No New Non-Electric Vehicles in CA After 2035

[Nick1911]

Lets understand this problem with some facts.

In 2020, California consumed 1380.7 trillion BTU's of motor gasoline in the transportation sector [cite].
In 2021 California produced 193,569 GW-hr of electrical power. [cite]
The average electric car kWh per 100 miles (kWh/100 mi) is 34.6. This works out as 0.346kWh per mile. [cite]
Gasoline contains about 120k btu per gallon.  A 30 MPG car will therefore consume 4000 BTU_th per mile.
 
California gasoline consumption equates to 3.5x10¹¹ miles driven, assuming 30MPG.    For average electric cars to travel this distance, they would consume 1.2x10¹¹ kw-hr. 
1.2x10¹⁴ wh-hr / 1.94x10¹⁴ ≈ 0.62.

Conclusion:  If all gasoline energy used for transportation in California were to be replaced with electrical power (with the above assumptions) the electrical demand from transportation would consume 62% of existing generating capacity.

California will need to massively increase it's electrical generation capacity if this proposal is to work.

[dogmush]

FWIW I did that same math with the whole US last year, and the numbers were pretty similar. We need to add about 75% to our electrical grid to switch to all electric cars.

Couple that with the already rising electrical consumption of most homes and we need to basically double our electrical generation in the next decade to decade and a half.

[RocketMan]

Lets understand this problem with some facts.

In 2020, California consumed 1380.7 trillion BTU's of motor gasoline in the transportation sector

<snip>

Conclusion:  If all gasoline energy used for transportation in California were to be replaced with electrical power (with the above assumptions) the electrical demand from transportation would consume 62% of existing generating capacity.

California will need to massively increase it's electrical generation capacity if this proposal is to work.

FWIW I did that same math with the whole US last year, and the numbers were pretty similar. We need to add about 75% to our electrical grid to switch to all electric cars.

Couple that with the already rising electrical consumption of most homes and we need to basically double our electrical generation in the next decade to decade and a half.

Given the above, and that electric cars will likely continue to be much more expensive than their ICE equivalents, it makes one wonder if someone wants to make Americans less mobile?
Or do I just need to screw my tinfoil hat on a little tighter?

[Ben]

Given the above, and that electric cars will likely continue to be much more expensive than their ICE equivalents, it makes one wonder if someone wants to make Americans less mobile?
Or do I just need to screw my tinfoil hat on a little tighter?

There has been a contingent (mostly enviro) wanting that for a long time. No one should live outside of cities. If you live in a city, you should be living in multifamily housing that is tightly packed geographically. That way everything you need (but not necessarily want) to get to is within walking, biking, or public transportation distance.

[Pb]

California will need to massively increase it's electrical generation capacity if this proposal is to work.

Thank you for doing the math.  Given that they aren't going to build a lot of nuke plants, I guess this won't be working.

[Pb]

There has been a contingent (mostly enviro) wanting that for a long time. No one should live outside of cities. If you live in a city, you should be living in multifamily housing that is tightly packed geographically. That way everything you need (but not necessarily want) to get to is within walking, biking, or public transportation distance.

And much much easier for the "elites" to control.

[WLJ]

Lets understand this problem with some facts.

In 2020, California consumed 1380.7 trillion BTU's of motor gasoline in the transportation sector [cite].
In 2021 California produced 193,569 GW-hr of electrical power. [cite]
The average electric car kWh per 100 miles (kWh/100 mi) is 34.6. This works out as 0.346kWh per mile. [cite]
Gasoline contains about 120k btu per gallon.  A 30 MPG car will therefore consume 4000 BTU_th per mile.
 
California gasoline consumption equates to 3.5x10¹¹ miles driven, assuming 30MPG.    For average electric cars to travel this distance, they would consume 1.2x10¹¹ kw-hr. 
1.2x10¹⁴ wh-hr / 1.94x10¹⁴ ≈ 0.62.

Conclusion:  If all gasoline energy used for transportation in California were to be replaced with electrical power (with the above assumptions) the electrical demand from transportation would consume 62% of existing generating capacity.

California will need to massively increase it's electrical generation capacity if this proposal is to work.

Thank you for doing the math.  Given that they aren't going to build a lot of nuke plants, I guess this won't be working.

They're be banning household AC and put a cap on electricity use next
Dem and Hollywood elites will get an exemption of course

[Ben]

They're be banning household AC and put a cap on electricity use next

One of the things they are doing is trying to move people away from gas heating to heat pumps, which while efficient, especially in a CA climate, will really knock electricity use up even more, since at least in the parts of CA I was, gas heating was pretty standard.

[bedlamite]

One of the things they are doing is trying to move people away from gas heating to heat pumps, which while efficient, especially in a CA climate, will really knock electricity use up even more, since at least in the parts of CA I was, gas heating was pretty standard.

