Uh... Your "hard math" is based on what?
You're ASSUMING, based upon your model, that each patient will infect three others, if I am able to understand that...
And so forth.
That has not happened. That didn't even happen in isolated populations.
And no, it wasn't because of masks that you could drive a road train through.
You are also ASSUMING that 1% of those infected will die... (down from 2%, but hey...)
And completely disregarding that you are ASSUMING that everyone who catches the bug will present for treatment.
And you are now IGNORING the big bugaboo of "zomg, the asymptomatic walk among us" of the people who catch it, and beat it like a rented stepchild...
In your sick world, all of the non-compliant catch it, and many of them die.
In what seems to have been happening? Some folks get sick. Most don't. Life will go on. Because you don't need to be sick to be immune.
And it has been two years. Not two weeks.
While all the time, we have bureaucrats who are frickin' HOPING for huge numbers to use to justify their programs - and their existence.
Maybe that's why anyone who differs, and looks at "hard math," gets shouted down by the people who have now redefined "science."
They never named every new version of the common cold before. Now they have that power - the power for headlines, and research grants and... power...
How many colds have you had in your life? Here's another one. Don't go visit Gramma if you have the snifflies.