Sorry, which of my models are you referring to?
I've seen some results of early antibody testing. Sweden is doing quite a few and I think we had results from an early test in New York posted here. Those (severely underpowered as of now) tests implied a massively higher infection rate than other tests show. According to those antibody tests I think Stockholm was nearing 30% historical infection last week and they were thinking that they'd have herd immunity for that city relatively soon. Still, I think it is too early to use such early results for anything important.
I was making a joke that you were modeling.
Cool. So what are the results of that random sample testing compared to the death rates within that cohort?
First round of wide scale testing started on April 20 IIRC correctly, 250 National Guard Solders were sent to packing plants in Iowa that had at least a 10% absentee of employees from illness. Most of these plants were shut down and now are opening back up with limited production.
Numbers were released recently (yesterday) from the testing results. News has said that all employees in these plants have been tested. Iowa hasn't peaked yet either. Iowa isn't releasing death numbers from these plants but they will for the counties the plants are located in with some age/sex demographics.
Perry, IA pork kill 58% of employees tested were positive (730 workers positive)
Waterloo, IA pork kill 17% of employees tested (444 workers positive)
Columbus Junction, IA pork kill 26% of employees tested (221 workers positive)
Tama, IA Beef kill 39% of employees tested (258 workers positive)
Perry isn't far from Des Moines, so those workers are probably shopping in Iowa's largest metro area.
Waterloo, IA is in a group of towns of a couple hundred thousand people.
Other two towns are somewhat rural, but people still travel to bigger cities for wal-mart and such.
Also a wind blade turbine plant in Newton, IA is our latest outbreak in Iowa, those job pay a lot more than packing plants. 17% of employees tested (131 workers positive)
Road construction and roofing jobs will be starting up soon, so some of the workers at the packing plants will be going to those jobs, spreading disease to other groups of people.