War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....

[dogmush]

I haven't done a deep dive into this particular logistical solution, but to my knowledge we aren't using Military Sealift Command (MSC) ships for this.  I think I would have noticed an MSC mobilization big enough to support this, so probably SDDC Chartered civilian ships.

There are not a lot of open source pictures on Ukrainian military aid on ships.  For obvious reasons we don't necessarily advertise which ships are moving what, but a nation state level intel service could probably figure it out.

And obviously, if a MSC ship gets underway, it's almost certainly got military stuff on it.

[MillCreek]

Can you tell which ships are SDDC chartered ships?  Or are they just any breakbulk, RORO or container ships such that you would have a difficult time figuring out which ships are carrying arms?  Not ever having thought about it at all, I would have assumed that everything that can fit into a container does so, for ease of shipping.  Clearly vehicles and oversize cargo won't, but if we are sending a million rifle rounds to Ukraine, do they go by container?

[dogmush]

Yes, there are open source ways to figure out which ships are likely carrying military aid.

[Boomhauer]

if nothing else there is almost certainly intelligence gathering going on at the ports and probably in the shipping lines themselves.

[MillCreek]

A couple of years ago, I was driving south on I-5 to the hospital in Olympia and I was behind a convoy from Ft. Lewis also driving south.  I did not think much of it until I saw the local news that night.  The vehicles were loading on a commercial RORO ship at the Port of Olympia to be shipped somewhere overseas. I remember thinking how odd that they were not loading on a Navy ship.

[dogmush]

Our "Navy" sealift is predominantly handled by Military Sealift Command. which is a mix of United States Navy Ships (USNS Whatever) and long term charters.  The USNS ships are civilian crewed, and they tend to be more specialized use ships (Large Medium-Speed Roll-on/Roll-off, Expeditionary Fast Transports, Maritime Prepositioned Stocks, etc.)  The MSC Long term charter ships are just normal cargo ships we have sole us of.  They tend to be a mix of breakbulk cargo/container ships and RO/RO ships.  The "civilian" ship you saw in Olympia was almost certainly one of those as they tend to be the choice for moving units Battalion and larger.  Excluding oilers there are 33 USNS Cargo ships (Dry cargo or RO/RO) available to MSC and 20 of them are supposed to be Prepositioning ships (although they aren't all prepositioned at all times)

On top of that, SDDC (Surface Deployment and Distribution Command) has contracts with common carriers for when we need to move less than a ship's worth of stuff.  So when your unit loads their office supplies up in 5 connexs in Germany and ships it back CONUS, it probably goes on a civilian ship just like normal sea freight.

How much stuff is moving at once, how sensitive it is, how much we are willing to spend, and how important the delivery timeline is all play a part into which mode of sea freight the US chooses to move stuff around the world.

If you are saying to yourself "Wow, does it make sense to have so much important logistics tied up and dependent on civilian ships and crews when we are looking at a near-peer conflict with countries capable of closing sea lanes?" you are not the only one,

[K Frame]

So, since the weapons aren't being moved on US owned ships, an attack on one of those ships likely wouldn't generate the same kind of response as if it were made on a US military asset, is my guess.

[dogmush]

So, since the weapons aren't being moved on US owned ships, an attack on one of those ships likely wouldn't generate the same kind of response as if it were made on a US military asset, is my guess.

Probably.  Although response may be hard to predict after the press corps gets a hold of the story (ref: USS Maine and Lusitania)

I'm not saying it's a great idea, or guarnteed not to provoke a response.  I'm just trying to put myself in the shoes of a Russian planner, looking at a war that would be over already but for an unending resupply of weapons and ammo from the US and NATO and completely rebuffed (again by the US and NATO) overtures to negotiate a peace.  They've got a couple choices:  Kill all the fighting age people Ukraine feels like sending (and any more that the rest of the world sneaks in), lose, or interrupt Ukraine's resupply.

I guess the other option is to hold out for Nov and see if the US votes to take itself out of the war, but as mentioned, Congress is moving to shut that choice off for the next CinC, and Western Europe has pledged to continue delivering weapons and ammo even if the US quits.  So back to the aforementioned three choices.

If you're asking me where my money goes, I'm thinking the globalists are going to get their large scale European war.  Something's going to happen that makes NATO say we gotta go into Russia.  The west is perfectly capable of producing casus belli when it wants to.

[Boomhauer]

A large portion of Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising was about the Soviets attempting to close sea lanes in order to choke out NATO forces in Europe.

[K Frame]

A large portion of Tom Clancy’s Red Storm Rising was about the Soviets attempting to close sea lanes in order to choke out NATO forces in Europe.

Yep...

But that premise was based on Soviet forces that were actually a LOT more capable and better armed than current Russian Federation forces have shown themselves to be.

[Angel Eyes]

(apologies if this has already been posted)

Chinese mercenary fighting for Russia describes combat in Ukraine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_jdfaI5dyQ

His description of the drone warfare and communications problems is particularly interesting.

[K Frame]

"Although response may be hard to predict after the press corps gets a hold of the story (ref: USS Maine and Lusitania)"

I think a critical difference between those two historic scenarios and a potential scenario as describe below (Russia or Russian proxies sinking a non-US ship loaded with US weapons) is that both the Maine and the Lusitania involved the deaths of a significant number of Americans, where the sinking of a non-US cargo ship would likely involve no, or very few, Americans.

That said, the press beating the drums over the American deaths on the Lusitania wasn't particularly successful in bringing the US into the war with Germany. It added to the list of US grievances, but it was still almost 2 years until the US entered the war, with the final "straw" being the Zimmerman telegram (which followed Germany's resumption of unrestricted submarine warfare).

