China quarantines an entire city

[K Frame]

Well this is fun... the FBI has put in a substantial order for masks and sanatizer, and US hospitals are dusting off pandemic response plans.

Maybe it's time to re-examine what I have on hand, and what I should lay away.

[Ben]

Well this is fun... the FBI has put in a substantial order for masks and sanatizer, and US hospitals are dusting off pandemic response plans.

Maybe it's time to re-examine what I have on hand, and what I should lay away.

The market is taking another hit today, supposedly on pandemic fears. Man, why didn't I stockpile N95 masks so I could become a pandemic Barron?

[Jamisjockey]

"We may never know the actual lethality of the disease from the ship- the Americans on board who were infected were whisked away, ostensibly into quarantine on CONUS. We might want to ask ourselves- why would they do this, unless A) the disease isn't very serious or B) the disease is extremely serious."

Or C... it's just serious enough...

Apparently there's been a bunch of tensions between the Japanese and Americans over the handling of the procedures on the ship and that's the big driving factor in why they're pulling the Americans off.

I'm with Mike.  I think it's just serious enough.

A few factors at play:
Chinese cities have terrible pollution which leads to compromised immune systems.  People are packed in like sardines, too.
A quarantine like on a ship, people are packed together.  Expect higher infection rates.

I think the potential is that this goes apeshit in developing cities in places like China and India.  Unhealthy people catching it and dying wholesale.
I'm willing to bet a low mortality rate outside of third world shitholes.

[charby]

Probably going to need 100 masks per person per month for normal activities, this is replacing the mask every time you use it.

[makattak]

I'm with Mike.  I think it's just serious enough.

A few factors at play:
Chinese cities have terrible pollution which leads to compromised immune systems.  People are packed in like sardines, too.
A quarantine like on a ship, people are packed together.  Expect higher infection rates.

I think the potential is that this goes apeshit in developing cities in places like China and India.  Unhealthy people catching it and dying wholesale.
I'm willing to bet a low mortality rate outside of third world shitholes.

South Korea is getting an outbreak started:

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/02/20/South-Korea-reports-first-COVID-19-death-cases-rise-to-104/6161582193510/

This ought to give us a better idea of what happens in a developed country.

[makattak]

NOW, for the tinfoil hat stuff.

https://www.babycenter.com/0_coronavirus-update-few-babies-and-young-children-getting-sic_40006924.bc

I'm seeing reports¹ like this that the deaths are almost universally among people in their 60s and older. Most of the infections are from older sets, too.

Additionally, similar reports¹ say that there are very few children infected. Zero deaths, and very few infections. Some have thought that this means the symptoms are so mild in children that they rarely even get tested.

The article notes that coronavirii tend to infect those older than age 12.



Where's the tinfoil hat stuff? Well, that type of disease sure sounds like a prime candidate for a "Logan's Run" disease, wiping out the elderly so the state doesn't have to pay for medical care after their "social usefulness" is over. (Of course, the death rate would have to be higher to be effective, though.)

I don't think that's what is going on here, but that really sounds like something China might like to have on hand, in case "costs" get too high....





1: The linked article nicely ties both of these issues together. Which, of course, may mean nothing because reporting is generally bad, wrong, and even worse when coming out of China.

[K Frame]

Probably going to need 100 masks per person per month for normal activities, this is replacing the mask every time you use it.

The thing is... the masks apparently don't really do much to keep you from getting the illness, from what I've read.

What they are a lot more effective at is keeping someone who is infected from spreading it.

[K Frame]

"I think the potential is that this goes apeshit in developing cities in places like China and India.  Unhealthy people catching it and dying wholesale.
I'm willing to bet a low mortality rate outside of third world shitholes."

I made that point a few days ago, maybe in this thread, maybe in another, that death rates due to not only Corona but the good old seasonal flu are very likely higher in nations like China (vs the US) because of the differences in supportive care when someone does come down with it.

[K Frame]

My biggest concern isn't about getting sick.

My biggest concern is about disruptions in the supply chain, leading to shortages of food, medications, etc.

I'm going to do a quick inventory tonight and lay in some hard goods -- rice, noodles, beans, canned goods, powdered milk, etc. Stuff that I could survive on for a week or more, if necessary.

[charby]

The thing is... the masks apparently don't really do much to keep you from getting the illness, from what I've read.

What they are a lot more effective at is keeping someone who is infected from spreading it.

That is true, why a surgeon wears a mask, protects the patient.

[Viking]

I'm with Mike.  I think it's just serious enough.

A few factors at play:
Chinese cities have terrible pollution which leads to compromised immune systems.  People are packed in like sardines, too.
A quarantine like on a ship, people are packed together.  Expect higher infection rates.

I think the potential is that this goes apeshit in developing cities in places like China and India.  Unhealthy people catching it and dying wholesale.
I'm willing to bet a low mortality rate outside of third world shitholes.

Add smoking, probably poor food if you're poor (if not outright dangerous, google "gutter oil") and people are going to be worse off.

[AJ Dual]

There's also the issue of the ACE2 receptors that coronavirus attaches to.

I wonder if children have fewer of them. Supposedly men have more than women, and Asians have more than other races/ethnic backgrounds.

That could be why there's been few non-Asian deaths from it so far.

[Hawkmoon]

There's also the issue of the ACE2 receptors that coronavirus attaches to.

