University Of CO Analysis Predicts That Romney Will Win Election

[Ron]

FOX NEWS: Bret Baier reports that an academic analysis that has correctly picked the winner of every presidential election since 1980 is forecasting a victory for Mitt Romney. The University of Colorado’s model factors in state-by-state economic conditions, such as unemployment rate and capital income. It predicts Governor Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote and about 320 electoral votes. The study has President Obama losing almost all of the so-called swing states, and predicts that he will finish with only 218 electoral college votes and 47 percent of the popular vote.

Fox News video at link:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/08/22/university_of_colorado_analysis_predicts_that_romney_will_win_election.html

[HankB]

I think I'll bookmark this, though I'm not as enthusiastic about Romney winning as I am at the prospect of Obama losing.

[Scout26]

They (Obama and co.) are getting desperate.

I used to get one E-mail per day from Barak and Michelle.  Now, I get two-three e-mails per day begging for money because they are being out raised and out spent by Romney and Co.   And if I send in $5 I get entered for a chance to be front row (With round trip airfare and accommodations) at the DNC Convention, with Michelle and Barak.      I really don't think they'd want me there.  

Plus when I was in Indy last week, I saw somewhere on the nooz that had polls of the battleground/swing states that showed either dead heats or Romney ahead.   Given that the polls generally are about 3-8% less the what the R's get on election day, that was interesting news.


And can someone explain to me why Wisconsin, that just went through the recall election which Walker won by 8%, is in the column of "Blue/Obama" states?
 

[kgbsquirrel]

And if I send in $5 I get entered for a chance to be front row (With round trip airfare and accommodations) at the DNC Convention, with Michelle and Barak.      I really don't think they'd want me there.  

You know, that almost seems worth the chance of getting to lob that enormous of a monkey wrench into his campaign.    But then the cynic kicks in and figures the "lottery" for such a thing will be no less rigged than a Chicago election.

[MillCreek]

I don't know anything about this predictive model, but does it contend that the economy is the primary determinant of who wins the Presidential election?

[French G.]

They (Obama and co.) are getting desperate.

I used to get one E-mail per day from Barak and Michelle.  Now, I get two-three e-mails per day begging for money because they are being out raised and out spent by Romney and Co.   And if I send in $5 I get entered for a chance to be front row (With round trip airfare and accommodations) at the DNC Convention, with Michelle and Barak.      I really don't think they'd want me there.  

Plus when I was in Indy last week, I saw somewhere on the nooz that had pools of the battleground/swing states that showed either dead heats or Romney ahead.   Given that the polls generally are about 3-8% less the what the R's get on election day, that was interesting news.


And can someone explain to me why Wisconsin, that just went through the recall election which Walker won by 8%, is in the column of "Blue/Obama" states?
 

Mebbe you sit next to Sandra Fluke. That's the only light from the Akin mess, the DNC doubled down on the stupid and are gonn let Fluke et. al talk because obviously the issue that grips the country right now is abortion.

[MechAg94]

Personally, I think Obama's internal polling has been showing him this for a while.  Democrat enthusiasm is down as well. 

[Waitone]

Anyone know if the model factors in voter fraud?  Take it to the bank, voter fraud will be rampant in this election if for no other reason than to retain one, count'm one, senate seat.

Occultic level polling, the polls a campaign really uses, have shown Obama has real problems.  I go back to an election of yesteryear when one Jimmuh Carter tried to get re-elected against Reagan.  The entire campaign was a freakin' horse race according to media (now called main stream media).  30 minutes into the returns Carter concedes.  Then the media fessed up Carter was done 3 months earlier.  Some of the most profitable times for electronic media is an election.  It has a vested interest in keeping people tuned in.  A blow out can not and will not be properly reported.

[MillCreek]

I don't know anything about this predictive model, but does it contend that the economy is the primary determinant of who wins the Presidential election?

As a matter of fact, it is the economy, stupid: http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/analysis-election-factors-points-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says

[Jamie B]

Would this be the same University of CO who had the 3 psychiatrists who were working to straighten out James Holmes'  issues?

Who also left his package for Dr. Lynne Fenton sitting in the mail room for a week?

I would not trust them to predict that the sun was rising tomorrow.

[Perd Hapley]

You know, that almost seems worth the chance of getting to lob that enormous of a monkey wrench into his campaign.   

Racist!

[Scout26]

Mebbe you sit next to Sandra Fluke.

Then I can call her a "Party Favor" on National TV....   

[SADShooter]

Then I can call her a "Party Favor" on National TV....   

And offer coupon shopping suggestions...

