Author Topic: EVs not ready for prime time?  (Read 13452 times)

Ben

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #50 on: December 15, 2023, 02:45:00 PM »
It's just virtue signaling for Beltway Cocktail parties. 

Well, the beltway is where their plan will actually work. They never seem to think about how far-reaching geographically their own organization is. I recall in my day Obama came out with some "25% of all fleet vehicles at a location have to be alternative fuel". We got stuck with a propane van that the enviros in the office were all jazzed about until they had to find places to fill it up.

I recall I got us out of that mess at the time with a grey area loophole regarding E85 vehicles. The E85 would qualify even if there was no E85 fuel available at your duty station. So the van got swapped for some E85 Ford compact.
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MillCreek

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #51 on: December 15, 2023, 03:45:48 PM »
Having some sort of cheap 4-seater glorified electric golf cart with a top speed of 30-35mph (and limited to such streets) for small city/suburbanites would make sense too, keep the gas or bigger electric vehicle for leaving town. I live in a town on 25k and something like that would fit for the majority of the people just for day to day in town driving. I have 3 roads withing city limits that are over 35mph. One stretch is 45mph for about 3/4 mile to Walmart and a small shopping center. that could easily have the speed reduced from 45-35 for that 3/4 mile. The other roads are in a more rural, aka farm fields and industrial part of town.

My ex wife lives in the Phoenix area now and she says upgraded golf carts are all over the road in the golf community that she lives in and other parts of town.
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Hawkmoon

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #52 on: December 15, 2023, 05:49:49 PM »
As I said before they need to come up with some univeral standard battery packs that can be swapped out at "filling stations". You don't own a battery, you just rent it. Like the Blue Rhino for propane tanks.

Pull into a bay, the battery is swapped out with a fully charged one and you're on your way.

Have you looked at the battery pack for a Tesla recently?
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charby

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #53 on: December 15, 2023, 06:21:45 PM »
Have you looked at the battery pack for a Tesla recently?

That is thinking in terms of yesterday. Think for the future.
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Northwoods

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #54 on: December 15, 2023, 07:02:26 PM »
Tesla at one point claimed that quick swap battery packa were going to be a feature.  Given that Elon was able land his rockets and reuse them I am inclined to think it's not exactly simple to design a car for that.
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Northwoods

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #55 on: December 15, 2023, 07:03:54 PM »
My ex wife lives in the Phoenix area now and she says upgraded golf carts are all over the road in the golf community that she lives in and other parts of town.

My parents are in Marana and have one such golf cart. They're quite handy in that environment.
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charby

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #56 on: December 15, 2023, 09:12:22 PM »
Tesla at one point claimed that quick swap battery packa were going to be a feature.  Given that Elon was able land his rockets and reuse them I am inclined to think it's not exactly simple to design a car for that.

I also think about my parent's grandparents, born before the age of the automobile in the late 1800's. Then in less than 30 years after they were born (1920s), all the cars on the road.

Then I look at all the advances in technology in my brief nearly 50 years on this rock.
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AZRedhawk44

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #57 on: December 15, 2023, 09:41:31 PM »
As I said before they need to come up with some univeral standard battery packs that can be swapped out at "filling stations". You don't own a battery, you just rent it. Like the Blue Rhino for propane tanks.

Pull into a bay, the battery is swapped out with a fully charged one and you're on your way.

Except it weighs over 1000 pounds.

And if you have a ~50kWhr battery that is easily swappable, then it is also easily penetrated by water.

Remember, we're talking about gas station quick.  Not Jiffy Lube quick.  Otherwise we're back to recharging a fixed pack.
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MechAg94

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #58 on: December 15, 2023, 10:43:47 PM »
Rather than quick change battery packs, I would rather see more easily recyclable batteries.

I used to hear a lot about hydrogen fuel cells.  Is that a technology that never got far enough?
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K Frame

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #59 on: December 16, 2023, 07:40:56 AM »
They're still working on fuel cells. I still have hopes to see viable fuel cells in my lifetime.

A home powered by an ethanol fuel cell would be very interesting, but research on that type seems to be lagging.
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Boomhauer

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #60 on: December 16, 2023, 08:01:52 AM »
Some of the issues with quick swapping a battery pack like that is the high voltage cables, cooling lines, etc then there is the installed location, lifting equipment, etc for handling the weight.

