Author Topic: First two-year increase in crime since 2006  (Read 3426 times)

Perd Hapley

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First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« on: September 27, 2017, 12:57:21 AM »
http://www.dailywire.com/news/21567/report-violent-crime-increased-20-past-two-years-aaron-bandler

Quote
Violent crimes increased nationally last year by 4.1 percent and homicides rose by 8.6 percent, one year after violence increased by 3.9 percent and homicides jumped by 10.8 percent. A total of 17,250 people were murdered in 2016, the F.B.I. said.

While crime over all and violent crime remain well below their levels of the 1980s and 1990s, last year was the first time violent crime increased in consecutive years since 2005 and 2006, according to the F.B.I. data, which is collected from local police departments around the nation and released annually....

"What you worry about is that the trend is broken, and the numbers are going to go back up," said Kleiman. "A 20 percent increase in homicides over the past two years is not trivial. We’ve got what looks like a serious problem here."


I'm tempted to blame Black Lives Matter, but who knows?
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Firethorn

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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2017, 02:36:37 AM »
I'd tend to think that BLM is more likely to be a symptom, not a cause.

And yes, a 20% increase in homicide rates over 2 years is extremely significant.

I'd want to see the details.  Can we get any more specific than just 'homicides' in general?

Is the violence in the cities, or generalized out?  Affecting specific ethnicities specifically?  Gang violence or domestic?  Is it more first degree(planned) or 2nd degree(spontaneous)?  

Can it be accounted for by standard known variations like the economy?  Hell, were we releasing a bunch of prisoners with lead damaged brains?

Roughly speaking, data mining to find the factors that are associated with the extra violence.  I'm learning how to do that right now.

Hawkmoon

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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2017, 07:48:36 AM »
We have had a number of mass shootings recently -- did they fall within the two-year period being reported? I'm inclined to go along with the association to BLM as a general trend.

On the other hand, let's remember that "homicide" means killing a human -- it can include (and I think does, but I don't recall just how the FBI parses their data) murders, accidental shooting deaths, self-defense shootings, and officer-involved shootings.
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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2017, 08:11:44 AM »
So the last two years of the previous administration showed an increase in crime.  surprise surprise surprise.
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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2017, 09:24:34 AM »
Maybe cops stopping aggressive law enforcement, to prevent being crucified when they shoot some thug?   ???

Perd Hapley

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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2017, 10:01:32 AM »
So the last two years of the previous administration showed an increase in crime.  surprise surprise surprise.


With most of the victims being (presumably) non-white. So Trump is to blame.
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makattak

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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2017, 10:11:26 AM »
We have had a number of mass shootings recently -- did they fall within the two-year period being reported? I'm inclined to go along with the association to BLM as a general trend.

17,250 people were murdered last year, according to the article. Mass shootings won't even make 1% of that. I'd be surprised if they were even .5% of that.
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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2017, 11:06:57 AM »
17,250 people were murdered last year, according to the article. Mass shootings won't even make 1% of that. I'd be surprised if they were even .5% of that.

How many of the murders were in Chicago?  How much of the increase can Chicago account for by itself?
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makattak

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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2017, 11:23:32 AM »
How many of the murders were in Chicago?  How much of the increase can Chicago account for by itself?

Chicago: 751 Murders in 2016, increase from 495 in 2015.

256 additional, accounting for 1.5% of the total. Removing Chicago's increase still leaves about a 7% raise in the rest of the country. I'll bet Baltimore has a significant chuck of it, as well.   
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

MechAg94

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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2017, 12:22:26 PM »
Maybe cops stopping aggressive law enforcement, to prevent being crucified when they shoot some thug?   ???
I think that is a big part of it in the big urban areas. 
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RoadKingLarry

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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2017, 12:26:07 PM »
The amazing thing is that the DOJ didn't "adjust" the numbers.
With the way violent crime is reported I wonder how this would stack up if we still used the same methodology of 30 years ago.
Of course they could be counting on the stupidity of the American public. The increase was reported during Trumps admin, must be his fault.
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Scout26

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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2017, 03:22:29 PM »
Good site for tracking (and breaking down) Chicago's homicide numbers.

www.heyjackass.com


As an FYI, when I worked on the west side of Chicago, it was in the Austin/Garfield Park/North Lawndale neighborhoods.   Good Times...


But the rise is in Violent Crimes.  Lots of major cities (and/or city PD's unilaterally) have pulled back/gone fetal.  Active and aggressive policing is out.  CPD, for example only responds* to calls, they are not out there seeking out known/suspected criminals.



*- and even that can be iffy.  Their current modus operandi is to show up at the crime scene, put up the yellow tape, draw the chalk outline, and set out the numbered cones by the shell casings.   Then look concerned as the news cameras show up.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2017, 08:51:44 PM by Amy Schumer »
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Perd Hapley

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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2017, 06:03:10 PM »
Chicago: 751 Murders in 2016, increase from 495 in 2015.

256 additional, accounting for 1.5% of the total. Removing Chicago's increase still leaves about a 7% raise in the rest of the country. I'll bet Baltimore has a significant chuck of it, as well.   


From the article:
Quote
The city with the highest number of murders was Chicago, with 765.
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makattak

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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2017, 10:01:10 AM »

From the article:

And on the site Scout linked, they say there were 806 homicides in 2016.

I'll stick with the website I used that had both 2016 and 2015 numbers. That way, I know they were using the same methodology so I can compare like to like.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

Scout26

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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2017, 04:41:53 PM »
Yep, careful.  There is a difference between homicides, murders, and gun murders.
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Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
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Put our backs to the north wind.
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Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

Perd Hapley

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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2017, 06:49:04 PM »
Yep, careful.  There is a difference between homicides, murders, and gun murders.


Well, yeah. Gun murders are extra sad.
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Angel Eyes

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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2017, 06:53:08 PM »

Well, yeah. Gun murders are extra sad.

Sure.  We hate it when a gun is murdered.
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Re: First two-year increase in crime since 2006
« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2017, 07:27:05 PM »
Firethorn: "Can it be accounted for by standard known variations like the economy?  Hell, were we releasing a bunch of prisoners with lead damaged brains?"

Makattack: "I'll stick with the website I used that had both 2016 and 2015 numbers. That way, I know they were using the same methodology so I can compare like to like."

That was where I was going.  Even subtle changes in definitions and  underlying assumptions can shift a whole body of data to generate different conclusions.