[WLJ]

"Although response may be hard to predict after the press corps gets a hold of the story (ref: USS Maine and Lusitania)"

I think a critical difference between those two historic scenarios and a potential scenario as describe below (Russia or Russian proxies sinking a non-US ship loaded with US weapons) is that both the Maine and the Lusitania involved the deaths of a significant number of Americans, where the sinking of a non-US cargo ship would likely involve no, or very few, Americans.

That said, the press beating the drums over the American deaths on the Lusitania wasn't particularly successful in bringing the US into the war with Germany. It added to the list of US grievances, but it was still almost 2 years until the US entered the war, with the final "straw" being the Zimmerman telegram (which followed Germany's resumption of unrestricted submarine warfare).

And IIRC Wilson didn't push for it until after the 2016 election where he ran on the slogan “he kept us out of war". After the election he as Obama would say "pivoted"

[K Frame]

And IIRC Wilson didn't push for it until after the 2016 election where he ran on the slogan “he kept us out of war". After the election he as Obama would say "pivoted"

That's because the Germans didn't resume unrestricted submarine warfare until after the 1916 election, and the Zimmerman telegram didn't surface until January 1917, and was confirmed as genuine by the Germans in March 1917.

So yeah, Wilson kept the US out of war until the Germans kept upping the ante.

[cordex]

And IIRC Wilson didn't push for it until after the 2016 election where he ran on the slogan “he kept us out of war". After the election he as Obama would say "pivoted"

You've got to admit, It was kind of impressive for Wilson to not push for entry into WWI until after 2016.

[Angel Eyes]

You've got to admit, It was kind of impressive for Wilson to not push for entry into WWI until after 2016.

Smart-ass. 

[Ben]

Some interesting youtube propaganda:

Yesterday, several videos from this channel popped up on my youtube recommendations. After watching the first fishy one, I went to the channel and watched more, and it is clearly Ukrainian propaganda. Poorly done, IMO. Close to what you might expect from NorKo.

https://www.youtube.com/@UNITED24media

Then today, videos from this channel started showing up in recommendations. Clearly Russian propaganda in the same crappy style as the first channel.

https://www.youtube.com/@Military92

You could almost believe all the videos were done by the same group running both channels.

I will also say that though I mostly support Israel in what they're doing, I'm also getting a ton of pro-Israel propaganda video recommendations as well. Mostly videos supposedly done by either the IDF or individual soldiers.

[Opportunity]

Some interesting youtube propaganda:

Yesterday, several videos from this channel popped up on my youtube recommendations. After watching the first fishy one, I went to the channel and watched more, and it is clearly Ukrainian propaganda. Poorly done, IMO. Close to what you might expect from NorKo.

https://www.youtube.com/@UNITED24media

Then today, videos from this channel started showing up in recommendations. Clearly Russian propaganda in the same crappy style as the first channel.

https://www.youtube.com/@Military92

You could almost believe all the videos were done by the same group running both channels.

I will also say that though I mostly support Israel in what they're doing, I'm also getting a ton of pro-Israel propaganda video recommendations as well. Mostly videos supposedly done by either the IDF or individual soldiers.

YouTube is resting compared to similar channels in Telegram 
By the way, if you believe all these channels, the war has already been practically won. Moreover, both sides )))

[RocketMan]

YouTube is resting compared to similar channels in Telegram 
By the way, if you believe all these channels, the war has already been practically won. Moreover, both sides )))

Good one.   

[Ben]

It appears Ukraine launched a strike on Sevastopol using US supplied missiles. The Russians intercepted them, but debris fell on local beaches killing what looks like dozens and wounding hundreds of civilians.

It also appears that at the exact same time, A Globalhawk was flying a sortie in the area, most likely doing routine recon on Sevastopol. S2 Underground makes a couple of food for thought points on this.  The Globalhawk mission doesn't normally include painting targets, but the coincidence of it being there at the same time that US missiles were used for attack rather than defense will not look good given the civilian deaths. Or the more pessimistic possibility is that Ukraine knew the Globalhawk would be flying the sortie and timed their attack to coincide with its flyby, potentially to force more involvement by the US if Russia escalates due to the civilian deaths.

https://youtu.be/-x6GD0gKslQ

[Opportunity]

As far as I understand, Globalhawk had some troubles over the Black Sea, perhaps turbulence?

[Ben]

As far as I understand, Globalhawk had some troubles over the Black Sea, perhaps turbulence?

I haven't seen anything in the US news on that, but they don't report a lot of things.

[WLJ]

It also appears that at the exact same time, A Globalhawk was flying a sortie in the area, most likely doing routine recon on Sevastopol. S2 Underground makes a couple of food for thought points on this.  The Globalhawk mission doesn't normally include painting targets, but the coincidence of it being there at the same time that US missiles were used for attack rather than defense will not look good given the civilian deaths. Or the more pessimistic possibility is that Ukraine knew the Globalhawk would be flying the sortie and timed their attack to coincide with its flyby, potentially to force more involvement by the US if Russia escalates due to the civilian deaths.

https://youtu.be/-x6GD0gKslQ

I haven't looked in a while but Globalhawks would show up all the time on Flightradar24 buzzing around the Black Sea so one being in the area is more or less routine since the current dust up started. If they show up on Flightradar24 they have a transmitting transponder so not exactly a secret. 

[Angel Eyes]

It's good to be a Zelenskyy:

https://x.com/aussiecossack/status/1807774973047758873

The missus just bought a brand new Bugatti.

[BobR]

It's good to be a Zelenskyy:

https://x.com/aussiecossack/status/1807774973047758873

The missus just bought a brand new Bugatti.

Sounds like Bibi needs to buy a new Bugatti so he can get the full support of the Schumacher Group, and perhaps the rest of France to go out on a limb and state their public support for the Israeli nation and people. 

bob