And while you might get down to “x” time if everything goes perfect, you sure as hell won’t when things aren’t going perfect and definitely are going to be in a pickle when everything goes to hell. Add in cars that AREN’T in new off the dealer lot condition, having gone through minor collisions, road damage, corrosion from salt and dirt, etc and you will have more issues.

Then there is the whole fact that technology is ever marching on so do you expect the battery swap station to stock a variety of them to meet various generations and form factors? There is no such thing as standardization once product improvements start happening.

And who is going to pay the skilled technician to perform this battery swap? Your jiffy lube grade *expletive deleted*tard can’t fix a sandwhich much less do any skilled work on a car, not when they *expletive deleted*ck up simple oil changes. You don’t want a dumbass doing this kind of work and burning you car down because they didn’t do it right. We can’t get enough people in standard repair fields now, where is this massive workforce to staff every battery swap station going to come from in a nation of people who are lazy as the day is long and don’t want to work?




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HankB

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #61 on: December 16, 2023, 08:15:19 AM »
. . . We can’t get enough people in standard repair fields now, where is this massive workforce to staff every battery swap station going to come from in a nation of people who are lazy as the day is long and don’t want to work?
I'm wondering what kind of electrical connections a battery swap station would need to recharge the multitude of batteries they've swapped on a busy morning . . .
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cordex

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #62 on: December 16, 2023, 08:23:06 AM »
I'm wondering what kind of electrical connections a battery swap station would need to recharge the multitude of batteries they've swapped on a busy morning . . .
In actual deployment today, the charging station can slow charge in off-peak hours. It can work. There are some places in Europe and China that do this. It isn’t insurmountable.

Boomhauer’s notes about changes in pack design potentially disrupting compatibility are relevant though.

Ben

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #63 on: December 16, 2023, 08:47:25 AM »
Some of the issues with quick swapping a battery pack

This fella knows what he's talking about.

There are many other potential issues. I can't swap the battery in my gasser without having to reset the monitoring system. I can't imagine that not being the same on an actual battery operated car. Will there be a trained technician at all locations to do this so that non-mechanically inclined drivers don't brick their car? Those techs will be available 24/7, right? Or do I only travel during business hours?

What about battery pack quality? If we're using the propane tank analogy, before I just started always taking mine in for a fill, I would get a pretty good range of swap tanks, from looking brand new, to worrying about leaks, and saw different draws through different tanks. I can't imagine that any company trying to make a profit in battery swap stations wouldn't have a pretty liberal range of "acceptable" before they pulled a pack from rotation. I'd be pissed if I swapped a pack that I was getting a 500 mile range on for a worn out pack that only gave me 250.

I would assume that there would also be pretty invasive and expensive government regulation and inspection protocols put in place.
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RocketMan

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #64 on: December 16, 2023, 09:27:41 AM »
Solid state batteries may resolve a lot of these problems.  Commercial prototypes that are set to be released for testing next year have 50% or more energy density and weigh much less than their Li-Ion counterparts, and can supposedly be recharged in 15-20 minutes.  They are also showing 800-1000 charge cycles while retaining at least 80% of their original capacity.
IIRC, QuantumScape will be working closely with Volkswagen on real-world testing of their prototypes next year.  I am very curious as to how that will turn out.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #65 on: December 16, 2023, 10:36:49 AM »
All of these issues with charging or battery-swapping are probably seen as assets by, um, some people. It sounds like it would be easier to just treat EVs as a subscription service. You drive an EV as long as the charge holds out, and then take it to the nearest Amazon garage to exchange it for another. All your movements are tracked, and your mileage recorded. It starts out as unlimited mileage, but eventually, we have to limit you to 200 miles a day. For the planet, you know. Then 150. Then 40. Then 20, 10, 5, etc. Also, watch what you say about politics anything. Can't be renting transportation to extremists and meat-eaters and such. Or religious freaks. 
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Ben

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #66 on: December 16, 2023, 11:07:04 AM »
All of these issues with charging or battery-swapping are probably seen as assets by, um, some people. It sounds like it would be easier to just treat EVs as a subscription service.

