Missile Launch off California Coast

[AZRedhawk44]

You jest, but listen to this:

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7038111n&tag=related;photovideo

0:34 to 0:38 in the video, regarding the Vandenberg launch and the Italian SKYNET satellite.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5OHjRFXnFs

This is just footage, no commentary.

The rocket plume is illuminated by the sun.  the sunlight shines on it from the west to the east.  As it shines down on the plume, it shows us the missile is arcing outwards to the west.  If it were an aircraft coming in, the bright part of the plume would be the left side rather than the right side.  The exhaust plume is BETWEEN us and the sun as it climbs, and it gets brighter as it gets higher and further out west because it's travelling faster than the Earth's rotation causes the sun to set.  It gets exposed to more daylight as it goes higher and further west.  An inbound aircraft would have a contrail get darker as it came in, because the western-most end of the trail would be exposed to more sunlight and be higher up.  The eastern end would be lower altitude and see less sunlight to reflect to us.

A high altitude inbound aircraft would have the contrail be brighter on the south side, reflecting the sunlight.  Like this pic:
(borrowed from http://uncinus.wordpress.com/2010/11/09/4/#more-4, where they argue this recent event is a jet contrail and provide this picture as a concrete example of a jet contrail that looks like a missile at sunset)



See how this one has the "bright" side, even during sunset, towards the sun?  That's because the higher altitude and greater distance makes the sun reflect off the south side of the jet contrail.

The south side of the contrail of the recent CA missile is seen as "dark" side because it is reflecting sunlight back out west.

Ergo, this was a missile.

[RoadKingLarry]

Rule out any kind of accidental launch. The number of sequential and simultaneous actions required to launch a missile are pretty daunting.

I'm in for a some kind of missile launch, most likely by us-US.

That area is an instrumented test range, or it was 30 years ago. The odds of on of our adversaries being able to sneak in a launch are pretty slim.

It is my perception that nothing bigger than an ultralight moves in our airspace with out being tracked. Whatever it was was tracked from launch to touchdown.

.mil and .gov just ain't talking. Of course stirring up the FUD could be the goal.

[MicroBalrog]

Is it possible that this was some really-really-SICRIT weapons test?

[Matthew Carberry]

Is it possible that this was some really-really-SICRIT weapons test?

Like we'd tell a foreign national if it was...

[stevelyn]

If the military had an oops moment ND launch of one of their missles, they couldn't admit it as that would be embarrassing.

If someone else launched it and the military dropped the ball and missed the positioning of the launch platform as well as the incoming, they couldn't admit it as that would be embarrassing.

If the persons launching were trying to actually hit LA from 35 miles away and missed, they couldn't admit it as it would be embarrassing since I could probably hit LA from 35 miles away with a 10' piece of pipe full of match heads for fuel launched from the back of a pickup.

So it must have been a weather balloon. NOAA should be embarrassed.

[MicroBalrog]

If the persons launching were trying to actually hit LA from 35 miles away and missed, they couldn't admit it as it would be embarrassing since I could probably hit LA from 35 miles away with a 10' piece of pipe full of match heads for fuel launched from the back of a pickup.

Congrats. You have better skills at this stuff than most Hamas operatives.

[lupinus]

If it's meant to be a secret test why was it not done in a, you know, little more secretive local than one that is visible distance from the coast? Test firing makes sense but there would be no reason to hide it.

[Harold Tuttle]

The grey whales have teamed up with the greys and are about to open a stargate.

Hail to our tentacled overlords!

[280plus]

I'm guessing some civilians with too much time and money on their hands figured out a way to create the illusion of a rocket launch. It seems to me to be moving a bit too slowly as it gets higher. It should be cranking away by the time it gets as high as we've seen.. My thinking is the same on tracking too. If that was ICBM sized they'd be able to track it. The Navy would never do an ICBM test that close to shore. But a small boat that launches a slow moving object and speeds away before it draws any attention could certainly fit the bill. Balloon with smoky/flamey device in tow maybe.

[Leatherneck]

No testing planned by us. There could be a FleetEx, but that would be coordinated and announced. If it was an unacknowledged SAP, they would have prepared a better cover story than "Um. I dunno." If it was a foreign/unknown missile launch, we'd be at DefCon 2 by now. And if it was a rocket at all, we would know all about it in about two seconds.