[seeker_two]

I could believe the prediction....and I'll predict that we'll see the lowest turnout of Democrat & Independent voters in decades. Simple fact....no one thinks anything will get better no matter who is in office....so why vote?

[Jamie B]

Heard on the radio this evening that my state, OH, was polled @ 49% Obama and 46% Romney.

OH has always been relatively blue, but I'll bet the poll is +/- 3% at least.

[RocketMan]

I'd bet this will be the first time their model breaks down.  Wait and see at this point.

[Ron]

I'd bet this will be the first time their model breaks down.  Wait and see at this point.

I hope you are wrong, but I'm not feeling too positive about Romney/Ryans chances either. Probably because I'm surrounded by lefties, in a lefty state.

I'm wavering, I don't want to vote for Romney but the desire to make a meaningful vote is strong (ie a vote against the home team guy from Illinoying).

Plus I like Ryan for his authenticity. He certainly isn't the ideologue he has been portrayed as at all. He actually practices some state craft. If he defined the direction of the Republican party I might see some hope.

[MicroBalrog]

I'd bet this will be the first time their model breaks down.  Wait and see at this point.

At this point, I suspect Romney sees 'you can't lose this one' as a personal challenge.

[HankB]

Mebbe you sit next to Sandra Fluke. . .

You'd probably get lucky, since this single woman needs thousands of dollars per year of contraception . . . (On the other hand, the days when a shot of penicillin would cure what ails you are long over.  )

[Fitz]

I suspect this model does NOT take into account voter fraud, and as such we will see 4 more of Obama.


My conservative friends have convinced me to hold my nose and vote for Romney.

I'm not ecstatic about it.

Hell, if it weren't for Ryan on the ticket, I probably would stay home

[Boomhauer]

I suspect this model does NOT take into account voter fraud, and as such we will see 4 more of Obama.


My conservative friends have convinced me to hold my nose and vote for Romney.

I'm not ecstatic about it.

Hell, if it weren't for Ryan on the ticket, I probably would stay home

None of us are excited about romney.

And I also expect fraud on a huge scale...also voter intimidation...

[Monkeyleg]

But the liberal "pro-voting" groups say that there's only been a bit over 2,000 cases of alleged voter fraud since 2000, and only a handful of those resulted in convictions.

I guess that there must not have been more people voting than there were registered voters in Milwaukee in 2008, as was reported. The election commission must have miscounted.

I'm sure the study that produced that 2000+ figure used sound methodology. 

[Boomhauer]

But the liberal "pro-voting" groups say that there's only been a bit over 2,000 cases of alleged voter fraud since 2000, and only a handful of those resulted in convictions.

I guess that there must not have been more people voting than there were registered voters in Milwaukee in 2008, as was reported. The election commission must have miscounted.

I'm sure the study that produced that 2000+ figure used sound methodology. 

And let me guess...it was all republicans who committed the voter fraud?

[slingshot]

Personally, I think Obama's internal polling has been showing him this for a while.  Democrat enthusiasm is down as well. 

I think so also which is why his campaign is so negative with the media constantly steering public interest toward the fringe topics such as abortion, gay marriage, and so forth.  But this is no time to relax or become casual about the November election and its potential impacts depending on who wins.  For the Republicans, they must not only win the presidency, but they need majorities in both Houses as well.  I hope that assuming this comes to pass that new laws are not simply rammed down the throats of the American people such as was done by the Democart majorites when Obama/Biden were elected.  I want a positive long term view of solving problems whether they be international or domestic.  But some things need to be done very quickly to give the American people some sort of comfort that government is working for the betterment of the entire USA not fringe elements.  But I believe that the people work toward the betterment of the USA and it is not only a government that controls the show.  I want straigth talk; no BS.  I want to deal with reality not some fantasy view.  The US is what it is and it should remain a country or nation based on the principles from our Constitution and our history. The USA really does have a pretty remarkable history in terms of its impact on the world since its creation.

I really want to go to the movie 2016, to learn.  I believe segments of the movie will be used as campaign ads.

[Hawkmoon]

I hope you are wrong, but I'm not feeling too positive about Romney/Ryans chances either. Probably because I'm surrounded by lefties, in a lefty state.

Heck, I'm surrounded by leftis in a leftist state and I haven't heard anyone actually admit that they'd even think about voting for Obama. I HAVE encountered an awful lot of people who would vote for anyone other than Obama, though.

ANYONE!

This election is going to a classic example of nobody voting for anyone, and everyone who votes making their choice on the basis of "the lesser of two evils."