That's kinda like we hear about self-driving cars (which are not in the news so much these days). If cars are self driving, no need to own one. Just call one up on your phone. Pretty sure it's all the same people once you follow the money (and politics).
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MechAg94

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #67 on: December 16, 2023, 01:42:19 PM »
Solid state batteries may resolve a lot of these problems.  Commercial prototypes that are set to be released for testing next year have 50% or more energy density and weigh much less than their Li-Ion counterparts, and can supposedly be recharged in 15-20 minutes.  They are also showing 800-1000 charge cycles while retaining at least 80% of their original capacity.
IIRC, QuantumScape will be working closely with Volkswagen on real-world testing of their prototypes next year.  I am very curious as to how that will turn out.
That would be what they need.  Quick battery changes only make sense if the batteries are smaller and light enough to handle. 

Of course, at that point, why not have more batteries in the vehicle to make the range and/or power a lot higher?  Or have a spare battery charging at your house all day that you will swap out at the end of the day?
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Northwoods

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #68 on: December 16, 2023, 01:58:33 PM »
That would be what they need.  Quick battery changes only make sense if the batteries are smaller and light enough to handle. 

Of course, at that point, why not have more batteries in the vehicle to make the range and/or power a lot higher?  Or have a spare battery charging at your house all day that you will swap out at the end of the day?

Part of the allure of solid state batteries is rapid charging.  If you can add 300 miles of charge in 15 minutes why bother making rapidly swappable batteries?

But, charging that rapidly doesn't alleviate the power generation and transmission infrastructure issues.  No matter who fast they can charge, or how small/light they are, or how many charge cycles they can tolerate, if the power isn't being produced or transmitted to the charging station it won't matter.

And at the same time the people pushing BEVs are trying to dismantle every coal, gas, or oil power plant, tear down all the hydropower dams, and stop every nuclear project from going anywhere.  Plus ban natural gas and propane appliances and home heating systems.
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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #69 on: December 16, 2023, 02:17:42 PM »
Part of the allure of solid state batteries is rapid charging.  If you can add 300 miles of charge in 15 minutes why bother making rapidly swappable batteries?

But, charging that rapidly doesn't alleviate the power generation and transmission infrastructure issues.  No matter who fast they can charge, or how small/light they are, or how many charge cycles they can tolerate, if the power isn't being produced or transmitted to the charging station it won't matter.

And at the same time the people pushing BEVs are trying to dismantle every coal, gas, or oil power plant, tear down all the hydropower dams, and stop every nuclear project from going anywhere.  Plus ban natural gas and propane appliances and home heating systems.

And this sometimes makes me wonder if the real agenda is not "saving the earf", instead it's getting people off the roads and restricting their ability to travel.  Getting the majority of people into high density urban housing.  Make them more controllable.
Maybe I need to screw my tinfoil hat on a little tighter.
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lee n. field

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #70 on: December 16, 2023, 04:16:17 PM »
And this sometimes makes me wonder if the real agenda is not "saving the earf", instead it's getting people off the roads and restricting their ability to travel.  Getting the majority of people into high density urban housing.  Make them more controllable.
Maybe I need to screw my tinfoil hat on a little tighter.

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JTHunter

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #71 on: December 16, 2023, 09:54:21 PM »
And this sometimes makes me wonder if the real agenda is not "saving the earf", instead it's getting people off the roads and restricting their ability to travel.  Getting the majority of people into high density urban housing.  Make them more controllable.
Maybe I need to screw my tinfoil hat on a little tighter.

Ergo - "slaves".
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zahc

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #72 on: December 16, 2023, 10:04:34 PM »
Meanwhile

Of course you got to remember what's important here, funneling more money to unions which, surprise!, predominantly vote democrat 

White House takes action to force government workers to travel via electric vehicle, rail
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-takes-action-force-government-workers-travel-electric-vehicle-rail

I cheered when I read this actually. If the regime cares about the environment and they want normals to start changing their habits, they need to eat their own dogfood and do it themselves first.

I've been saying it locally for years. My mayor claims to support biking and transit, because of course all Democrats have to say that, but I've been saying for years she should be required to sell her car and go everywhere by walking and transit for at least a year, then...if she even survived...report back on how practical it is to ride a bike in our city and how "good" our transit is.
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MillCreek

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #73 on: December 17, 2023, 10:17:46 AM »
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lee n. field

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Re: EVs not ready for prime time?
« Reply #74 on: December 17, 2023, 11:19:17 AM »
How other countries see electric vehicles:

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/electric-bikes-offer-climate-solutions-in-asia-africa/

Would not mind having a good quality (no Wish grade crap) E-bike at all.  Trouble is, around here I'd have to bring it inside when not in use, lest it be stolen.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2023, 01:40:49 PM by lee n. field »
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