Heat pumps don't work so awesome up here in the winter.

[Ben]

Heat pumps don't work so awesome up here in the winter.

Same thing here. I have a propane furnace that kicks in around 27deg. I find the heat pump excellent for cooling in this climate though.

[WLJ]

One of the things they are doing is trying to move people away from gas heating to heat pumps, which while efficient, especially in a CA climate, will really knock electricity use up even more, since at least in the parts of CA I was, gas heating was pretty standard.

Makes sense, lets increase the load on an overloaded system even more. 

[Northwoods]

We put in our wood stove specifically to cut our electric bill in winter.  While the heat pump is decent on the typical 40F day, overnight when it dips in to the mid-20’s or anytime we have a cold snap (day after Christmas last year it got down to 5F, and didn’t get above freezing for a week or more) the electric furnace would otherwise have to kick in a we’d get monsterous bills.

[Hawkmoon]

Thank you for doing the math.  Given that they aren't going to build a lot of nuke plants, I guess this won't be working.

Of course it will work. California will simple demand that Utah, Nevada, and other states produce more electricity for them to buy.

[K Frame]

I've had a heat pump since I moved into this house in 1993.

I've NEVER liked it for home heating.

Yeah, it "heated" the house, but it was never a warming, comforting heat, so I was always shivering under a blanket or breaking out a supplemental electric heater. And still not liking it.

In 2019 I finally got my pellet stove. My electric bills went down to the point where I just about broke even with the cost of pellets. I think the first couple of years I actually saved a bit.

This year, however, pellet prices are up $1 a bag. That's just enough that it will probably cost me a bit more to heat with pellets.

Know what? I don't care. With the pellet stove going it actually puts out warm heat, not tepid "heat" that's actually feels damned cold because of the air currents.

For the last 3 winters I've actually been comfortable. And that's more important to me than anything else.

[dogmush]

Of course it will work. California will simple demand that Utah, Nevada, and other states produce more electricity for them to buy.

That is Cali's master plan.  Get that good clean energy from Nevada that is produced in hydroelectric plants fed by nature's endless bounty of Colorado Rivershed water.......oh wait.

[WLJ]

Of course it will work. California will simple demand that Utah, Nevada, and other states produce more electricity for them to buy share.

For equity of course. Think of all the POC they will be helping by graciously sharing electricity.
EO coming right up.

[Pb]

They're be banning household AC and put a cap on electricity use next

Did you just make this up, or is there a source for this claim?

[Northwoods]

I think that was a prediction, not a statement of fact.

[WLJ]

I think that was a prediction, not a statement of fact.

This

[K Frame]

Did you just make this up, or is there a source for this claim?

The ground work for that is being laid. An increasing number of stories in all sorts of media talking about what an environmental disaster air conditioning has been coupled with "Hey, here's how people in India cope with the heat!"

He's making a prediction.

My prediction is that he's not wrong, and it's not all that far off.

After all, who among us through that, 10 years ago, there would be entire cities in California where you can no longer install any kind of natural gas appliance? Because 10 years ago natural gas was going to save us all because it was such a clean burning fuel!

[WLJ]

Yep
And the reason I said household AC and not AC in general is that there's too many office buildings and other buildings that due to their design would be unusable without it. Office buildings before AC became in general use were designed with open windowed airflow, not so much since.  How many office buildings where you can even open a window are there nowadays? That may change if they continue to have their way for newer buildings

[dogmush]

Many residences are being built on the same "no or limited air exchange" thinking as the office buildings. No climate control would mean tearing down houses and rebuilding the regional building styles of the early 20th century.

[bedlamite]

Many residences are being built on the same "no or limited air exchange" thinking as the office buildings. No climate control would mean tearing down houses and rebuilding the regional building styles of the early 20th century.

We're sorry, no, you can't rebuild it due to environmental restrictions, you must move to this pod in the city.

[WLJ]

Many residences are being built on the same "no or limited air exchange" thinking as the office buildings. No climate control would mean tearing down houses and rebuilding the regional building styles of the early 20th century.

I was thinking houses hold as in houses most of which still has windows you can open so their AC can go. Failed to include many apt/condo buildings and similar when I referred to office buildings.

And btw I was just making a somewhat sarcastic prediction but lately the lefties seem to be determine to make my sarcasm and satire reality

[kgbsquirrel]

Given the above, and that electric cars will likely continue to be much more expensive than their ICE equivalents, it makes one wonder if someone wants to make Americans less mobile?
Or do I just need to screw my tinfoil hat on a little tighter?

Mobility literally is independence and the collectivist b-holes hate that.  Dependent neoserfs are what they desire and they are making it happen.