First two-year increase in crime since 2006

[Perd Hapley]

http://www.dailywire.com/news/21567/report-violent-crime-increased-20-past-two-years-aaron-bandler

Violent crimes increased nationally last year by 4.1 percent and homicides rose by 8.6 percent, one year after violence increased by 3.9 percent and homicides jumped by 10.8 percent. A total of 17,250 people were murdered in 2016, the F.B.I. said.

While crime over all and violent crime remain well below their levels of the 1980s and 1990s, last year was the first time violent crime increased in consecutive years since 2005 and 2006, according to the F.B.I. data, which is collected from local police departments around the nation and released annually....

"What you worry about is that the trend is broken, and the numbers are going to go back up," said Kleiman. "A 20 percent increase in homicides over the past two years is not trivial. We’ve got what looks like a serious problem here."

I'm tempted to blame Black Lives Matter, but who knows?

[Firethorn]

I'd tend to think that BLM is more likely to be a symptom, not a cause.

And yes, a 20% increase in homicide rates over 2 years is extremely significant.

I'd want to see the details.  Can we get any more specific than just 'homicides' in general?

Is the violence in the cities, or generalized out?  Affecting specific ethnicities specifically?  Gang violence or domestic?  Is it more first degree(planned) or 2nd degree(spontaneous)?  

Can it be accounted for by standard known variations like the economy?  Hell, were we releasing a bunch of prisoners with lead damaged brains?

Roughly speaking, data mining to find the factors that are associated with the extra violence.  I'm learning how to do that right now.

[Hawkmoon]

We have had a number of mass shootings recently -- did they fall within the two-year period being reported? I'm inclined to go along with the association to BLM as a general trend.

On the other hand, let's remember that "homicide" means killing a human -- it can include (and I think does, but I don't recall just how the FBI parses their data) murders, accidental shooting deaths, self-defense shootings, and officer-involved shootings.

[Jamisjockey]

So the last two years of the previous administration showed an increase in crime.  surprise surprise surprise.

[Pb]

Maybe cops stopping aggressive law enforcement, to prevent being crucified when they shoot some thug?   

[Perd Hapley]

So the last two years of the previous administration showed an increase in crime.  surprise surprise surprise.

With most of the victims being (presumably) non-white. So Trump is to blame.

[makattak]

We have had a number of mass shootings recently -- did they fall within the two-year period being reported? I'm inclined to go along with the association to BLM as a general trend.

17,250 people were murdered last year, according to the article. Mass shootings won't even make 1% of that. I'd be surprised if they were even .5% of that.

[RocketMan]

17,250 people were murdered last year, according to the article. Mass shootings won't even make 1% of that. I'd be surprised if they were even .5% of that.

How many of the murders were in Chicago?  How much of the increase can Chicago account for by itself?

[makattak]

How many of the murders were in Chicago?  How much of the increase can Chicago account for by itself?

Chicago: 751 Murders in 2016, increase from 495 in 2015.

256 additional, accounting for 1.5% of the total. Removing Chicago's increase still leaves about a 7% raise in the rest of the country. I'll bet Baltimore has a significant chuck of it, as well.   

[MechAg94]

Maybe cops stopping aggressive law enforcement, to prevent being crucified when they shoot some thug?   

I think that is a big part of it in the big urban areas. 

[RoadKingLarry]

The amazing thing is that the DOJ didn't "adjust" the numbers.
With the way violent crime is reported I wonder how this would stack up if we still used the same methodology of 30 years ago.
Of course they could be counting on the stupidity of the American public. The increase was reported during Trumps admin, must be his fault.

[Scout26]

Good site for tracking (and breaking down) Chicago's homicide numbers.

www.heyjackass.com


As an FYI, when I worked on the west side of Chicago, it was in the Austin/Garfield Park/North Lawndale neighborhoods.   Good Times...


But the rise is in Violent Crimes.  Lots of major cities (and/or city PD's unilaterally) have pulled back/gone fetal.  Active and aggressive policing is out.  CPD, for example only responds* to calls, they are not out there seeking out known/suspected criminals.



*- and even that can be iffy.  Their current modus operandi is to show up at the crime scene, put up the yellow tape, draw the chalk outline, and set out the numbered cones by the shell casings.   Then look concerned as the news cameras show up.

[Perd Hapley]

Chicago: 751 Murders in 2016, increase from 495 in 2015.

256 additional, accounting for 1.5% of the total. Removing Chicago's increase still leaves about a 7% raise in the rest of the country. I'll bet Baltimore has a significant chuck of it, as well.   

From the article:

The city with the highest number of murders was Chicago, with 765.

[makattak]

From the article:

And on the site Scout linked, they say there were 806 homicides in 2016.

I'll stick with the website I used that had both 2016 and 2015 numbers. That way, I know they were using the same methodology so I can compare like to like.

[Scout26]

Yep, careful.  There is a difference between homicides, murders, and gun murders.

[Perd Hapley]

Yep, careful.  There is a difference between homicides, murders, and gun murders.

Well, yeah. Gun murders are extra sad.

[Angel Eyes]

Well, yeah. Gun murders are extra sad.

Sure.  We hate it when a gun is murdered.

[230RN]

Firethorn: "Can it be accounted for by standard known variations like the economy?  Hell, were we releasing a bunch of prisoners with lead damaged brains?"

Makattack: "I'll stick with the website I used that had both 2016 and 2015 numbers. That way, I know they were using the same methodology so I can compare like to like."

That was where I was going.  Even subtle changes in definitions and  underlying assumptions can shift a whole body of data to generate different conclusions.