"It would not surprise me if this is where the speculators get their herd mentality back in sync and drive oil prices slowly upward again."
Except that there are several other gorillas in the room right now, too:
1. Massive global stockpiles.
2. Continuing overproduction, which will generally only get worse with a rise in the price of oil, which makes it more profitable for marginal producers to produce.
3. Iran. Iran has already said that once its markets reopen it's going to pump as much as it can as fast as it can to establish and capture market share. The likely Saudi response to that is going to be PUMPZ MOAR OILZ! It's very likely that they'll get tied into a supply war with Iran.
What we're seeing today, I believe, is a move by traders to get into any commodity class that they can to grab some quick profits. Same with precious metals today, and most other traded commodities. I suspect that this is nothing more than a rather temporary upwards correction.
US gasoline prices should continue to decline in the near term because we're very close to the move to winter blendstock, which is cheaper, and Labor day is the end of the heavy use driving season.
In other words, I may not be bearish, but I'm certainly not bullish.