ERGO, hard as it is to believe based on the commercial video, it likely is a weird set of atmospherics distorting an everyday event like an airliner. My eyes don't believe that, but logic compels the simplest explanation.

TC

[280plus]

But simple explanations are never any fun! 

 

[Jamisjockey]

Obama's escape capsule back to his home planet of Kenyanania, where everyone has a double rainbow in their back yard, and gets to work on a puppy-powered unicorn.

[SADShooter]

Impossible, fibber. No one would have to go to work at all on Kenyanania.

[RevDisk]

No testing planned by us. There could be a FleetEx, but that would be coordinated and announced. If it was an unacknowledged SAP, they would have prepared a better cover story than "Um. I dunno." If it was a foreign/unknown missile launch, we'd be at DefCon 2 by now. And if it was a rocket at all, we would know all about it in about two seconds.

ERGO, hard as it is to believe based on the commercial video, it likely is a weird set of atmospherics distorting an everyday event like an airliner. My eyes don't believe that, but logic compels the simplest explanation.

TC

I've taken to mocking my buddies at NCIS and ONI yesterday and today.  They seem to be taking it rather personal. 

[Tallpine]

Rule out any kind of accidental launch. The number of sequential and simultaneaous actions required to launch a missle are pretty daunting.

Maybe the assistant cook did it 

[280plus]

Maybe they had BBQ beef chunks once too often and they launched the mess chief into orbit to teach him a lesson.  He's going to be pissed when he gets back.

[Zardozimo Oprah Bannedalas]

We had a case not that long ago of one of our submarines crashing into one of our surface naval vessels, which is something the sub couldn't've possibly missed, had the sonar(?) guy actually been at his post. Though I would think NORAD would have multiple redundant systems, I wouldn't give anybody the nod for infallibility. Especially since they think they can track Santa Claus. If they lie to us about that, what else are they lying about? 

[Gowen]

I wonder if it was a "failed" test of an Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System?   Since it failed, nobody is admitting anything.  Another question, has there been a report of a splash down anywhere?

[Matthew Carberry]

It was a manned launch, but something went wrong.

It will splash down on a planet where apes, not men, rule...

But there will be a twist ending.

[AJ Dual]

It was a manned launch, but something went wrong.

It will splash down on a planet where apes, not men, rule...

But there will be a twist ending.

I got in HUGE trouble with Mrs. Dual and some friends when I made a snide comment at the ending of the re-make. Something in essence as to: "And that's different HOW?"

It was supposed to simply be a disparaging comment about Washington D.C. in general, but too late I realized they thought what I said was supposed to be racial. Ooops.  

[seeker_two]

I've taken to mocking my buddies at NCIS and ONI yesterday and today.  They seem to be taking it rather personal. 

Don't you make Abby cry!.....or I'll have to get all Gibbs on you.....   

[Leatherneck]

Sorry, I didn't realize you guys had reverted to your primitive form while I wasn't watching. I'll grant you this: the best--really BEST--conspiracy theories are here. 

TC

[Waitone]

How'bout blaming the norks who
--have subs and use'em.
--tend to shoot missiles near populated areas into the water.
--relish thumbing eyes belonging to South Korea (impending G20 meeting) and US

[230RN]

Atlantis is rising again.  Wants to wiggle into a seat on the UN Security Council.  Muscle-flexing.

I see it as a missile launch and someone screwed up the timetable because the International Date line is out there and there was an order-maker on one side of it and an order-taker on the other.



^ Confusing, wot?

Now all the hush-hush is because they're trying to locate a potential retiree and a potential polar bear temperature-taker.

Y'all remeber the missed Mars shot because someone was calulating in metric and someone else was reading in English.  I'm sure everybody triple-cross-checked their own individual conclusions on that one, too.

Terry, 230RN

[AZRedhawk44]

I see it as a missile launch and someone screwed up the timetable becuse the International Date line is out there and there was an order-maker on one side of it and an order-taker on the other.

^^^ This theory is made of win and longcats.

The splashdown zone would indeed be past the IDL for an ICBM, and about 18-20 hours "ahead" according to anyone in CA or just off its coast.  Add in the off-date regional warning for CA sailors and aviators to stay away, and you've got a neat confluence of "oh, $#!+" going on.

However:

Do naval orders all synchronize against a particular clock?  Either Mordor on the Potomac's time, or GMT?  Or do they run all over Aircraft Carriers and submarines, changing clocks whenever they cross a time zone?