Based on what? The last time we shuttered everything for most of a year, and had race riots combined with anarcho-Marxist-fascist arson parties all summer long?
Okay fistful, I'll bite. Do you really believe that the "excess" deaths this year were due to isolation, economic disaster, general upheaval, despair, and people putting off medical treatments out of fear?
Keep in mind that most of those early deaths being assigned to COVID happened in a clump in April, not in the fall. The race riots and arson parties didn't play into them at all. Back then we were only a few weeks over the "two weeks to flatten the curve" lie, not shuttered for most of a year.
Yeah, I'm not buying it.