I wonder if children have fewer of them. Supposedly men have more than women, and Asians have more than other races/ethnic backgrounds.

That could be why there's been few non-Asian deaths from it so far.

So you're saying the coronavirus is RACIST?

[charby]

There's also the issue of the ACE2 receptors that coronavirus attaches to.

I wonder if children have fewer of them. Supposedly men have more than women, and Asians have more than other races/ethnic backgrounds.

That could be why there's been few non-Asian deaths from it so far.

So Elizabeth Warren has a 1/1024 chance of catching it?

[Jamisjockey]

My biggest concern isn't about getting sick.

My biggest concern is about disruptions in the supply chain, leading to shortages of food, medications, etc.

I'm going to do a quick inventory tonight and lay in some hard goods -- rice, noodles, beans, canned goods, powdered milk, etc. Stuff that I could survive on for a week or more, if necessary.

If it ramps up in China, and even spreads to places like India....it could be a straight *expletive deleted*it show for awhile.

[Ben]

There's also the issue of the ACE2 receptors that coronavirus attaches to.

I wonder if children have fewer of them. Supposedly men have more than women, and Asians have more than other races/ethnic backgrounds.

That could be why there's been few non-Asian deaths from it so far.

That kinda puts a damper on "bioweapon". Why make a weapon that your particular genetics are more susceptible to? Of course they could have been working on making themselves less susceptible and something went wrong.    :)

Without tinfoil, I still think there's some small probability it could have been something they were mucking around with for "reasons", and the crappy commie pinko lab protocols let it get out.

[makattak]

That kinda puts a damper on "bioweapon". Why make a weapon that your particular genetics are more susceptible to? Of course they could have been working on making themselves less susceptible and something went wrong.    :)

Without tinfoil, I still think there's some small probability it could have been something they were mucking around with for "reasons", and the crappy commie pinko lab protocols let it get out.

Unless it was a bioweapon for their own population, as I suggested....

[Ben]

If it ramps up in China, and even spreads to places like India....it could be a straight *expletive deleted*it show for awhile.

Morality and sympathy aside, as say, an alien observer from space, I would be curious as to the global fallout if the virus itself were in fact mostly confined, but devastatingly so, to only areas with major Asian and related populations. North and South America, Europe, Africa, etc. wouldn't be getting sick to any degree with working quarantines in place, but what consequences might there be for them?

Stock market and other economic crashes for sure.

A bunch of cheap made in China stuff not available due to shipping restrictions.

I never see "product of China" food in the grocery stores (at least for staples), but  I would expect US and European (where there may be more Chinese food products) populations will make panic runs that our supply chain structure wouldn't be able to keep up with. So even foodstuff that isn't shipped in from overseas might run short just because "panic" and not being able to restock fast enough from US distribution centers.

[Ben]

Unless it was a bioweapon for their own population, as I suggested....

True, but that seems to be dangerous territory, attempting to engineer by age. I would assume lots could go wrong, including mutation to affect more cohorts.

[MillCreek]

Heck, if the Han Chinese were trying to engineer a genetic bioweapon, I would expect the first targets would be the Tibetans and the Uighurs.

[MechAg94]

Morality and sympathy aside, as say, an alien observer from space, I would be curious as to the global fallout if the virus itself were in fact mostly confined, but devastatingly so, to only areas with major Asian and related populations. North and South America, Europe, Africa, etc. wouldn't be getting sick to any degree with working quarantines in place, but what consequences might there be for them?

Stock market and other economic crashes for sure.

A bunch of cheap made in China stuff not available due to shipping restrictions.

I never see "product of China" food in the grocery stores (at least for staples), but  I would expect US and European (where there may be more Chinese food products) populations will make panic runs that our supply chain structure wouldn't be able to keep up with. So even foodstuff that isn't shipped in from overseas might run short just because "panic" and not being able to restock fast enough from US distribution centers.

As far as runs on groceries, do you think it would happen all at once nationwide?  If not, the system might still be okay. 

Amazon still has Mountain House.   

[MechAg94]

My biggest concern isn't about getting sick.

My biggest concern is about disruptions in the supply chain, leading to shortages of food, medications, etc.

I'm going to do a quick inventory tonight and lay in some hard goods -- rice, noodles, beans, canned goods, powdered milk, etc. Stuff that I could survive on for a week or more, if necessary.

I have some rice, but what I have is a bit old.  I should get some more canned stuff.  I also like those small instant mashed potato packages.  They keep for a good while.  I will have to think about powdered milk or something that would substitute for baking. 

[Jim147]

Store that rice and other dry stuff in the deep freeze if you have room. It will last a long time.

[MechAg94]

That is in part something I am thinking about.  Normally we worry about hurricane preparations down here.  It is almost guaranteed the power will be out for a period of time so you don't plan on that being available.  With this sort of preparation, utilities might be just fine assuming it doesn't get to zombie apocalypse levels.    

[bedlamite]

I have some rice, but what I have is a bit old.  I should get some more canned stuff.  I also like those small instant mashed potato packages.  They keep for a good while.  I will have to think about powdered milk or something that would substitute for baking. 

There has been rice recovered from Egyptian tombs that was still edible.

I fill 1/2 gallon Mason jars, put it in the oven at 250 to dry it, then seal the jars.