority no more than a year before Israel invades and takes control of the area again in an effort to stop attacks sponsored by Hamas.

[The Rabbi]

"That was 65 years ago.  World was a different place."

That wasn't your point, though. You claimed that coming into power has some sort of moderating effect on extremist groups in a VERY short period of time, as in within days of their taking power.

How about we ratchet this up to the present, though... Remember what happened in Rawanda? How about Bosnia? Extremeist goverments that came into power and got... well, brutally extreme in very short order.

I'm asking you if you TRULY believe that Hamas will, overnight, moderate its professed stance of supporting terrorism both at home and abroad and its call for the destruction of Israel.

Do you really think that Israel will give Hamas the same kind of time that it took the Chinese or Soviets to become moderate and drop their worst militaristic aspects? Or do you think that the Isralies will squash the Hamas government like a bug if Hamas begins to carry out its stated desire of destroying Israel.

"Mr. Prime Minister, Hamas has carried out another series of attacks against Isralie civilians an interests."

"It's OK, Mr. Security Minister, we only have to wait another 27 years before Hamas sees the light and becomes more moderate."

Yeah. Right, that will really happen.

"Labour in the mid-80's was essentially an extremist group in Britain.... Likud..."

I think you have a very peculiar definition of extremist.

Did Labor or Likud come in to power with the professed aims of destroying say, France or Syria? No.

Did either government come into power on a wave of domestic repression and violence? No.

"Speeches are speeches.  In policy it is probably no worse than it was, maybe better.  Besides, the Middle East is a strange place."

That's also not your original point, either. I'll remind you once again... "Coming into power tends to have a moderating effect on people." Remember, Milosovich and Hitler both came to power with "just speeches."

Iran's ruling party has had 25 years in which to moderate its stance and join the rest of the world. There was a glimmer of hope of that happening in the last decade, and what has happened in Iran? The extremist factions, those that believe in violent, worldwide expansion of extremist Muslim philosophy, have again taken power.

If I had actually written what you allege you would be right.

[The Rabbi]

"How many more suicide missions can they launch?"

You're missing an important factor in the big picture.

While Fatah was tacitly in power, they at least made claims (and did show some progress) that they were cracking down on Hamas extremism and attacks against Israel.

That mitigating factor has now been removed in that Hamas has been asked for form a government as a result of the elections.

Under Hamas, I give the Palestinian Authority no more than a year before Israel invades and takes control of the area again in an effort to stop attacks sponsored by Hamas.

Bull-oney.  They said plenty but the record speaks for itself.  Fatah never "reigned in" anyone.  They were complicit in virtually every suicide mission or attack on Israel in one way or another.  You are buyng into the Israeli Left's version of history, which has been solidly debunked.  Arafat renounced terrorism more times than Kerry has switched sides.  It was nonsense.  You are not dealing with people who actually mean what they say but with people for whom speaking is merely warfare by other means.
Israel has already deployed its strategy for dealing with Palestinian terrorists, and it works just fine.  There will be no more Jenin raids.  They have no incentive to take over the Gaza again and every incentive not to.  This is what the wall is all about.

[Paddy]

If nothing else, it's a good excuse to jack up gas prices here again.  I've been watching it go from $2.39 to $2.53 and now it's $2.69.  Anyway, that's not the point of this thread.

"Meet the new boss same as the old boss".  Clearly, the majority of the fictitious group of people known as "Palestinians" want all Jews dead and gone.  They did themselves a huge disservice IMO by electing a terrorist organization as their 'government'.   What will be the reaction?  Will world sympathy for the 'plight' of the 'Palestinians' decrease?  Will world expectations for 'meaningful negotiations' lower?  It would seem that any further terrorist attacks on Israel can now be laid directly at the PA's doorstep.  No more excuses about 'errant groups' or 'diverse factions'.  Hamas and the PA can now be held directly responsible.  This will give Israel substantially more leeway with regard to military action and simply taking out people and the buildings they're in.

That's a good thing.

[Lennyjoe]

Hey, looks like the Fatah folks are rallying against Hamas and the election results.   Maybe they will break out into a civil war against each other.

[garrettwc]

Linkee no workee.

Sorry about that. I went back to Fox's website and it looks like they have taken the story down and replaced it with updates because of the breaking news.

Hey, looks like the Fatah folks are rallying against Hamas and the election results.   Maybe they will break out into a civil war against each other.

This is in part what the story was referring to. Israel says they are not going to recognize Hamas government and the Fatah said they were not going to allow a joint governmnet with Hamas. It struck me as unique that Israel and Fatah would be on the same side [against Hamas] hence my comment of "the enemy of my enemy..."