"They" will claim that is because we flattened the curve.
The problem is that all the models used already had social distancing and lock downs built into the models.
The data is all suspect and sucks.
Garbage in garbage out.
Our Governor puts out an update every evening. In it he cites numbers for new cases, total cases, number who have been hospitalized*, and total deaths. A week ago he displayed a graph depicting when our "experts" predict the number of hospitalizations will peak for each county in the state.
But it's all BS. If you look at the Johns Hopkins tracking map (probably the most comprehensive database available, but nonetheless entirely dependent on what each state/country reports), there are NO recoveries anywhere in the United States. In order to have data supporting a bell curve graph with a ramp up, a peak, and then a decline, you have to be graphing active cases. Active is going to be the cumulative total of new cases, minus deaths and minus recoveries. If you have no data on recoveries ... you have no bell curve.
*Then I discovered, by accident, that the number the governor is reporting for hospitalizations is not the total number who have been hospitalized, it's the number
currently hospitalized as of the day of the report. That's actually useful if you know how many COVID-19 beds are available across the state, and I guess the governor knows that -- but he hasn't told us. I have complained to my state legislators about the fact that we have no data on recoveries and therefore we have no idea what the active case curve looks like. A week ago I was told that the governor was going to start reporting the number of recoveries as of [last] Wednesday. It didn't happen on Wednesday, and it hasn't happened yet.
All of which tells me that the state government is tossing out numbers to make it appear they have a handle on this when, in fact, we're not doing testing to verify recoveries, so we have no data on recoveries ... which means we have no idea how many active cases we actually have.